Races

Michael Heaton’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Michael Heaton

RACE 1

COUNTRY GOD is undefeated across a trial and two race starts this preparation and gives the impression the step to 1400m will be ideal. He defeated Riva Aquarama (subsequent winner) and Friar’s Legacy (subsequent winner) last start to strengthen his form even more. CAPE LEEUWIN took full advantage of a soft lead at Pinjarra last start and only rises 1kg from the win. Steps from 1200m to 1400m now but Brad Parnham has options from his inside draw. Stablemate BUNDABERG only won a Maiden last start but did it with ease and won two trials leading into it to suggest he’s come back a bigger and better horse this prep. MY AUTHORITAH wasn’t overly convincing when breaking through at $1.50 first up.

Numbers: 2-1-3-4

Suggested Bet – COUNTRY GOD WIN

RACE 2 

SENSESSIONAL just about ticks every box here. His first-up win in a similar field was soft and whilst he meets them 2kg worse off now, he’s won 3 from 4 second up and is undefeated 4 from 4 at this track/distance. It’d be a big surprise if something turned the tables on him. INVESTMENTSTRATEGY loomed in the same race before peaking on his run and should be improved. He’s never been a first-up horse but typically improves sharply second up (won 2 from 3) and now gets Brad Parnham on who has been aboard him in all 5 of his wins. SENTIMENTAL HERO is first up, no trial at 1600m with 60kg but must still be respected. His first campaign for Peter Fernie last year was remarkable and he has a top fresh record. KAPTAIN KAOS hit the line strongly to produce his best run in a long while last start.

Numbers: 3-5-1-7

Suggested Bet – SENSESSIONAL WIN

RACE 3

HANCHI hasn’t won a race for 616 days but also had more than 12 months off the scene in that time. He didn’t handle the soft-7 track last start but his efforts both 2 and 3 starts back when hitting the line powerfully without much luck were good enough to win this. Like the fact he gets back to Belmont (where 2 of his 3 career wins have come) and Chris Parnham sticks in a smaller field. MADHI GIRL is flying and will be hard to beat again. She’s gunning for a winning hat-trick and drops 1kg off the 7-day back up. DEFERRED resumes off the back of a slashing trial but 1000m looks short of his best trip. CUT THE TALK hasn’t raced for almost 20 months but has a great record and should get the run of the race.

Numbers: 5-3-8-2

Suggested Bet – HANCHI WIN

RACE 4

IMMORTAL BLISS trialled up nicely then couldn’t have been more impressive at his WA debut. He only defeated a moderate C3 field but they went hard and his change up speed and late sectionals were still that of a horse who has the progressiveness to go on with it. There’s a stack of speed engaged here so Pike should be able to sit back and launch late. SNOW GOD drops back to 1000m after hitting the front over 1200m last start and getting gunned down in the final strides. Both of his starts back this prep have been good and he’s a big danger. NONESOSPICY has won 3 of 5 (including 3 of 3 over 1000m) and looks the likely leader but she’s had 4 trials over the past 12 weeks and didn’t set the world on fire in any of them. MILITARY POWER faces much tougher opposition than his last-start win but has been in the money at 6 of his 9 starts at this track/distance.

Numbers: 3-8-4-1

Suggested Bet – IMMORTAL BLISS WIN

RACE 5

Open race. ON PATROL can be tricky to catch with his negative racing pattern but he’s going as well as ever. Won first up in this grade, finished powerfully to be beaten a head second up and wasn’t suited making his run down the middle of the track last start when closer to the fence was the place to be but he was a good run in review. DOCTOR JAY jumped favourite first up but was unsuited on the wrong part of the track. He’s a lightly-raced 5YO with ability who can bounce back. FORTUNE’S LUCK is a consistent mare in and around this grade. She’s stuck on well at her last 2 starts, now gets Pike and can roll forward. KIRALUI will need luck from the gate but she was luckless first up and hit the line better than anything last time out.

Numbers: 3-5-14-8

Suggested Bet – ON PATROL EACH-WAY

RACE 6

MR TALENTINO was heavily backed last Saturday and got the job done. He’s 1 from 1 off a 7-day back up, drops 1kg and can roll forward from his sticky alley in a race where a lot of his main dangers will likely be back in the field. COSMIC CHAOS is ready to win. He’s been building into his campaign nicely and just needs some luck from a tricky draw to find a nice spot in running. TRUE PLAYER backs up off 7 days and gets blinkers on for the first time which is always an important gear change with Team Williams. NOBLE CONNECTION is on trial at the staying distance but has impressed at all 3 starts in easier grade this prep and gives the impression he’ll get the trip.

Numbers: 11-3-7-6

Suggested Bet – MR TALENTINO EACH-WAY

RACE 7

EXCELTRAIN is a model of consistency and was a bit stiff not to finish closer to Little Silver last start after he was momentarily held up behind the leader on straightening. He profiles well at the Belmont 1400m circuit, gets a drier track which he’ll appreciate, should lead this time around and CJP jumps aboard. Looks a nice race for him. LITTLE SILVER is flying and meets Exceltrain 1kg better off for beating him last start. Drawn awkwardly but has the tactical speed to slide across to park in the breeze and can win again. COLD SHIZZLE does his best work at Belmont and caught the eye late last start. He should be ready at his third run back. STREET BAND is yet to tick the 1400m box but was very good first up and never saw daylight last start.

Numbers: 3-4-2-10

Suggested Bet – EXCELTRAIN EACH-WAY

RACE 8

GAGE ROADS may have been advantaged by parking up outside the leader on an on-speed day in his last-start win but he likely lands in the same position again here. He’s super consistent across all tracks and conditions and he’ll look the winner in running again at some stage. AUTUMN REBEL was a terrific return off a lengthy lay off when second to the in-form Little Silver. The extra 200m here suits and he maps to get a lovely run parked just off the speed. HOSTILE TALK backs up off 7 days after hitting the line nicely over 1300m last week and now gets Pike but also rises 300m to a mile for the first time. BECALOTTI steps up 400m at her second run back but trialled well and ran an absolute bolter first up at odds.

Numbers: 4-1-2-7

Suggested Bet – GAGE ROADS EACH-WAY

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

3,5,8,12,14

3,5,6,7,11

2,3,4,10

1,2,4,7,13

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