Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

After last Saturday’s Randwick washout we should be ok for racing at Rosehill this week although the track will again be in the heavy/soft range, yes, we’re still looking at wet trackers for at least one more week. (9) AUDREY’S LANE gets the nod in this opening race dropping back from the mile to 1500m, she will have to offset a wide draw however the map suggests that’s highly likely with a positive early ride & importantly she gets through the ground. (10) MONKHANA strips fitter off the first up run at this level, no more weight & an additional 100m suits. (1) BE REAL definitely in the mix first-up, she put in two good efforts at the beginning of her last prep each in Group 3 company.

Numbers: 9 – 10 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

(4) POWDER MAN will need to offset a wide draw here however his form this prep has been very good at this level really motoring to the line on both occasions. Wet ground is no issue & the additional 100m is a definite positive. (6) ADOLPHUS resumes with a near 100% fresh record, yet to race on heavy ground however his soft track record is a good one with 2 of his 3 career victories on the surface, it’s a clearly better reading than his dry track stats. (10) CHRISTA is lightly raced & showing plenty of promise on country tracks, well drawn can measure up at this level.

Numbers: 4 – 6 – 10 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

(4) NINJA was beaten fair & square on debut in a midweek Kensington maiden when heavily backed into favouritism. He then went south to Kembla & although beating absolutely nothing (3 rivals), did it on heavy ground & by over 11 lengths. I wouldn’t launch into a short price however I am in his corner. (1) SPACE RIDER had some big wraps on him after winning on debut at Eagle Farm late last year before being beaten out of a place at $1.14 same track only other start however there were excuses. Trialling well the wet ground is the unknown. Liked the win of (2) WITHOUT PEER on debut coming with a big finish here on a soft (5), can’t knock.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 2 – 9

Suggested Bet: Box up top 3 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

(8) TUILERIES has been scratched twice in recent weeks due to heavy tracks, what will eventuate today? I’m leaning to (2) SACRED ROCKS who appears a very promising type from one of the country’s premier stables. She’s had no luck with draws of late however gets in a little closer today & the rise back to 1400m is a plus, last couple here on soft (7) ground suggest the going is no issue. Definitely including (8) TUILERIES should she run as her first up run was a good one against the race tempo. (1) PIPPIE BEACH always a chance, wetter the better for her though.

Numbers: 2 – 8 – 1 – 9

Suggested Bet: SACRED ROCKS EACH-WAY.

RACE 5

Highlight of the day is the Listed Rosebud for the new season 3yo’s. Unfortunately there’s no real wet track form to work with which turns the race into a big of a guessing game as there’s some smart types engaged who can win should they handle the damp conditions, will they though? (4) NASHVILLE JACK has race fitness & winning form on his side; he resumed on a soft (6) at Randwick recently finishing strongly for a dominant win. (1) SKYHOOK was prominent in the Slipper lead ups last prep winning the Pago Pago, clearly the best form, will he sink or swim though? Ditto (5) PALLATON who did impress on debut, didn’t quite go on from there however has won both recent lead-up trials.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 5 – 7

Suggested Bet: Box up top 3 selections in exotics.

RACE 6

(14) AMUSING finished too well for her rivals here last month stepping up to 1500m which I firmly believed was aided by getting onto a drier surface. Her next start was also here however on a heavy (10) which was concerning, well it wasn’t for her as she romped in running well clear of her rivals. Wet, dry or whatever she can handle the additional 400m today & win again. (11) PURE ALPHA is a ‘swimmer’ who continues to race well, the wetter the better for him. (2) TRAVOLTA beat home PURE ALPHA last time out however did find the faster lane down the outside fence.

Numbers: 14 – 11 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet: AMUSING EACH-WAY.

RACE 7

(2) ADELAIDE RIVER hasn’t quite lived up to expectations since coming to Australia, in fact he’s yet to finish any better than fourth at 5 attempts. He returns to racing here as a gelding & he’s won all 3 lead-up barrier trials & this is clearly the easiest race he’s contested since arriving. He’s also yet to miss a wet track placing in his career. (7) WAR ETERNAL the clear danger, peaking third-up drops in weight & prefers wet ground to dry. Monitor any positive betting moves for the resuming (3) PALMETTO.

Numbers: 2 – 7 – 3 – 11

Suggested Bet: ADELAIDE RIVER EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

(10) CAPTAIN FURAI’s solid first up second here on a heavy (10) suggests his preferred ground is clearly wet. He struggled all last prep on drier decks however was a completely different horse on the heavy last time & with J. Mac sticking he looks the runner to beat. (12) DENMAN STAR is flying this prep winning fresh with a big finish before solid last time, with the claim for Anna Roper he’ll carry 4kg less weight. (5) PUNTIN continues to race consistently & may appreciate the drop back in distance.

Numbers: 10 – 12 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet: CAPTAIN FURAI TO WIN.

RACE 9

I’m with the pacy (1) BONITA QUEEN who will be looking to show all her natural speed from the outset here. Her recent dominant trial win suggests she’s come back in very good order & although yet to see heavy ground has raced well on soft. (3) RAVENCLAW absolutely bolted in first up on a heavy (10), doubt conditions will be as wet here however cannot knock. (4) ROSELYN’S STAR is a very interesting runner resuming, he ran into some very smart 2yo’s at his initial prep winning and/or placing all 3 starts. Trialling very well & those placings were on soft & heavy ground. Include (7) POLYGLOT who ticks a number of boxes including the going.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 4 – 7

Suggested Bet: BONITA QUEEN EACH-WAY.

RACE 10

(10) BUNKER HUT had also accepted at Doomben however connections have decided to stay at home & run here. Tidy effort fresh when posted wide he was entitled to feel the pinch with the lack of recent racing however that wasn’t the case as he stuck it out right to the line. Well drawn, fitter & the wet ground holds no fears. I’m a big wrap for the very speedy (12) PERFUMIST who impressed last prep putting a string of wins together, market leads & pattern all important, she can definitely win this. (15) GATSBY’S is another smart type resuming, returns a gelding now & is a big market watch with no weight.

Numbers: 10 – 12 – 15 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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