Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 15
THURSDAY
Fremantle v Essendon, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm
Fremantle’s ascent in 2025 should take further shape this evening when they host a depleted Essendon on a short spin. It presents as the perfect set-up for the Dockers, who weren’t at their best against North Melbourne yet still prevailed.
Luke Jackson will assume the mantle as the No.1 ruckman in the absence of the rested Sean Darcy and that spells big trouble for the Bombers, who have been forced to dig deep into their squad to select a side that is far removed from what they would have been hoping for due to injury and suspension.
The Dockers also have their injury concerns (as every team does this time of the season), but they are considerably healthier and have weapons on every line that are poised to propel them alongside Hawthorn and Adelaide with a 9-5 win-loss record.
VERDICT: Fremantle 1-39 points
Same Game Multi: Fremantle to win and Zach Merrett and Nic Martin to have 25+ disposals @ $2.40*
*Odds correct at the time of publication.
FRIDAY
Geelong v Brisbane, GMHBA Stadium, 5.40pm
Having recently celebrated Mitch Duncan’s 300th-game milestone in style, Geelong are afforded the opportunity to do exactly the same in this clash where Patrick Dangerfield makes his 350th appearance.
One of the game’s modern-day greats, Dangerfield remains an undeniable force and would love to shine bright on the Friday night stage against the premiers, who have not won down the highway for more than two decades.
Brisbane have squandered their chances in front of goal in losing to Adelaide and GWS the past fortnight. If the opportunities present against the clinical Cats, they simply must take them.
VERDICT: Geelong to win
Same Game Multi: Gryan Miers, Tom Stewart and Josh Dunkley to have 20+ disposals @ $2.50*
SATURDAY
Carlton v North Melbourne, MCG, 11.20am
Logic says North Melbourne, despite having won only three matches this season, are a chance of upsetting Carlton.
No Harry McKay and no Sam Walsh and doubts surrounding the availability of Charlie Curnow seriously diminish the weapons at Michael Voss’ disposal. Offsetting those concerns however is the fact the Blues have owned the Kangaroos for a fair while now. And by owned, we mean OWNED.
The Good Friday annihilation of North by Carlton was the latest evidence that there is a serious gulf between these two teams. Have the Kangaroos improved since then? Yes. The unknown is whether their progress will be enough.
VERDICT: Carlton to win
Same Game Multi: Nick Larkey and Paul Curtis to kick 2+ goals @ $4.10*
Port Adelaide v Sydney, Adelaide Oval, 2.15pm
The band is getting back together for Sydney. Not before time some Swans are saying, but there is no hiding the fact the return of Joel Amartey, Errol Gulden and Tom Papley provides a huge boost.
Conversely, Port Adelaide have lost Aliir Aliir and Ollie Wines to injury and Jason Horne-Francis (shoulder) has trained away from the main group at times this week.
Port appear to be building and though they are not at full strength, they have proven capable of troubling the Swans, both in Sydney and at home, during Ken Hinkley’s tenure.
VERDICT: Port Adelaide to win
Same Game Multi: Either team to win by 24 points or less and game total over 168.5 points @ $3.35*
Collingwood v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium, 5.35pm
For the first time in Ross Lyon’s second stint at St Kilda, the spotlight is being directed his way. Are the Saints, who are keen to regenerate and build from the ground up rather than continually topping up, making progress?
Those inside the four walls at St Kilda will say this realignment is necessary. An overdue one. What does that all amount to here against the ladder leaders and premiership favourites? Not much if the current formlines hold true.
Collingwood are a remarkable side who regularly do remarkable things. They are refreshed and whilst missing key personnel, pound for pound they have the ability to win this match without hitting full speed.
VERDICT: Collingwood to win
Same Game Multi: Ned Long and Jack Crisp to have 20+ disposals @ $3.35*
SUNDAY
GWS v Gold Coast, ENGIE Stadium, 11.10am
If you have been able to accurately tip for or against GWS for a large portion of the season, please take a bow. They have been so hard to assess. Big wins away from home have been countered by shock defeats at ENGIE Stadium or in Canberra.
As such, it makes confidently settling on the Giants or Gold Coast to win this crucial clash nigh on impossible. The Suns have been beaten in their past two and now venture to western Sydney where they have a miserable record.
GWS revived their campaign with a win over Brisbane at the Gabba, a performance that had so many positives. Sadly the negative out of the victory came in the form of Sam Taylor’s broken toe, leaving a huge void in defence.
VERDICT: GWS to win
VERDICT: John Noble and Daniel Rioli to have 20+ disposals and Tom Green and Lachie Ash to have 30+ disposals @ $8*
Western Bulldogs v Richmond, Marvel Stadium, 1.20pm
The Western Bulldogs made a mess of St Kilda last round and a repeat performance, or one that doesn’t even have to reach those heights, will be sufficient to guarantee they remain in the finals mix.
Richmond hit this match off their bye, given them an opportunity to make a strong start to the back end of a campaign that in all likelihood is going to have its challenges considering the youth in the team each week.
The Bulldogs are brutally effective in and around the stoppages and now that Sam Darcy is back in attack, watch for Aaron Naughton to become even more impactful.
VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 25 points or more
Same Game Multi: Sam Darcy to have 15+ disposals and kick 3+ goals @ $2.50*
*Odds correct at the time of publication.
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