Races

Chris Nelson’s Tuesday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

More Group 1 racing coming up at Rosehill on Saturday, unfortunately we’re likely to be going around on a wet track with rain forecast firstly Friday then up to 60mm with heavy falls on race day, hopefully by some freak of nature we avoid it. An open looking Midway kicks off the card, I’ll lean to (16) LET’S GO AGAIN who is only lightly raced & with less convictions than most if not all here. Fitter third run back from a break she’ll carry no weight & handles all types of going. Unfortunately the barrier isn’t great, she’ll need an ounce or two of luck. (4) SO GOOD SO COOL was a strong winner here last start, just creeping up in the weights, maybe too much? (5) APOLLO MISSION an improver, happy to take on (1) MAHOGANY GIRL.

Numbers: 16 – 4 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

No wet track form for the second starter (2) NEPOTISM however I’ll take the punt he’ll get through it ok. Terrific debut in the Todman clocking slicker 400 & 200m splits than the Golden Slipper runner up Wodeton he should take plenty of benefit from the outing & I’d suggest the step up in distance will suit. The form lines around (10) SAVVY HALLIE are impeccable having run 5th to Tempted & Marhoona in the Reisling, on debut she sat deep & gave the Black Opal winner King Of Pop a real run for his money. Additional distance looks ideal. Race becomes very open beyond the top two, I’ll throw (3) SANCTIFIED in next best.

Numbers: 2 – 10 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet: NEPOTISM TO WIN/Saver SAVVY HALLIE.

RACE 3

The Group 2 Tulloch for the 3yo’s en route to the Derby & there’s plenty of varying form lines from many different venues to factor in. To be honest there’s not much depth to them & I’d be surprised to see the Derby winner come through this race. I keep coming back to the Kiwi raiders (2) GOLDEN CENTURY & (3) MUSTANG MORGAN who have been going around in Group 1 & 2 company back home, I’m not convinced the drop back to 2000m really suits either however I just can’t see any of their opposition today measuring up to that level. (2) GOLDEN CENTURY has the wet track form, (3) MUSTANG MORGAN is yet to place at 4 attempts. (4) KING OF THUNDER the best of the locals, his Melbourne spring form plus the booking of J. Mac suggests he’ll figure in the finish. Wouldn’t be the least surprised to see a big odds upset winner in this race, good luck finding it though!

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

This race just looks a turn up & win job for (1) CEOLWULF who will unfortunately go around in red figures. Good fresh he then missed a run having to wait 3 weeks & drop back in distance in the Canterbury Stakes which didn’t suit yet he wasn’t far away. He certainly looked back to his best last Saturday in the George Ryder placing third & signalling he’s ready for a step up in distance. Well, he gets that today & his wet track form is certainly good enough, he probably should have beaten Riff Rocket in the Derby on a heavy (8). Seriously he has lengths on this lot. (6) POST IMPRESSIONIST may be ready to improve, (2) BOIS D’ARGENT has good wet track form, certainly comes into calculations should the rain arrive.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet: CEOLWULF TO WIN.

RACE 5

Very competitive looking race the Group 2 Emancipation. I’ve narrowed it down to three however the track conditions will likely have something to do with my final thoughts. (14) HARLEM QUEEN was very good first up making ground (as she always seems to). She has some very strong form lines from the Spring finishing close up in consecutive Group 1’s. She’s had the two wet track starts & recorded the quickest final split on each occasion so I don’t fear a damp surface. I was (4) SCARLET OAK’s biggest fan however after the Roses at Doomben she lost her way, or did she? She hasn’t seen a wet track since & all her best form is on soft/heavy, she could be a swimmer who will get conditions to suit here. (15) SNOW IN MAY has no wet form, never raced on anything bar good, disappointed first up, bounced back second up, placed behind the glamour fillies Autumn Glow & Lady Shenandoah at consecutive starts last prep. I’ll take on (7) LAZZURA who got away with a ridiculously soft lead last time, surely that won’t be the case again here.

Numbers: 14 – 4 – 15 – 7

Suggested Bet: Exotics – BACKING TOP 3 SELECTIONS ALL TO WIN

RACE 6

The Group 1 Vinery looks a (1) TREASURETHE MOMENT benefit, the only unknown is if we get to a heavy track, she has won on soft (by 4L) however that was her maiden last year against far inferior opposition than she takes on today. She’s a star though & I’d expect her to still get the job done no matter what the track condition & bring up her seventh consecutive win. I was super keen on (5)DECLICHY BOULEVARD last start & although beaten she had absolutely no chance of winning the way the race was run, a farcical early tempo gave those off speed such as her no chance. She still made good ground though & the wet track is no issue for her. Ex Kiwi (2) MOVIN OUT was also good in that same race running on, she & (5) DECLICHY BOULEVARD are unknown out to this trip, wouldn’t underestimate either though & note (2) MOVIN OUT’s good NZ form is all on soft ground.  

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet: TREASURE THE MOMENT TO WIN (exotics with 5, 2 & 7) if too short.

RACE 7

Very tough race this one. With all the likely rain I’m going left of field & tipping the first up (11) PUNCH LANE who is a swimmer, the wetter the better for him. He’s had a couple of lead-up trials both being quite soft looking to have plenty in the tank, he’s won twice fresh in the past & has a very good overall strike rate. Should the track not be overly rain affected (3) UNCOMMON JAMES does look hard to beat however note he is on a 7-day back up from last week’s Galaxy plus he draws wide, could end up posted or having to work hard to get across. Expect improvement from (7) OSTRAKA.

Numbers: 11 – 3 – 7 – 13

Suggested Bet: Something PUNCH LANE if wet.

RACE 8

The Group 1 Tancred is a cracking race with plenty of internation form. (1) DUBAI HONOUR came to Australia for the Ranvet & Queen Elizabeth a couple of years back winning each race extremely comfortably. He’s jetted successfully to many parts of the world since with his latest effort a 2nd in the HK Vase back in December when really stretching out late. Had this race been a handicap he’d be giving away a ton of weight however being WFA he’s just so well placed & we know his trainer is a will have him ready to go. I liked what (2) VAUABAN did first up, he’s a class act & you’d have to think he’ll take plenty of benefit from the win, note both have no wet ground concerns. (14) RIVER OF STARS is now with Chris Waller, lightly raced overseas he wasn’t far from the winner at Group 1 level back in October at Longchamp. BIG market watch.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 14 – 13

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 9

(6) NEW ENDEAVOUR has won only twice from 22 career attempts & both came on the synthetic surface at Kempton Park when trained in the UK. His good track record is poor, his wet track record is 5 placings from 6 starts, he’s a wet tracker no doubt about it & he just might get conditions to suit here. His first up run on a dry deck was strong running the quickest late sectional, I’m with him should we get the rain. (4) WILLAIDOW gets J. Mac to steer, will roll forward & if anyone’s going to slot him in it’s that man. Giving (11) GREBENI a chance at odds. Many hopes in the race, the conditions will play a major role.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 11 – 17

Suggested Bet: NEW ENDEAVOUR EACH-WAY (need wet track).

RACE 10

Extremely difficult race to wind up the day. I’ll stick with (6) LES VAMPIRES however I’d prefer to see him stepping up in trip. He was game last start holding off closing challengers when looking a sitting shot in the straight, not sure he wants it too wet either. (13) WELL TIMED definitely in the mix, fitter for the first up run when not far away & handles all types of ground which is important. (3) GREEN FLY can run a race fresh.

Numbers: 6 – 13 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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