Races

Scott Embry’s Sunday Carnarvon Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

Race 1

PLACID ROM will be a query at the end of the 1400m but expect that Alex Hearn will cross them early and find the fence which helps his cause. Went into last start 6 weeks between runs after being scratched on 19 July (no available rider). He was the best of the beaten brigade in the key form race. ANY QUESTIONS had his first start on the dirt in Carnarvon in that event when fourth behind Tango Rhythm, Placid Rom and Costa Star. He should improve tenfold for the dirt experience and with Kate Pateman taking over. RADIO SILENCE has one run at York when less than 2L off Superb Vintage and King Brew that would see her competitive. Absolutely nothing outside of that. COSTA STAR is now a 29-start maiden who has had 16 runs this prep. She just can’t win one.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet – PLACID ROM WIN

Race 2

RED REBEL hadn’t won a race since 14th September 2024 until last start when breaking a winless streak of 18 starts which saw him drop from a c79 to a c64. He looks like he’s back to his best and that means that Aaron Pateman and wife Kate have a lot of room to move as he heads back upwards in the ratings system. Patience is now paying off. Could be on track for another tilt at the Carnarvon Cup. CORN COB meets him 1kg better trying to turn around a mere head margin. He’s a ripper and if Cyclone Webster can get him across from a wide draw he’ll be right place, right time. PLAYING QUEST has gone Carnarvon to Roebourne to Port Hedland and now back to Carnarvon. He bolted in last start and was $10 into 4.20. Can win again. HARD QUESTIONS was super fresh. Didn’t think the old boy would have that in him at 1400!

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet – RED REBEL WIN

Race 3

MARS MISSION hasn’t won a race for an eternity (4th November 2023) but his recent Carnarvon efforts have been handy. He’s finished third to Simply Rosso, he’s finished second to Aardvark (beating home Simply Rosso), he’s finished second to Kimberley Currency and he’s drawn to get the right run. Obviously the kind of horse you need eachway about but should be getting it here. KIMBERLEY CURRENCY has won two on the bounce and really found his dirt legs. He’s 3 from 41 overall – but most importantly he’s 3 from 9 on the dirt. SIMPLY ROSSO won this track/distance/grade on 16 May with 3kg more than he’s going to carry here. Must jump to lead. SHOOTING KONTIKI has been a great horse for Ray Malpass for seasons now and his last win was a 56+ 1000 at Carnarvon earlier in the season.

Numbers: 7 – 10 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet – MARS MISSION EACHWAY

Race 4

YES I BELIEVE has had four starts in Western Australia for 1 win (C3 1400) and two minors (56+ 1400). This looks an ideal race for her, especially with a set of blinkers added for the first time since June 2025. The only issue is jumping – because from barrier 2 if she doesn’t leave cleanly then you’ve got a 4kg claimer in a stack of traffic and kickback. Few inside barriers for Tara Atherden throughout the program, hopefully they all step for her! TANGO RHYTHM really cut through the dirt to win her maiden. Not convinced she beat much (at all) but it was more the manner in which she sustained that run. BLOWIN SMOKE only needs to reproduce the effort behind Western Impact of two back. ALMA MATER only needs to reproduce his run from two back when beating Western Impact.

Numbers: 4 – 7 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet – YES I BELIEVE WIN

RACE 5

CANDLELIGHT SHERIF drew barrier 1 last start and did enough to lead. Surely Alex Hearn tries to reproduce this time around and banks on the 1kg weight swing finally being enough to score a deserved win. He’s going super and deserves one. ONLY US – remarkable. To think that when he stepped out for his first-up assignment at Carnarvon he was a 33 start Class 1. He has now won 5 from 5 at Carnarvon and will lift the trophy as the 2026 Horse of the Year. His last two have only been by small margins but you must admire how a former ‘nonny’ is now finding a way to win even when things are against him. Feel like this is him at his most vulnerable to date, drawn low with 62kg. But what a season. MR HOLLYWOOD made many punters happy last start. $26 into $3.90 and won his second race at start 56. Scenes. ODIN OMEN stays?! Who knew?

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 10 – 11

Suggested Bet – CANDLELIGHT SHERIF WIN

Race 6

SMART RETURN had her first start on the dirt in Carnarvon and bolted in. That was same track/distance/grade and she won with her eyes closed. Alex Hearn takes over from Kate Pateman and if she does what most horses do and that’s improve lengths at their second dirt outing then she’ll take a power of beating in this. IRONCLAD BOY got caught out on a limb last start and put up the white flag. His prior runs were quite good, third behind Alma Mater and Western Impact and then third behind Western Impact and Blowin’ Soke. There was a stack of money around for him last start too which is a good indication that he was just about ready. Forgive and forget. SOARING SOLO put in her best run of the season. Will have to burn the candle at both ends here. SUNSHINE TAFE wasn’t ready first-up, the market knew: $6 to $16.

Numbers: 7 – 4 – 8 – 5

Suggested Bet – SMART RETURN WIN

Quaddie (Race 3 – 6)

3,4,5,6,7,10

2,4,5,7

1,3

4,5,7,8

Market Market



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