Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Cracking day of racing at Randwick under sunny skies & it all gets under way with a 1600m Midway. Always looking at finding value in these races as they can throw up a big odds winner or two. I was keen on the chances of SATNESS last start however he failed to run out the 1800m trip, back to a mile is ideal, his 3 career wins have all been over that distance range. BACKROWER drew wide first up which was a forgivable effort, not so second up when offering very little. Happy to include him in the place mix today. Jumped off ELETTRICA last start & of course she won, include.

Numbers: 9 – 2 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet: SATNESS EACH-WAY (small bet)

RACE 2

Cannot possibly tip against DERRY GROVE who was so impressive winning here last month careering away from his opposition to score by over 4 lengths & looking to have gas in the tank. He’s earned himself a Kosciuszko start with the win & any repeat performance sees him getting the money once again. SALIRE clearly the hardest to beat, busting to win a race draws perfectly & gets Zac Lloyd to steer. ONCE AGAIN MY GIRL in the mix also, only defeat was in Listed grade, two prior wins were dominant.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 13 – 5

Suggested Bet: DERRY GROVE TO WIN

RACE 3

Very open race, host of winning chances. Going with value putting MYSTERY SHOT on top off just the one run back which was a tidy third at Rosehill last month over 1400m. He was clearly doing his very best work late in that race which turned out to be a sprint home, 1600m looks ideal & his second up record is a good one. The ex-French mare GAN TEORAINN was held up in the straight second up, when clear she took time to get rolling before hitting the line well, to the eye she is looking for further however I’m reluctant to leave out as she has Group form over this trip back home. STRAIT ACER is flying, just needs to handle the rise in class.

Numbers: 6 – 9 – 10 – 1

Suggested Bet: MYSTERY SHOT EACH-WAY (small bet)

RACE 4

He’s very promising ALTIVO & gets the nod here. Just the one defeat from 5 attempts to date which came about at his last start back in May at Flemington when a short priced favourite. He’s trialled well is unbeaten first up & should prove too solid for this opposition. GRINGOTTS strips fitter off the first up run, good gate should land a nice run in the race & similar to ALTIVO holds a good overall record. SUPERAZI comes out of the same race & should also be included.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 3 – 15

Suggested Bet: ALTIVO TO WIN

RACE 5

Big odds here about the Chris Waller trained AL AABIR who yes faces a tough assignment however to me looks ‘overs’ & is well worth a throw at the stumps. Very good last prep his only below par run came in the Brisbane Cup where he likely found the two miles a bridge too far. He’s been strong to the line both runs this prep & is looking for this longer trip now. Had he stayed in Brisbane he’d be winning races left, right & centre at this time of the year however the stable obviously feel he’s going well enough to measure up here. JUST FINE was very impressive winning at his first Australian start, clearly be the hardest to beat.

Numbers: 15 – 16 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet: AL AABIR EACH-WAY (small bet)

RACE 6

Terrific bunch of fillies to go around in this Group 2 feature, can KIMOCHI turn the tables on TIZ INVINCIBLE who had her measure in the Furious here a fortnight back? Well originally I thought yes however now I’m with the Maher/Eustace filly who maps to again get the gun run, there’s no reason she won’t run the trip out strongly & it will be again up to KIMOCHI to attempt to run her down. SUMMER LOVING is another who should be suited by the step up to 1400m.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 14 – 8

Suggested Bet: TIZ INVINCIBLE TO WIN

RACE 7

FANGIRL has been kept on the fresh side since her Winx Stakes victory & what a terrific form race that has proven to be going forward. She gets the dry track & her pet distance, just have to tip her on top however there’s a couple there who will make her earn it. THINK IT OVER should be ready third up, two good efforts off a long break he’s drawn well, Rawiller will give him every chance & we know he loves this track. The champ ZAAKI has definitely seen better days however he’s not quite done with yet.

Numbers: 9 – 1 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet: FANGIRL TO WIN

RACE 8

Plenty of Everest contenders/hopefuls going around in the Group 2 Shorts. Really think the penny has dropped with OVERPASS who went to Perth for the inaugural running of the Quokka & after finding the front just wouldn’t lie down landing the big prize. From there he went to Brisbane for the Doomben 10,000 & gave Giga Kick a real run for his money. His trials since have been terrific running second to Nature Strip before beating Red Card (won last week) in a canter. IN SECRET will appreciate the additional 100m, strong to the line first up. BUENOS NOCHOS has plenty of upside.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet: OVERPASS EACH-WAY

RACE 9

I’m a bit of a wrap for CONVERGE & am going to tip him on an each-way basis here. His best form is clearly on dry ground which is a given, his first up runs have been better than they appear on face value & I didn’t mind his trial. Yes, he won’t be fully wound up as yet however he’ll be charging home. Not convinced about OLENTIA, excuses last start when wide without cover, leader didn’t go hard though. The Queenslander IRISH SONGS rises plenty in grade, he goes very well though & is one for the exotics players.

Numbers: 1 – 11 – 5 – 17

Suggested Bet: box up top 4 selections in exotics

RACE 10

GARZA BLANCA needs s few more scratchings to get a run in this race however should he sneak in lookout as now he’s won he’s every chance to go right on with the job. KIBOU resumes, very lightly raced & holds a consistent record, drawn well settles on speed & will take plenty of running down. KOTE is always a chance in these types of races, first up record not great, market will be our best guide.

Numbers: 20 – 6 – 1 – 10

Suggested Bet: GARZA BLANCA/KIBOU TO WIN

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