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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 23

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Collingwood v Brisbane, Marvel Stadium, 5.50pm

How authentic are Brisbane? We are about to find out here when they front up against a Collingwood side missing Nick Daicos, Darcy Moore, Jordan De Goey and Bobby Hill at Marvel Stadium.

The Magpies are well below full strength and the Lions will also be happy that this match is away from the MCG, a venue Collingwood play their best football at as opposed to Chris Fagan’s men, who are better suited at the Docklands stadium.

Brisbane will sense an opportunity to impose themselves midfield and if they can win that battle, the forward line gets a look at booting a winning total in the absence of Moore.

VERDICT: Brisbane to win

SATURDAY

Richmond v North Melbourne, MCG, 11.45am

Damien Hardwick is revered at Richmond for his ability to win three flags. His influence is profound. We shouldn’t lose sight though that without Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt, it might have been a feat beyond him.

Cotchin and Riewoldt, who will make their final MCG appearance in this clash, are future Hall of Famers. Undeniable champions the pair of them and North Melbourne, who will also say goodbye to Jack Ziebell at season’s end, need to be on red alert.

The Tigers remain one of the most emotional groups in the competition and whilst finals are beyond them, they will be hellbent on sending off their veteran pair in style.

VERDICT: Richmond to win by 16 points or more

Gold Coast v Carlton, Heritage Bank Stadium, 12.10pm

Six straight losses. That is what the Carlton army had to endure before the round-13 match against Gold Coast at the MCG this year. What followed was a blitz, particularly in the second term, that revived the Blues’ finals hopes.

With September fast approaching, Carlton look certain to not only feature in the finals, but cause a ruckus. They are getting it done week after week and against quality opposition.

Gold Coast will again be spectators once the top eight get down to business next month, but their effort under Steven King hasn’t waned. The interim coach is extracting plenty from his players, who only recently took down Brisbane on this very ground.

VERDICT: Either team to win by 15 points or less 

GWS v Essendon, Giants Stadium, 2.35pm

GWS coach Adam Kingsley calls a spade a shovel. It has been a feature of his first year at the helm of the Giants and has held him and the club in good stead. It’s not hard to believe a few home truths have been delivered this week in the wake of a shocker against Port Adelaide.

The Giants were torched early and uncompetitive throughout, placing their finals hopes in jeopardy. They need to rebound against an Essendon side that has won its past two, albeit narrowly against West Coast and North Melbourne.

Even though GWS sit one spot below Essendon with an identical 11-10 win-loss record, the advantage of playing out at western Sydney is too big to ignore.

VERDICT: GWS to win 

St Kilda v Geelong, Marvel Stadium, 5.25pm

If Geelong needed an indicator that St Kilda were up for their pending battle, it came in the form of Ross Lyon’s pre-game press conference this week. “We understand what’s at stake … you win four (points) over the next two weeks and you play finals.”

It is not as simple for the Cats. They need to win their last two games against the Saints and Western Bulldogs to have any chance of defending their flag. Jeremy Cameron put the premiers on his back against Collingwood, but it still wasn’t enough.

The return of Tom Hawkins will no doubt help and give Lyon plenty to think about. Importantly for St Kilda, they have scored freely in recent weeks. Can they do the same against a quality rival?

VERDICT: Geelong to win

Adelaide v Sydney, Adelaide Oval, 5.40pm

Matthew Nicks knows full well that the growth of his side is pleasing and has gained the respect of the football world. But a finals berth would validate the rise of the Crows.

As a result, this game against Sydney is non-negotiable. The Crows have just missed interstate against Collingwood, Melbourne and Brisbane recently. Those formlines, coupled with the fact they are a formidable opponent at Adelaide Oval, is hard to overlook.

But the Swans are charging also and while the defensive side of their game could do with a tweak, they have rediscovered their attacking flair.

VERDICT: Adelaide to win

SUNDAY

Western Bulldogs v West Coast, 11.10am

Adam Simpson’s hold on the West Coast coaching position is becoming more tenuous by the week. If the Western Bulldogs are fair dinkum (and they should be after a horrible loss to Hawthorn last Sunday), Simpson could well be preparing for his final match at the helm in round 24.

The lack of resistance by West Coast against Fremantle was appalling. That was at home. The Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium are slick and knowing full well that they need to get two wins from the final two rounds to play in September, they should be looking at the ultimate flex.

No Tom Liberatore (concussion) isn’t ideal, but it would be a major shock if the Bulldogs forwards aren’t afforded every opportunity to boot a huge total.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs to win by 60 points or more

Melbourne v Hawthorn, MCG, 1.20pm

Melbourne continue to provide great water cooler content. Are they a legitimate premiership threat or merely nuisance value?

Had they beaten Carlton last round, it might have been the former. As it is, injuries to key personnel is threatening to thwart coach Simon Goodwin’s designs on a top-two finish. If they are to play a meaningful role in September, they should be accounting for Hawthorn.

The Hawks are in good nick, but will be without injured forwards Mitch Lewis and Chad Wingard. Let’s hope Jai Newcombe and Clayton Oliver can go head-to-head in the midfield.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 1-39 points

Fremantle v Port Adelaide, Optus Stadium, 2.40pm

They would have preferred not to lose four straight games, but the response from Port Adelaide was immense. It was a brand of football that shredded Greater Western Sydney and served notice to the rest of the competition.

The defensive side of the equation is still a bit iffy, but Port’s midfield depth and options in attack are the envy of many. To say they will present Fremantle with a stiff football audit is an understatement.

The Dockers have been impressive of late, their win over West Coast also a powerful display. No Michael Walters here though does hurt.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide to win

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