Races

Michael Heaton’s Friday Esperance Preview

Posted on | Posted by Michael Heaton

RACE 1

SPECKLES is 54 days between runs but drops back to 1600m and should have some residual fitness after consecutive 2200m starts. She’s placed at three of her last four starts at Northam – including two over a mile – and brings stronger alternate form. TALKABOUTYOU improved sharply stepping up 300m second-up and maps to get a lovely run. He’s a 19-start maiden but should be afforded every chance here. MISS SPARKLE looks extremely green and raw but appears to have a motor. Steps straight to 1600m at her second race start but the inside draw probably hinders her chances with her current racing style. MR HOLLYWOOD has been bitterly disappointing lately but his form earlier in his campaign would be winning this.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 10 – 2

Suggested Bet – SPECKLES WIN

RACE 2

THUNDER OF GUNS joins Freddo Brown’s stable to have his third trainer in the space of six starts. He wasn’t suited first-up at 1000m and was off the track the entire but his early form is more than good enough to measure up here. JACKEMJAMES was the target of betting support first-up for dual-licenced jockey-trainer Colin Haddon and he was held-up badly on straightening before hitting the line strongly once clear to run third. The 100m drop in distance may not necessarily benefit him but he went too well last start to ignore. ISHINCA VIEW is a career maiden but has placed at two of her three last starts and will be running on late. FAULT next best.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet – THUNDER OF GUNS WIN

RACE 3

COLD AS COLD was held-up at a crucial stage two starts ago but was still beaten less than 2L in a 64+ and gets 2kg on Westernize and 2.5kg on Whim Creek from that outing. He drew wide and had to work early before crossing to the breeze last start and looks suited dropping back to 1100m in a race with more speed engaged. OUR PANDEMONIUM steps up in class but has finished full of running at her last two starts and will be suited by the expected strong tempo. COUNTER DRIVE ran better than reads on paper first-up in a 60+ at Belmont when making late ground and finishing less than 4L off Costume Party, Glasgow Girl, Ginger Jones and On The Full. He won a 58+ at Kalgoorlie carrying 1kg more than this six months ago. WESTERNIZE ran well first-up before a plain performance last start and will be looking to bounce back.

Numbers: 5 – 9 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet – COLD AS COLD EACH-WAY

RACE 4 

MARKET STRYKE pulled up with vets excuses after finishing a long way back last start but looks like making a nice horse for the Bay of Isles. He has finished in the money at nine of his 12 career starts and was beaten less than a length by Saturday city winners Vitalize and Galaxy Affair only two starts ago. Good form for an Esperance C2. WINSALOT ran well first-up at 1300m before an even effort second-up at 1400m. The drop back to 1200m should suit and she can position up closer from a better draw. NITRO FRED won his maiden in convincing fashion last start and has the speed to get across from his awkward draw. GIANCANA is probably the most interesting runner on the program to analyse. She’s a lightly-raced 5YO mare whose form from two seasons ago would be winning this but she’s only raced once in the last 17 months and has drawn the extreme outside.

Numbers: 1 – 10 – 6 – 8

Suggested Bet – MARKET STRYKE WIN

RACE 5

BALLADEER was posted three-wide and without cover last start but still managed to run second to Magniforce and beat home four rivals who he meets again here. He gets 1kg on Magniforce from that effort but more importantly maps to get a much more favourable run in transit. I AM SPARTACUS has come back better than ever. Ran the fastest closing sectionals of the day when resuming from a freshen-up and bolting in with 60kg and then had some traffic issues second-up but still finished off brilliantly with 62kg. Now drops 4.5kg and the wide draw shouldn’t be a concern with his racing style. MAGNIFORCE showed he’s still got it last start and there’s no reason why he can’t win again. NOBLE REFLECTION was a fresh winner before a flat run second-up but he’s capable of bouncing back.

Numbers: 7 – 3 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – BALLADEER WIN

RACE 6

WARZACHANTZ won four-straight last Esperance season but was caught in traffic at a crucial stage on straightening first-up at 1400m and the bird had already flown by the time he got clear. He resumed without the benefit of a trial beforehand but still ran well and any natural improvement and racing luck should see him hard to beat here. JUST STRIKING steps up in class after two dominant C2 victories and appears to have returned bigger and better this preparation. FAIR JUSTICE has burnt punters lately and has drawn the extreme outside here but she hasn’t been getting beaten far and this race still maps out okay for her if she can blend in three-deep with cover. SALVARA caught the eye second-up and should relish the extra 300m.

Numbers: 2 – 7 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet – WARZACHANTZ WIN

Same Race Multi – Warzachantz (Top 2) + Just Striking (Top 4)

RACE 7

COUNT GRUNDY ran well at his first start for trainer Georgia Grant to display some of the old fight he showed in the metropolitan area a couple of preparations ago. It was a brave effort to hold on for third after getting pressured and headed turning for home and the step up to 1600m here is more in his wheelhouse. AMELIA’S PICANTE has hit the line full of running at both starts this campaign and is building towards a win. The step up to a mile looks ideal. THE HUNTSMEN finally broke through for his first win at start number 26 last start. He’ll appreciate the rise to 1600m and maps to get every chance again. ROCKING THE MERC was a fresh winner before getting caught in an awkward position on straightening last start. Happy to give him another chance.

Numbers: 2 – 11 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet – COUNT GRUNDY WIN

Quaddie (Race 4 – 7)

1,6,8,10

1,3,7

2,5,7

2,3,4,11,13

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