Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing in Sydney on Saturday comes from Rosehill where we should be going around on near enough to a good rated surface. I’m with the first starter (2) PORTOFINO in this opening event as I don’t see a lot amongst the raced brigade & his trials have certainly been good enough to suggest he has above average ability. Cost plenty at the sales he’s in the Waller camp & should be ready to go. (1) THE MAGIC MAN doesn’t draw well & will need luck, his form last prep was competitive against some of the best juveniles in the country. (5) WITHOUT PEER a market watch, another on debut.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 5 – 6

Suggested Bet: PORTOFINO TO WIN (if not a significant market drifter).

RACE 2

This week’s Midway is over the 1300m trip & it’s a task! I’ll lean to (6) HARRY’S BAR who will be peaking third run back & did run some nice races behind some smart types last prep. She’s won & placed her only two third-up starts to date, hoping she can continue that trend here. (11) PRETTY TAVI maps well from the inside gate, definite claims. (2) DENMAN STAR a chance also, strong to the line first up will appreciate the additional 100m.

Numbers: 6 – 11 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

No shortage of runners in this week’s Highway! Really liked the finishing burst of (1) FIRST LANDING here a fortnight back behind the very much in form Storm The Ramparts. The gate isn’t good however this horse is in cracking form & the double-figure odds appeal on an each-way basis. (2) HIGHWAY STRIP clearly the toughest to beat, resumes with a very good first up record, his career record isn’t a bad one either & there’s plenty of upside with him. (4) SHROPSHIRE LAD can improve with a softer run than last start.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet: FIRST LANDING EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 4

I’m with (12) AMUSING at a good price here to bounce back off a subpar effort last start. She’s only a lightly raced filly who seems to struggle as the ground gets wetter, in my opinion that was the reason for her poor last start performance. Her win at Canterbury on a drying soft (5) track last prep when out to this trip was very impressive showing a sharp sprint. (2) MR VERSE was good first up, 1200m was too short yet he still got it done, 1500m ideal. (1) DON’T FORGET JACK is flying, just keeps running home hard, he’s got plenty of weight to lump though. 5 & 6 in the mix also.

Numbers: 12 – 2 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet: AMUSING EACH-WAY.

RACE 5

The 3yo (5) SPYWIRE takes on the older horses here & I’m more than happy to be in his corner. First up here 3 weeks ago (first outing as a gelding) he drew an inside gate & landed a good run in the race, unfortunately when it came time to launch his winning bid there was no room to move, he had nowhere to go until too late, once clear he ran home well to beat all bar the winner who has since won again. (4) THE GREAT HOUDINI accounted for Puntin last start, that horse has since won & placed in stronger races than this. (1) EYE OF THE FIRE in the mix also.

Numbers: 5 – 4 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet: SPYWIRE TO WIN.

RACE 6

The resuming (7) TUILERIES has opened up short odds in early markets & will likely start in the red here. On what she showed at her last prep she should just prove too good for these & she has looked good at her recent trials. If there’s once concern it’s the wide gate, she’s going to at least need some cover. (1) DOLLAR MAGIC has placed 6 of her 7 tries here, plenty of weight however will give a sight up on speed. (2) QUEEN OF THE MILE hasn’t been far away both runs this prep, should appreciate getting to 1200m & draws softly.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up to 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 7

Difficult looking distance affair which is no surprise. I’m with (9) GENTILESCHI on an each-way basis as she’s the one who in my opinion will be suited by the step up in distance. She weaved her way home nicely here last start behind (2) GOOD BANTER & (3) CORMAC T who she meets once again & better at the weights. That pair do appear the main threats however note GOOD BANTER’s best form does seem to be on rain affected ground which she won’t get today.

Numbers: 9 – 2 – 3 – 10

Suggested Bet: GENTILESCHI EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

Market has this a very open race with multiple runners sharing early favouritism. I’m with the resuming (3) CORNICHE who failed at the single run last prep suggesting there may have been a few issues at play. Given a decent break he’s been trialling well & his record in stronger races suggests if on song will be too strong for the opposition. (2) WITH YOUR BLESSING struck form last prep winning 2 of his 4 outings, he’s won 3 of 8 fresh & has won both lead-up trials. The flying (8) STORM THE RAMPARTS rises in grade however tumbles in weight (8.5kg), cannot leave out.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet: CORNICHE EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

Without any doubt the consistent (1) ROBUSTO was very unlucky here 2 weeks ago when clocking in second behind the roughie Estadio Mestalla. Stuck in traffic at a vital stage in the straight he ran into second placing late once fully clear. He’ll carry no more weight today & was flying last prep winning at Group 2 level. (9) FORTUNATE KISS was underestimated by most when winning the Glasshouse at odds, previous to that ran 3rd in the Eye Liner which has been a very strong form reference. (4) ACCREDITED can bounce back to his best on drier ground.

Numbers: 1 – 9 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet: ROBUSTO TO WIN.

RACE 10

Honestly I can’t see too many winning chances in this final race which looks (4) BUNKER HUT’s to lose. Trapped wide throughout first up he did a good job to go down by just over a length & takes on easier opposition today. Yes, he rises in weight however did win here last prep with 60.5kg (2kg more). Ticks a lot of boxes. The consistent (14) LITTLE COINTREAU can run into another placing whilst (12) KERGUELEN is in the mix, did feel he was disappointing last start though.

Numbers: 4 – 14 – 12 – 6

Suggested Bet: BUNKER HUT TO WIN.

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