Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Doomben Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing at Doomben on a Good rated surface with a mx temp of 35 degrees! Leaning to BEDFORD SQUARE in this opening event off an unplaced run here a couple of weeks back however she was never in the race after a poor start. She’s looking for additional ground & gets that today stepping up from 1600 to 2200m & although that looks sharp on paper it won’t concern her. REDWOOD SHADOW struggles to win however he’s never far away, he’ll break through eventually, maybe… CHASSAGNE a chance once again.

Numbers: 6 – 5 – 8 – 1

Suggested Bet: BEDFORD SQUARE EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 2

LUBRICATION steps up to the mile for the first time today & based on his past couple should go close. He made good ground two back over 1350m before dourer to the line the latest over the same trip, I’d be surprised if he didn’t run it out strongly. At good odds I’m expecting improvement from AMERICAN PHIREBALL who won well here two starts ago before finding the heavy conditions against his latest, figures to gain a cosy run from the inside draw. QUOTHQUAN & SUPER CHILLED will be running home from the back, plenty depends on how much start they give away.

Numbers: 5 – 7 – 9 – 11

Suggested Bet: LUBRICATION TO WIN.

RACE 3

ODINSON & MOULIN MISS the two for me here with a leaning to the former however I will be saving on the Gollan trained filly who is in super form. ODINSON went around in some quality 2yo races his first couple of preps & has trialled well for his return. MOULIN MISS has won both outings this prep & been very strong to the line on each occasion, awkward draw here she may need a touch of luck early on. No knock DEFIANT BOOM who was a very gutsy last start winner after working basically the entire race.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet: ODINSON/MOULIN MISS backing both.

RACE 4

I’m not seeing a lot of early speed in this race with LAYDOWNLILY looking the clear leader on paper. Now races aren’t run on paper however should she get an easy time of it she just might take some running down. Her first up win on her home track was solid finishing & note she has won right up to 1350m. Thought INTRECCIATO was a chance at double-figure odds if there is some type of genuine speed as she will drift back. TRANQUIL BAY has his hoof right on the till, gets another chance to break through here.

Numbers: 4 – 10 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet: LAYDOWNLILY EACH-WAY.

RACE 5

I really didn’t expect JOHN RAMBO to come up as short as he has in the market let alone the favorite so yes, I do think he’s unders & am hoping he’ll drift. There should be good speed in the race which will help him though so I’ll leave him top of the tips looking for that better price though. COMPELLING TRUTH draws out & is yet to tick the 1200m box, could go pear shaped, if not he has the ability to go very close. There are others however it’s a very open looking race, a surprise result wouldn’t shock.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: JOHN RAMBO ($3.00 or better).

RACE 6

Very tricky race. VIMINELE looks well placed all bar the distance, he’s never been out to this longer trip & although he made ground the latest I’m just not convinced. With very little confidence I’ll lean to BUILLT who is another stepping up sharply in distance however in his favour is he’s won 3 times over the trip, he’s a month between starts which is concerning though. As for WITHOUT REVENGE well personally I’ll scream should he win as he’s been my best bet his past 2 starts & put in two woeful efforts.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 7

Not sure where to go with this race as there’s good speed likely however that could change post scratching time on Saturday morning. SHOT OF WHISKEY may well be the safest option having come up with a good alley whereas many of his rivals have not. A winner his first two starts this prep he was narrowly beaten at Ipswich & will appreciate the slight drop in distance. BEAU WITNESS is flying this prep & will figure with luck from the awkward alley. Big watch MIDORI BEAUTY who although didn’t fire in Hong Kong could easily show up here on his previous Australian form.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 15 – 7

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

Keen on the chances of the resuming IVERSON who clocked a very slick closing sectional to win here first up last prep when having his first local start. He then went on to place before winning again & comes into this race with a good recent trial under his belt. Wide gate for BLAKMAX however the dry conditions are a big plus for him. Include MASTER SHOWMAN & SET TO SHINE who do look the speed in the race.

Numbers: 11 – 7 – 2 – 15

Suggested Bet: IVERSON EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

Keen on the chances of TECTONIC PLATE who is going for his fourth straight win this afternoon. He does draw awkwardly however note he’s raced wide at each of those past 3 wins yet been strong to the line. With Tahlia Fenlon’s claim he’ll basically carry no weight. Tony Gollan has BRERETON flying, he’s been a model of consistency since joining the stable & maps to figure right in the finish once again. HOLD ON HONEY an on-speed chance whilst NORTHERN EXPRESS draws a gate, both runs this time in better than they appear on paper.

Numbers: 13 – 12 – 8 – 14

Suggested Bet: TECTONIC PLATE TO WIN

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