Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Doomben Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing at Doomben on Saturday should take place on a good rated surface with only the chance of a shower or two on Saturday after a fine week. Confident we can get the meeting off on a winning note with (3) ALECTRONA who has beaten all bar the winner at her past two starts. She zoomed home from near last two back before giving everything last time out when a victim of race tempo. Martin Harley will be looking to slot her across in the first four here & from there she gets her chance. (5) ONE BEAT NO BEAT doesn’t look far away & should be peaking whilst (2) TIJUANA TWO STEP is in the place mix.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 2 – 9

Suggested Bet: ALECTRONA TO WIN.

RACE 2

These distance races often throw up surprise results. I’ve settled on (2) MISTERKIPCHOGE however with no strong confidence. He’s been a disappointment having shown good promise when a younger horse however he’s failed to live up to the wraps having won only 2 from 24. His southern form just might be stronger than the locals though & if not a short quote I’ll lean his way. (3) CAVALRY MAN should be suited by the step up in trip, he found the line well his latest run over 1800m. (16) SHADOW CRUISER is worth throwing into exotics.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 16 – 6

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

3yo affair which clearly looks a race in two between (2) STIKTODASCRYPT & (6) FOREIGN PRESS. At the early odds the former is worth a saver as I don’t think the gap in the market between the pair should be as great, perhaps we’ll see it contract closer to race time. (6) FOREIGN PRESS maps so much more favourably & has good form lines through Impervious who accounted for Sunrays last week. (2) STIKTODASCRYPT also has strong form lines through Alpha Sofie who won at The Valley also last week however where he ends up from that wide gate is my concern. (5) HA’PENNY HATCH will be running home late.

Numbers: 6 – 2 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet: FOREIGN PRESS TO WIN/Quinella/Exacta’s.

RACE 4

Absolute lottery at this early stage with plenty of emergencies still in the field. (19) BOSSED UP holds a very good first up record, he charged to the line fresh when resuming last prep placing on heavy ground before excuses second-up (wide). (1) XPRESSO was never a chance first up when caught deep however improved nicely second time around running on well at Eagle Farm, big weight offset 1.5kg by the claim. (9) KODIAK can run a race fresh; he draws well for Rory Hutchings who has relocated to the sunshine state.

Numbers: 19 – 1 – 9 – 14

Suggested Bet: Wide exotics best at this stage.

RACE 5

I’ll lean to the very speedy (12) OUROBOROS however won’t be taking any red figures as I fear the pace in the race has a chance of bringing him undone. There’s plenty engaged who like to go forward & whilst only two are drawn to his inside there will be plenty pushing on from wider out. Right at his peak third run back he is a winner though & that counts for plenty. (2) BATTLEFIELD will be the one charging at them late, good second up the harder they go up front, the stronger he’ll finish off. (7) TOWN CRIER in the mix also.

Numbers: 12 – 2 – 7 – 8

Suggested Bet: OUROBOROS TO WIN $2 or better/Saver BATTLEFIELD.

RACE 6

(2) LARRIKIN ROGUE has found the line encouragingly at both outings this prep, adding further merit to the performances has been the lack of tempo on each occasion which hasn’t suited him one bit. Once again this race doesn’t look strong early pace wise however from the good draw with a little persuasion early he might just be able to land in a spot closer to the lead. (1) KEITEL won’t, he’s a dead set backmarker who will need things to pan out, I did like his first up run though. (5) PANNIER bolted in first up at Toowoomba, should he bring that form to town he’s right in the hunt.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet: LARRIKIN ROGUE TO WIN.

RACE 7

Interesting race the open handicap. With (10) MUSCHIALLI now scratched last start winner (8) PARTY FOR TWO maps to control the race & on paper does look very hard to beat. Although a last start winner she only fell in & faces a further 110 metres today, wouldn’t say the time out of that race was anything to get excited about either, I’ll take her on. Stablemate (9) HURTS SO GOOD is a market watch, can pull out a run fresh & will be finding the line, just needs to be close enough. (1) NETTUNO must be included whilst (5) ALL THAT PIZZAZZ is far from out of it either.

Numbers: 9 – 1 – 8 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

(6) BULLION BOY was beaten marginally by Amur at Eagle Farm two starts back before turning the tables on that one same track last time out. He dug very deep on that occasion suggesting the step to 1600m is now what he’s chasing & with only 4 & 9 shaping as the pace in the race he’s going to land the box seat run in behind. (1) DUCASSE hit the line well behind Bullion Boy last start & meets him 5kg better at the weights, should Jace McMurray be able to make some use of the gate & land close enough to strike he’s a real danger. (4) KRONENBOURG best of those on pacers.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 4 – 10

Suggested Bet: BULLION BOY EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

Confident we can end the day on a winning note with (1) FREE CARRY who was so impressive winning first up absorbing a ton of pressure in the run before disappointing on face value last time out at Eagle Farm. No obvious excuses on that occasion however the consensus was he may have jarred up on the firm ground. (11) OCEAN ZAR may be looking for this longer 1600m trip & could well settle closer than her usual pattern. (2) DEEP FOCUS who came such a long way in a short space of time during the winter can improve second-up.

Numbers: 1 – 11 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet: FREE CARRY TO WIN.

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