Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

Race 1

NON REFLECTIVE has run well above market expectations in each run so far in his short career. On debut he jumped a 40-1 pop and ran home into fourth behind They’reallsisters, Godspeed and The Persian God and then second-up he jumped 33-1 when again fourth behind Godspeed, Head and Shoulders and Western Splendour. He’s a big winner at the barrier draw and no surprise to see him settle a few pairs closer here. Think this is quite clearly the most winnable race he has seen yet. GOD’S HAMMER was all the rage out of a highly impressive barrier trial. He looked uncomfortable from a fair way out and then didn’t get any real room to move in the home straight. Forget he went around. THE PERSIAN GOD was scratched from a winnable race Thursday to save for this. Like the shades being applied. HEAD AND SHOULDERS beat all three of them home in that key form race.

Numbers: 5 – 6 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet – NON REFLECTIVE WIN

Race 2

PIN DEEP covered ground firs-tup when third behind Watto’s Mark and Shmoov Moova. The market was all over him last start and as soon as they’d gone 200m and he landed the position he did – the race was over. He bolted in by an easy 1.2L margin and did it entirely under his own steam. Same track, distance, grade, map and quite possibly the same result. Goes up 3kg start to start but he was arrogant and Team Gangemi are going at nearly 20% the last 90 days. GIRLS DAY OUT kept fighting on last start and showed that she’s got another string to her bow by taking a sit and finishing off. SWINGMAN can either kick through underneath of Sinful Living and Ginnivan or look to hold up in his own right. He’s got many more wins in him. PROSPECTOR’S PICK is versatile and while 1000m probably isn’t naturally his go, he’s trialled up well for his return.

Numbers: 4 – 7 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet – PIN DEEP WIN

Race 3

YES I KNOW bombed the start at his WA debut and that was race over for him. Second-up he still didn’t step that cleanly but he was able to muster into a handy spot midfield with cover and  then showed a really powerful turn of foot to get himself through traffic and into victory in a 60+ Graduation. Considering his two Eastern States wins were over 1500 & 1750m it’s a great sign of a horse who can work his way through the grades in WA. Gets in on the 54kg minimum which unfortunately rules out regular rider Clint Johnston-Porter at this time of year so it’s over to Stevie Parnham to guide him home. WONDERFULLY MADE and THE CRIMSON PIRATE are both Stakes winning 3 year olds resuming for their first starts as 4 year olds. Neither trialled up that well but it was nearly a month ago. Respect their class. ANGEL UNDERCOVER bypasses the Blue Spec Stakes to accept here.

Numbers: 8 – 6 – 7 – 1

Suggested Bet – YES I KNOW WIN

Race 4

ETERNAL ROMANCE has come back bigger and better this time around. Deserved that last start win and is bred to get ground. Lucy Fiore should land her in an ideal position in running and give her every favour/chance. Only coming out of a midweek C3 and beat a horse who is 2 from 71 in Maximum Impact, yet this still looks winnable for her. DOUBLE THE FUN had looked quite one paced this preparation: enter blinkers. The shades went on last start, they turned the race into a high speed, high pressure staying test and he was far and away the strongest late. First 1100m run 7.5L faster than average and he still came home 1.5L faster than average off the back of that hot tempo. That puts him in good stead as an emerging 4 year old stayer. DECISION MAKER backs up off 7 days and drops in grade. Brad Parnham back on first time this prep too. POINTLESS PRAISE should lead uncontested.

Numbers: 6 – 3 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet – ETERNAL ROMANCE EACHWAY

Race 5

FLYING MARADONA is looking to complete a winning hattrick and Team Williams have placed him perfectly into this Westspeed Platinum. He led and won his maiden and then took a sit leader’s back before pushing into the clear and matching motors with handy 3 year old Marcos in a C1 1300 where they cleared out a staggering 4.5L+ from the third horse. Looks like he can work his way to the breeze outside of Gods Gate and from there he’ll be right place, right time. GODS GATE has clearly returned a better, more trustworthy animal after the gelding operation. BOSUN has real X-Factor. 58 days between runs, from a maiden to a 58+ but gives the impression he can take the step and take it strongly. LEMMOR FILOU like Flying Maradona is coming into this off back to back maiden and C1 wins.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 5 – 7

Suggested Bet – FLYING MARADONA WIN

Race 6

IN CONFIDENCE jumped $1.18 last start. Considering how the race was run it was quite impressive that she was able to put a near 2L margin on them late. It was an ugly, messy sit and sprint: first 800m = 11L slower than average, last 600m = 7L faster than average, and usually in those races it’s a really bunched finish as they all sprint together as one. She pulled away late and looks like landing up close handy again in a race without any additional depth. Likely to get very short again. CLASSIC IMPACT ran second and gets 1.5kg to try and turn the tables. Don’t think she can but can run another cheeky minor. MEMORY PARADE wasn’t her usual self last start. Forgive that one poor performance as her first two runs were rippers. GINGER GREEN backs up off 7 days and just doesn’t know how to run a bad race.

Numbers: 2 – 8 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet – IN CONFIDENCE WIN

Race 7

SNIPPY WHICH was stepping into this grade of racing for the first time in the preparation and he acquitted himself really well. He was 1650 back to 1400, having his 18th run of a preparation dating back to 1st October in Geraldton! In that period he has progressed from a m71 to a m86, won 5 races and placed on a further 7 occasions. Wonderful money spinner and showing no signs of training off. Holly Nottle has been aboard for his last 4 wins and he can park and ride on likely leader Triple Jay. LILLIAN won last week on a deteriorating Heavy8 and on the 7-day spin drops 5kg. She’ll have a lot of followers. TOO DARDY got the perfect run to see out 1400m. Can he do it again at 1650? Why not? SENSESSIONAL just blew out late first-up when looming the winner at one stage. He’s a model of consistency.

Numbers: 6 – 11 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet – SNIPPY WHICH EACHWAY

Same Race Multi – Snippy Which (Top 4) + Sensessional (Top 4)

Lillian an intriguing addition but will go around short, banking on the very consistent pair Snippy Which and Sensessional to both finish inside the Top 4. Both draw well, map well and rarely run bad races.

Race 8

HUBBLES DRAGON won a maiden and a C1 last prep before being thrown into the deep end in the Pinjarra Magic Millions when second to Twisted Steel. At his last run of the prep he jumped $2.10 in a 66+ and after being knocked around at stages ended up finishing a relatively luckless fifth. First-up this campaign he went around in a 72+ 1200 and ran out of his skin into fourth behind Sunny Honey, The Calabrese and Want A Winner. This is a big drop in grade into a 60+ Graduation and an in form senior rider jumps aboard. Looks the right race for him. LORD SHIVA did break his maiden a few years ago at 1200m. Provided he crosses Ripper Farooq in the first 200m then he’ll be in front for a long way. FLASH DANCER is starting to emerge through the grades. SHERPA EXPRESS was $3.80 into $1.80 first-up but didn’t fire a shot.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet – HUBBLES DRAGON WIN

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

2,3,5

2

2,4,5,6,11

1,5

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