Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

We race at Rosehill in Sydney on Saturday, track a soft (6) Thursday morning with more rain on the way & heaviest on race day, don’t expect anything bar a downgrade, could get ugly. We get underway with an 1100m 2yo where I’m with the race experienced (4) THYME TO GO who was well supported on debut when run down late by Knightsbridge who goes around in the Magic Millions later today. That was on a soft (5) surface, her breeding suggests she’ll handle anything worse ok. (1) OUTSPAN was good on debut same race going back then running into trouble, once clear he wound up well & hit the line encouragingly. (10) TATIANA was a solid finishing effort also in the same race whilst (3) ZAMALES perhaps best of the newcomers.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 10 – 3

Suggested Bet: Backing top 2 selections should market allow.

RACE 2

24 acceptors, max of 18 to go around in this week’s Highway. The ‘Highway Man’ Matt Dunn brings the lightly raced (8) CONSIDERED to town for the first time & I’m in her corner. Comfortable winning her two starts prior to spelling she resumed with another win scoring at Lismore with gas in the tank. No weight, rails gate & has won on all 3 surfaces. (18) ROSES IMMINENTE missed a run recently, back from 1600m to 1400m off almost a month, market? (10) SHE WITHIN in the mix, may need it dry though?

Numbers: 8 – 18 – 17 – 10

Suggested Bet: CONSIDERED EACH-WAY.

RACE 3

(6) MOTHER GOOSE looks well placed here dropping back from a stronger race last start when placed from the front. A soft track winner she was out of the money her only start on heavy ground however that was early in her career & can be forgiven. With 56kg she doesn’t look badly placed. (2) CRYPTONIC had favours first up when winning however can improve on her performance at this level last prep when giving away too much start. (3) TEQUILA BABY is racing very well, has no wet track form though?

Numbers: 6 – 2 – 3 – 14

Suggested Bet: MOTHER GOOSE TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 4

Only a small field here however it doesn’t make the race any easier, I can find negatives & positives for all. (3) STORMLAND returned a gelding at Randwick & almost got the money with 60kg, fitter here & drops 2.5kg, he’s won on soft & placed on heavy ground. (2) ESMAHLI brings the Victorian form line, very consistent & with good upside. 4, 5, 6 & 7 all in the mix, market moves & prevailing conditions all important this race.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet: Wide exotics best.

RACE 5

(2) UNSPOKEN brings the stronger form lines however I’d just be wary should we get into the very wet range, although he has won on both surfaces it’s only once & the failures outweigh those wins. On a decent surface the race does look a suitable one for him however I wouldn’t be having my last on. (1) FUTURE HISTORY the class runner, back in trip, perhaps an afterthought as not in the original noms for the race, market? (3) IMPERIALIST in the mix however he’s a hard one to catch also.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 6

Although the barrier on paper doesn’t look all that appealing for (5) ALABAMA FOX the map is a different story with only a few including her likely to push forward. Fitter last start she was able to settle forward & pull out plenty when required in the straight, this is no harder & the claim a big plus. (3) CHANGING COLOURS is close, good fresh there was no money for her second-up suggesting we forgive yet she did run on ok. Gets an additional 100m here however needs to be close enough to strike. Expect sharp improvement from (8) AROHA STONE who had definite excuses second-up.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 8 – 9

Suggested Bet: ALABAMA FOX TO WIN.

RACE 7

Looks a race of many chances. Suggest something each-way the consistent (11) PLACID PEARL who takes on 2400m for the first time however had a run at 2200m two back which should help. Bred to run the trip I liked that late surge last start when running down the leader. (4) RATTLE AND HUM & (5) FORBIDDEN RIFF are the runners in form; the former will go forward & if left alone will take gunning down whilst the latter deserves a crack at something harder.

Numbers: 11 – 4 – 5 – 6

Suggested Bet: PLACID PEARL EACH-WAY (small bet)/Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

(5) BAND OF BROTHERS has been in cracking form this prep, he surprised me successfully stepping up to 1400m & winning three back before placing his last couple over the same trip. Back to 1300m from gate 1 with a 3kg claim it’s very hard to tip against him here. The resuming (4) RHYTHM OF LOVE should be ready to go, just the one outing last prep suggest there were issues, he’s had 4 lead-up trials since November comfortably winning the latest, BIG market watch. (10) RHAPSODY CHIC another market watch, fresh & wet track form is sound, didn’t fire last prep however is better than that.

Numbers: 5 – 4 – 10 – 6

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 9

There was money around for debut winner (12) EXFORTYTHREE & whilst he certainly wasn’t in the ‘off the map’ category he won as he liked trotting to the line for a 3.3L victory at Kembla. Yes, this is a great deal harder however to the eye that win was of a very smart looking horse with plenty of upside. (7) BEV’S NINE is unbeaten & a big watch, he’s trialled very well & should make a competitive return. (11) MASSIRA a likely improver whilst (8) TARAPULIN is worth including should we reach the heavy range.

Numbers: 12 – 7 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet: EXFORTYTHREE EACH-WAY.

RACE 10

The in-form (7) CROSS TASMAN is going to have plenty of supporters in this final race & if we can secure black figures he looks a bet. He lumped 60.5kg to win first up before parked 3 wide all the way at his latest win carrying a couple of kilos less, loved the way he put his rivals away in the straight off such a tough run. (1) PIPPIE BEACH should be just about peaking now & the wetter the better for her. (16) HEREWARD is progressive type with 2 wins on dry ground however importantly 2 placings on heavy.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 16 – 15

Suggested Bet: CROSS TASMAN TO WIN.

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