Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Doomben Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1

Racing at Doomben on Saturday. Track should be very close to good with a fine week behind us & only a shower or two in the forecast. Small field to kick off the day, (4) TRAFALGAR SQUARE generally settles handily & that’s a plus as there doesn’t look to be any clear leader in the race. She brings a different form line than most & I’d suggest it’s a stronger one, the engagement of Jimmy Orman to ride is a definite positive. (1) CELTIC SIN has solid NSW provincial form; a good gate & claims however may need to be used up early? Ditto (3) THAT’S ARCHIE’S GIRL. Tempo all important here & a surprise or two early on wouldn’t shock.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 3 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 5 selections in exotics.

Race 2

(5) EXCEED THE SALE ran well on debut closing late ground at the end of 1000m. Clearly finding that trip too short the Gollan camp sent her around over 1200m at her next start & she finished strongly to score. The further rise to 1350m today looks very suitable & she maps well from a good draw. (9) ISKENDERUN chased her home & their sectionals were very similar, just have to have a saver at the bigger odds, surely overs? (4) METAL BOSS is close, (3) COURTHEZON maps the only leader, include both.

Numbers: 5 – 9 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: EXCEED THE SALE TO WIN/Saving ISKENDERUN.

Race 3

Just an average staying affair for the restricted gallopers. Honestly, should (4) FERNAO run up to his last start effort here he will beat these. He couldn’t quite get to the winner (2) CAVALRY MAN on that occasion however he was closing in steadily & gets almost 200m further to turn the tables. As CAVALRY MAN is unknown at this trip I’m firmly of the opinion he can. I fear the rest may be only making up the numbers.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet: FURNAO TO WIN.

Race 4

Going with (12) LOCKYER here however I’m a little disappointed at his early market price. The money came for him last start & he certainly had every possible chance looming to win. Outgunned by the winner however that winner scored again last Saturday franking the form. Will need a little luck from an inside draw, hopefully Emily Lang can get him off the fence early. I cannot catch (7) MELDUBIOUS however there’s no doubt he has ability & his last start victory proved that. (10) ROBRICK in the mix, another who will need luck from an inside gate though.

Numbers: 12 – 7 – 10 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 5

Giving (1) NORTH POLE another chance. Thought he put the writing on the wall here two starts back & was keen on his chances last start however things didn’t pan out & he was shuffled back soon after the start settling a lot further back than most expected, from there was never a winning chance. Expect him to jump a lot more cleanly today & settle in the leading group. (2) JUST FLYING comes out of the same race & looks close, leading jockey Ben Thompson jumps on, that’s a good enough guide within itself! (10) BLACK EYED BLONDE brings winning central/north Queensland form & deserves a chance at this tougher grade.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 10 – 3

Suggested Bet: NORTH POLE EACH-WAY.

Race 6

Clearly the toughest race of the day, they don’t come much harder than this mile restricted affair. I ended up putting (8) ROGUERY on top, he’s only had the one start for the Gollan yard settling well back in the field before making ground in the run to the line, the step up in trip is positive & he will strip fitter. (2) PIPISTRELLE led throughout to score here last start however that wasn’t the plan, she got out with a big lead racing keenly & wasn’t for catching, what tactics will be applied today? (11) RIEZ SOUVENT in the mix also.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 11 – 4

Suggested Bet: Box up as many as possible in exotics.

Race 7

(3) BRAVEHEART was able to hold out (8) BLAZING HARRY here last start however had there been another 5 metres the result would have been different with HARRY steaming home to just miss. He meets the mare a little better at the weights tomorrow & there does look to be pressure up front which may work more in his favour than hers. Jace Mcmurray will need to get him away from the fence at some stage though or he’ll risk being shuffled back with nowhere to go. (10) REZONE will likely find this too short however he’s going to be winding up big time late.

Numbers: 8 – 3 – 10 – 7

Suggested Bet: BLAZING HARRY EACH-WAY.

Race 8

Can’t tip against the in-form mare (6) GRINZINGER CHAMP who has won her past couple here over this 1200m trip in impressive fashion. She steamed home right over the top of the leaders two back in a race not run to suit before lumping 60kg last start wearing down those in front of her late. Gut feel is she’s up to winning better races than this. (2) ACAPPELLA SUN maps perfectly, claim helps & hit the line strongly first up, rise in trip another positive. (1) SHE’S EXOTIC continues to race consistently, plenty of weight here however went around in some stronger races during the carnival & acquitted herself well.

Numbers: 6 – 2 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet: GRINZINGER CHAMP TO WIN.

Race 9

Very competitive open handicap winds up the day where I’m going to stick with (4) HATCHET on an each-way basis. His pattern of settling off speed doesn’t help however from a decent enough gate here with no breakneck speed up front he can hopefully park close enough, should that be the case he could prove hard to hold out as he can hit the line strongly. (3) PEREILLE is a favourite of mine however I don’t really know why as he keeps on running placings… he’s a chance once again though. (7) HELL likely leads, fitter & if not pressured will take some running down.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 7 – 6

Suggested Bet: HATCHET EACH-WAY.

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