Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Finals Week 1

Posted on September 1, 2022 | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Brisbane v Richmond, Gabba, 5.20pm

How can Brisbane, with their undermanned and suspect defence, hold up against an expected Richmond onslaught to change the narrative surrounding their finals fortunes under Chris Fagan?

It is perhaps the most prudent point of this contest where the Lions have the benefit of home-ground advantage, but are under the most pressure to prove their legitimacy. They have had just under a fortnight to right the wrongs of the round-23 shocker against Melbourne.

As for the Tigers, they are bobbing along nicely and were boosted at selection by Dustin Martin’s recall. He is going to spend time in attack alongside Tom Lynch, Jack Riewoldt, Shai Bolton, Noah Cumberland and Maurice Rioli Jnr. That is problematic for Brisbane.

VERDICT: Richmond by 1-39 points

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FRIDAY

Melbourne v Sydney, MCG, 5.50pm

You know what you are going to get from Melbourne … a fierce battle in the contested-ball stakes and an opponent that defends superbly. To say it has served them well over the past 12 months is a gross understatement.

Conversely, Sydney are arguably as flexible as any team in the competition. They have become very proficient in contested ball over the past two months after being poor in that area earlier in the year and John Longmire is not frightened to change his game plan from week to week.

What he dishes up to Goodwin and the Demons initially here makes for intriguing watching. The Swans can be very bold with their ball movement. It’s just whether they are going to have the time to execute at their optimum.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 1-24 points

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SATURDAY

Geelong v Collingwood, MCG, 2.35pm

Much like Brisbane and the questions surrounding their defensive frailties, many good judges feel Collingwood’s inability to stand toe-to-toe with their opposition at clearances is not sustainable … especially at this time of the year.

We are about to find out the answer. The Magpies are more than happy to surrender the midfield battle and defend brilliantly, with many of their attacking thrusts launched from the back half. It would be a massive shock if the Cats allow them that luxury here.

Indeed, Geelong’s scoring firepower is going to command a great deal of attention. Jeremy Cameron returns from a hamstring strain to work alongside All-Australian skipper Tom Hawkins and reliable sidekick Tyson Stengle. The trio have been destructive all season and can extend that to this match.

VERDICT: Geelong by 1-39 points

Fremantle v Western Bulldogs, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

Fremantle’s huge blow earlier in the week — the loss of Nat Fyfe to a hamstring strain — was offset when the Western Bulldogs announced in-and-under midfielder Tom Liberatore was also hamstrung and would miss.

The Dockers can take some comfort from the fact they have operated smoothly without Fyfe for extended periods this year, while an improving weather forecast should soothe the soul also.

The key for the hosts to advance to the second week of September is not only starting well, but taking their chances when they present considering they aren’t an offensive juggernaut. Another Rory Lobb masterclass like the one he produced in round 21 would help.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 1-39 points

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