Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on March 23, 2023March 28, 2023 | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Conditions all important with rain forecast Thursday right through until Saturday, just how much we receive remains to be seen. ASTERO, LANCASTER BOMBER & the very good first up performer MYDEEL look the trio here. ASTERO was beaten by LANCASTER BOMBER here 2 weeks ago however the barrier draws have been basically reversed which may also end up being the result. MYDEEL has won 2 of 3 when fresh & is probably more effective on heavy ground than any other surface.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet: BOX TRIFECTA TOP 3 SELECTIONS

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RACE 2

AMUR brings the strongest formlines into this race having run 3^rd in the Group 2 Sires at Flemington last start. He was 1100-1400m on that occasion sitting wide without cover yet stuck to his task well. Can’t see him being posted this time around from the inside draw! BRAVE MEAD was impressive winning at Pakenham & will take good improvement off that, raced too close on debut. THE YEARS is in the mix, Canberra run was good as the tempo was solid, dominant at Kembla two back however the form out of that race has been poor to date.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet: AMUR EACH-WAY

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RACE 3

Group 2 Tulloch Stakes centres around the Kiwi visitor FULL OF SINCERITY who clocked in 3^rd behind the very capable Sharp ‘n’ Smart in the NZ Derby 3 weeks ago. His run prior was also good at Group 2 level, interestingly he’s been big odds at both those runs? He’d only have to run up to something near those efforts to handle these, I’ll be monitoring the market very closely. STROKE OF LUCK & AWESOME JOHN both ran well at their last starts can provide the strongest opposition.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet: BOX TRIFECTA TOP 3 SELECTIONS

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RACE 4

ZAYREK caught the eye at his latest run here behind the European raider Protagonist closing strongly & recording some very slick sectionals in the process. Doesn’t have to be as far back this time & is in terrific form this prep having won well fresh. Last year’s Doomben Cup winner HUETOR won that 2100m Group 1 feature third up which is exactly where he’s at in his prep today, he can improve here at odds. SUNSHINE RISING comes out of the same race as ZAYREK last start, also ran on well however not as well as he did.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 5 – 9

Suggested Bet: ZAYREK TO WIN

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RACE 5

This is tough, a wide open market which we don’t see very often. I’ll tip the Queenslander WEONA SMARTONE however wouldn’t consider him a strong bet. He’s trialled well & should he put in similar performances to what he produced at his final two runs last prep he’ll take beating, any rain will enhance his chances, he’s a swimmer! WAIHAHA FALLS resumes, very good first up last prep in group 3 company. At odds DAJRAAN is worth including in exotics.

Numbers: 1 – 10 – 5 – 15

Suggested Bet: WEONA SMARTONE/WAIHAHA FALLS TO WIN (small only)

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RACE 6

Going with the Waller trained FINEPOINT who will be big odds. She resumed here two weeks back & was sent out favourite in the race won by Maotai, that race was run at a farcical tempo where the backmarkers had no chance of winning. This one peeled out & did run on doing as good a job as possible, worth a throw at the stumps. ROOTS needed the run second up in my opinion & back 100m can run a race. MORE PROPHETS is another at odds worth including if not too wet.

Numbers: 14 – 10 – 12 – 6

Suggested Bet: FINEPOINT EACHWAY (small)

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RACE 7

PROWESS is a very smart Kiwi filly over here for this & the Oaks. She’s won 4 straight across the ditch & 6 of 8 overall. Should that filly turn up for this race I’d expect she’ll make it consecutive Group 1’s. Should she not then PAVITRA looks the one, beat all bar the winner in the Victorian Oaks & then bolted in second up at Kembla, she’s come back in great order. FIREBURN can improve on wet ground.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet: QUINELLA/BOX EXACTA NOS. 1 & 3

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RACE 8

Super competitive field to go around in the Group 1 Tancred. I’ll stick with the reigning Melbourne Cup champ GOLD TRIP who was disappointing last week in the Ranvet however they all were behind the runaway winner. Suggest he’s now looking for this trip & his form last prep was outstanding not only winning the Cup but running second in the Caulfield Cup. EXPLOSIVE JACK should be ready to show up now at his fourth run this time in. STOCKMAN a chance if quite wet, CLEVELAND if not.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 9 – 3

Suggested Bet: GOLD TRIP EACHWAY

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RACE 9

BANDERSNATCH can be a little hard to catch however in a wide open Doncaster Prelude I’m with him on an each-way basis. His record at the track & distance is a good one, he’ll handle any give in the ground & I did spot him making headway late last start after being held up. WATERFORD will be ready third up, just peaked on the finish last time. Up in front CROSS TALK will take running down in his present form.

Numbers: 4 – 12 – 5 – 15

Suggested Bet: BANDERSNATCH EACHWAY (small)

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RACE 10

Tipped FINEPOINT each-way at odds in an earlier race & I’d suggest as 5^th emergency here he will run earlier however if not I would have him on top this race also. Confident the ex-European galloper SUBSTANTIAL can run a race, trialled well & has a good fresh record overseas, certainly in the right hands. ITA can improve second up.

Numbers: 19 – 11 – 13 – 10

Suggested Bet: FINEPOINT/SUBSTANTIAL TO WIN

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