Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1

With the rain easing up Thursday afternoon this Rosehill track will begin to dry out however a heavy (10) was the rating earlier in the day, soft could be possible however I wouldn’t bank on it. The meeting gets underway with a 1200m Midway where (2) NOBLE SOLDIER & (3) ZOURIPPER both come into the racing having won similar last start midweekers on heavy ground, the former is big odds, the latter second favourite. I’ll lean to (3) ZOURIPPER however will be having a saver on the ‘roughie’. (5) MERIDIANA resumes, she’s shown good ability however would prefer a drier track, wouldn’t fancy her on anything heavy.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 5 – 6

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

(7) PENINSULA makes his metro debut having won 3 of 5 career outings. He bolted in fresh at Muswellbrook before not as comfortable second-up however note the form out of the race has been good with a couple of subsequent winners. Importantly he’s won on all 3 surfaces so bases covered there. Similarly (9) SOLTARIO is also lightly raced, placed this level last start & the wet ground won’t be an issue. (3) NIMBLE STAR in the mix with (14) NOVA CENTAURI who draws the pole gate.

Numbers: 7 – 9 – 3 – 14

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

Suggest near enough to half of the field here can’t win which narrows it down a little however there’s not a great deal between the others. Whichever way you look at the race nos.1, 2, 3 & 4 fight it out however all have both negatives & positives. (4) TAZIMA might now be ready for the 2400m trip, held late over 2000m last time he didn’t give any ground & all his form is on wet ground. (3) LEADERS LISTEN comes up from Melbourne where’s he’s won his past couple, proven at 2400. (2) CORMAC T will just keep going at the one pace whilst (1) JUJA KIBO was impressive two back here before failing over 2400m at Randwick last time out.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

He doesn’t win too often (1) STRATHAY however he may have found a suitable race second up this afternoon. Big odds fresh he hit the line well (as he often does) over 1500m & whilst this 1800m trip is still short of his best I wouldn’t say the opposition are all that strong & if close enough he can run into the finish. (11) SEVEN’S looks well suited third-up, he should be peaking & the step up in trip also suits. No knock (6) GLAD YOU THINK SO or (9) KAPAKIRI who can both win the race.

Numbers: 1 – 11 – 6 – 9

Suggested Bet: STRATHAY EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 5

Top selection in this race will all depend on the track condition. Should we still be in the heavy range (5) KERGUELEN gets the nod as he’s an absolute swimmer as his record suggests. All 4 wins & 2 of his 4 placings have been in the mud. Should we get to a soft deck I’ll lean to (1) ROMEO’S CHOICE who comes back from Group 3 company, the claim a big help & he will handle any ground. (2) FIRE STAR is flying at the trials, keeping very safe.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet: All dependant on track condition.

RACE 6

First of the feature races is the Group 2 Ming Dynasty. I’m with the unbeaten & resuming (1) AUTUMN BOY who somehow started $51 on debut at Canterbury when running over the top of his more fancied stable mate. Taken to Brisbane he got the job done in good style at Eagle Farm & J. Mac was quick to give him a wrap which is good enough for me! (2) GRAND PRARIE will handle any type of going & has race fitness, we all know what happened in the Up And Coming when winning there, logical danger. Big step up in grade for (8) FLYING ORCHID however how can you knock what he’s doing, include.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 8 – 3

Suggested Bet: AUTUMN BOY TO WIN.

RACE 7

Plenty of class to go around in the Group 2 Sheraco which again could be decided by the state of the track. (2) JOLIESTAR is the absolute class, a two-time Group 1 winner within her 5 starts last prep she’s on an Everest path & flies fresh. The ground is the issue, would need to be on the better side of soft & certainly not heavy. (1) STEFI MAGNETICA resumes having landed the Doncaster in the autumn, she too is better placed on something drier. (8) GANGSTA GRANNY can beat the lot of them should we stay in the very wet range; she gave the unbeaten Autumn Glow a run for her money last start & the ground is no problem. Very hard to make a concrete decision at this stage.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet: box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

Cracking line up set to face off in the Group 2 Run To The Rose, how good will the actual Golden Rose be in a fortnight! (5) RAGING FORCE brought his winning winter form to Group 3 company landing the San Domenico accounting for (10) WODETON who should have finished closer if not for being squeezed up late, in my opinion he was just starting to cut the margin at that stage & I’m going with him to turn the tables. (9) TEMPTED was unlucky not to land 2yo of the year honours, the Group 1 just eluded her, make no mistake she is top class & right in this.

Numbers: 10 – 9 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet: WODETON & TEMPTED TO WIN.

RACE 9

(5) AUTUMN GLOW will no doubt be better suited as her distances increase however I’m confident she can measure up to open company here at the 1300m trip which is 200m further than her fresh win when knuckling down & doing her best work over the concluding stages. She can go on her merry winning way & make it 6 from 6! Kiwi galloper (2) PIER impressed in the Queensland winter, good fresh record, trialled well & handles all types of going, market? (8) GENERAL SALUTE in the mix also.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 8 – 16

Suggested Bet: AUTUMN GLOW TO WIN/Exacta with PIER.

RACE 10

Tough race to get out if you’re behind on the day. Should (1) FORMAL DISPLAY start $5 or better I’ll have something each-way. Whilst I wasn’t that wrapped in his first up win, he was heavily backed off a couple of impressive trials & will no doubt take good improvement fitness wise. Suggest it will be ‘handlebars down’ early on from the wide gate to get across on the speed. (5) CAPTAIN FURAI always a chance however he is becoming costly whilst the consistent (6) NARBOLD in the mix also.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet: FORMAL DISPLAY EACH-WAY ($5 or better).

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