Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Group 1 racing at Rosehill on Saturday on what is likely to be wet ground. How wet? That’s crystal ball stuff, guessing soft? The obvious in this opening race is THE EXTREME CAT who is very consistent around this Midway level. Nothing wrong with his effort here last start & back a little in trip suits off a freshen up, handles any give in the ground as well. ALABAMA STATE the toughest to beat, drew wide which was no help his latest, not the case today & ‘Willo’ jumps on board. PEACE OFFICER busting to win one, wide draw no help.

Numbers: 4 – 18 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet: box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

Tipped the Scone mare BALLINDERRY SAL to win at this Highway level last start however in what can only be described as a ‘train wreck’ things didn’t pan out whatsoever with her being posted very deep throughout. With a better gate today & again a light weight I’ll stick. EVERIDO was ok here last start & fitter for it whilst SHOWMAN could run into a placing.

Numbers: 11 – 1 – 7 – 15

Suggested Bet: BALLINDERRY SAL EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 3

Small field, difficult looking staying race. I’ll lean to CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD who was disappointing on face value here at his second local start. His form overseas is solid & he will strip a fitter horse staying at 2400m today, note he was rising 600m last start. CAMPALDINO no weight should be peaking fourth run back, must be included. STRATHAY & THINK ‘N’ FLY in the mix, they come out of a similar type Group 3 race last start, the same race as the top selection.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

Sticking with a favourite of mine MARE OF MOUNT BULLER here. She ran some good races in Brisbane during the winter placing at both Listed & Group 3 level before far from disgraced in the Group 1 Queensland Oaks. She appears to get through all types of going & will enjoy the added fitness & step up in distance. UNUSUAL LEGACY & FORECASTER ran the quinella here 2 weeks ago, this time around the latter is 2.5kg better at the weights for a less than 1L defeat, he might be able to turn the tables. Respecting the Melbourne form from LAUDING who maps well for Tim Clark.

Numbers: 12 – 17 – 8 – 11

Suggested Bet: MARE OF MOUNT BULLER EACH-WAY.

RACE 5

Interesting race. I’ve always been a fan of any barrier trial winner with the Snowden name down as the trainer, they more often than not come out & win first up.  BODYGUARD strolled home in a recent trial scoring by over 6 lengths, there was a little pressure mid straight however make no mistake there was also fuel in the tank on the line. He’s 2 from 2 when fresh & importantly a soft track winner, have to be with him. Can’t sack GATSBY’S on one run which was against stronger opposition, he’ll appreciate the softer going & J. Mac sticks which is a positive pointer. HIGH OCTANE & IKASARA definitely in the mix.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet: BODYGUARD TO WIN.

RACE 6

Track conditions all important here. Should we end up quite damp I’m having something on the Waller trained mare KONASANA who was a Group 3 winner on a very heavy surface at Randwick in the autumn, she then won on a soft (5) same track & trip two starts later. Very soft recent trial she’s a definite market watch wet or dry. BATTLETON doesn’t win out of turn however his last couple have been ok & 1400m is ideal now. WILLAIDOW can improve, suggest goes forward today?

Numbers: 13 – 10 – 12 – 3

Suggested Bet: Monitor weather re top selection.

RACE 7

Small field to go around in the Pendant however a competitive affair awaits, the eventual track condition could be all important. SEMANA appears the way to go, she won the Group 3 Triscay in February before embarking on a run of Group 1 starts placing on 3 occasions, solid in the Winx at her latest this is easier & she handles all types of going very well. AMELIA’S JEWEL ran well first up in the Tramway, no doubt fitter & the small field suits her pattern, just the single start on damp ground when clocking 11.13 for her final 200m on a soft (5) in the 2023 Quokka. TROPICAL SQUALL can bounce back, pulled up lame when resuming.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet: SEMANA TO WIN.

RACE 8

Group 1 Golden Rose, what a race this is going to be! I’m going to back both BROADSIDING & LINEBACKER as I feel one of that pair will win the race. BROADSIDING is a dual Group 1 winner, he’s won 4 of his 7 starts & has been successful on good, soft & heavy ground. His two trial placings have been without pressure running home strongly, I have to lean his way. LINEBACKER really caught my eye first up; he settled a long last however that final 100m or so hard against the fence he picked up plenty of ground. Has a fitness edge on BROADSIDING, will lap up the 1400m & wet ground won’t be a problem. Throw TROPICUS into multi’s, he shapes to really enjoy 1400m.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 2 – 9

Suggested Bet: BROADSIDING/LINEBACKER TO WIN.

RACE 9

Going to tip CELESTIAL LEGEND however I’m wary, get the feeling this is a little acid test for him. Didn’t like his lead up trials however I’m told he’s never been one to work or trial well as he saves his best for raceday. Well, he resumed in the Theo Marks & didn’t do a lot, the step up in distance will help here though & I’m expecting sharp improvement. TANNHAUSER was an eye catcher in the same race, many of the main chances do come through that race. He hit the line well & will also appreciate further, soft track will aid his chances also. FREEDOM RALLY & NEW ENERGY in the mix also, note blinkers come off the former who did race too keenly last start.

Numbers: 1 – 13 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 10

At the decent odds I’ll have something each-way on SHEZANALISTER who should have finished closer here a fortnight back. Settling second last from the wide draw she had something to offer over the concluding 200m however just couldn’t get a clear crack. Yes, she’s up in weight to 61kg however drops in class & gets tempo to suit should the leading types all run, add to that she’s won twice on all surfaces. I’d expect improvement from MARTINI MUMMA, mathematically no chance first up the way the race was run, has plenty of upside. Respecting PHARARI however 1100m on a strong speed could find her out at the business end.

Numbers: 1 – 15 – 11 – 8

Suggested Bet: SHEZANALISTER EACH-WAY (small bet).

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