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Digby’s AFL Round 7 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Richmond v Hawthorn

Friday, MCG 5.50pm

Are Hawthorn up to their eyeballs in the premiership race or on the decline? Some clarity in regards to the question could well be revealed in the aftermath of this match. The Hawks were pumped to the tune of 75 points by Greater Western Sydney last Saturday, with their lack of hard work and appetite for the contest at a level we haven’t seen from Alastair Clarkson’s men for several seasons. Fortunately they have to wait only six days to redeem themselves.

And though they will be forced to make do without inspirational captain Luke Hodge, they are fronting up to Richmond, who have lost five in a line and will be missing their skipper Trent Cotchin. Unlike the Hawks, the Tigers aren’t blessed with a swag of A-graders and Cotchin’s absence hurts big time. Richmond were unable — or willing — to cover Port Adelaide’s run last Saturday night and their handball-happy nature worked against them. Given the scrutiny surrounding Hawthorn’s performance against the Giants, a response will be coming and much intrigue surrounds how the Tigers stand up to it.

The unavailability for a second week of Alex Rance in Richmond’s back half will again prove a hindrance. Though the Hawks are still missing Jarryd Roughead, they have a wealth of goal-kicking options in Jack Gunston, Luke Breust, James Sicily, Cyril Rioli and Paul Puopolo. Rance is the general of Richmond’s back six and without him last week, the defence looked disorganised. If Hawthorn are able to get a toe-hold through the midfield, made easier by the surprise dropping of Ivan Maric, and spread possession with their elite kicking skills, the Tigers will be at the mercy of the premiers.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 40 points

1st Goal Scorer: Luke Breust

Collingwood v Carlton

Saturday, MCG 11.45am

There’s not much Carlton supporters relish more than a win over Essendon. On second thoughts, perhaps a victory over the arch enemy Collingwood. Fresh from courageous triumphs over Fremantle and the Bombers in successive weeks, the Blues set out to notch another win over the vulnerable Magpies. Solid for two quarters against West Coast and simply blown away in the other two terms en route to a 62-point loss to the Eagles, Nathan Buckley’s side is facing a six-day break with a testing interstate trip thrown in.

The Blues haven’t strung together three consecutive wins for more than two years, but under the direction of Brendon Bolton and the list management of Stephen Silvagni, Carlton fans won’t have to wait that long again, even if Collingwood win this match as expected. The Magpies stretched the necks of West Coast, with the leadership and influence through the midfield of Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar and Jack Crisp important. Giant American Mason Cox proved a handful for the Eagles defence at stages and the loss of young Blues key back Jacob Weitering (shoulder) could prove significant.

Carlton captain Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Dale Thomas have had their share of detractors in recent times, but their efforts in the past two games have been telling and the return from a calf strain of young gun Patrick Cripps ensures the load is shared even further. Thomas would dearly love to continue his excellent run of form against his former side and he may need to given Levi Casboult’s struggles in front of goal and Liam Jones cannot be relied upon to kick multiple majors consistently.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 19 points

1st Goal Scorer: Darcy Moore

Geelong v West Coast

Saturday, Simonds Stadium 12.10pm

West Coast coach Adam Simpson has made it known that he is not a fan of the term “flat-track bullies” being used to describe the Eagles. He may have a point considering West Coast advanced to the 2015 grand final. But there is no denying they are 0-2 away from Domain Stadium this year following defeats to Hawthorn and Sydney, extending an alarming road record, and tipped by bookmakers to lose to another rival premiership contender in this contest.

Geelong tuned up for this encounter with a 20-goal thrashing of Gold Coast, thanks in no small part to Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood. Key forwards Tom Hawkins and Shane Kersten each bagged four goals courtesy of silver service, while Steven Motlop and Nakia Cockatoo added three apiece. The firepower Geelong have forward of centre will extend the Eagles, who need their midfielders to hold their ground — something they were unable to do against the Hawks and Swans.

An efficient display in front of goal wouldn’t hurt the Eagles either. West Coast have been inaccurate for too long now and must seize the bulk of opportunities when they present. Simonds Stadium can be a difficult venue for interstate sides to handle, but in a positive for the Eagles, its dimensions are extremely close to that of Domain Stadium. This is a match which isn’t beyond Simpson’s side, but the overall spread of talent in the Cats’ running division, and the fact that many of their on-ballers are in good form, tips the scales in the hosts’ favour.

VERDICT: Geelong by 14 points

1st Goal Scorer: Steven Motlop

Sydney v Essendon

Saturday, SCG 2.35pm

Humbled by Gold Coast in round one, only to be extremely encouraging in the ensuing three weeks — highlighted by a shock victory over Melbourne in round two — Essendon have really battled in the past fortnight and are now faced with their most daunting assignment yet. Sydney at the SCG remains one of the toughest tasks in the game and even the return of experienced pair Mark Baguley (soreness) and Craig Bird (thigh) has been offset slightly by the loss of experienced small forward Mathew Stokes (hamstring).

The Swans were made to work overtime by Brisbane at the Gabba, but still had sufficient talent and experience to prevail. Lance Franklin kicked five goals, giving him 23 for the season, while the influence wielded midfield by Luke Parker, Dan Hannebery and Tom Mitchell was undeniable. The Bombers don’t bat as deep in the following division as they have in recent years for obvious reasons, but David Zaharakis, Brendon Goddard and Adam Cooney are capable, and Zach Merrett is going to be a star.

Perhaps the biggest concern for Bombers coach John Worsfold is manufacturing a winning total. Essendon are averaging just over 60 points a game despite amassing big possession numbers. Overuse of the football against the Swans in the tight confines of the SCG is a recipe for disaster. In a year where the top eight is extremely even and percentage is crucial, expect the Swans to afford Essendon no mercy.

VERDICT: Sydney by 71 points

1st Goal Scorer: Lance Franklin

Gold Coast v Melbourne

Saturday, Metricon Stadium 3.10pm

The best news that came out of South-East Queensland this week was that Gold Coast players challenged their captain Gary Ablett to start winning more contested ball and dispense with the conservative, some might say selfish, approach he had adopted in recent weeks. Clearly conscious of his injured shoulder and the need to string together games which he hasn’t been able to do since midway through 2014, Ablett had been guilty of picking and choosing which contest to attack.

The fact that his teammates had the gumption to demand more suggests they no longer are satisfied with chalking up AFL appearances. Rather, they are desperate to win and know everyone needs to pull their weight. That Dion Prestia performed as strongly as he did in the debacle against Geelong last Saturday night with a sore shoulder was terrific leadership. He had few mates in that regard. But the Suns weren’t the only disappointment on the Saturday, with Melbourne getting ahead of themselves for the second time this year when thumped by St Kilda.

The Demons freewheeled in the first term, but were unable to apply the clamps to the Saints after quarter time and would have lost by more than 60 points had powerful young spearhead Jesse Hogan not bagged seven goals. Despite their issues against the Saints, Melbourne remain one of the better clearance sides in the competition and, thanks to Hogan, extremely proficient in the contested-marking stakes. The Demons have had their share of problems against the Suns at Metricon Stadium previously, but it wouldn’t be a massive shock if they were to use last week’s loss as the perfect tool for realignment.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 11 points

1st Goal Scorer: Jack Watts

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide

Saturday, Etihad Stadium 5.40pm

Etihad Stadium has proven a fortress for the Western Bulldogs in Luke Beveridge’s brief tenure as senior coach, but the prospect of back-to-back losses at the Docklands venue looms large here. Outclassed by North Melbourne last Friday night, the Bulldogs must find a way to return to the winner’s circle to avoid sliding to 4-3 and undoing much of the prosperity surrounding the club. It will be easier said than done given the Crows have emerged as genuine premiership contenders under Don Pyke.

Adelaide were a long way removed from their best against Fremantle, but still won by 33 points. Their potent forward line didn’t run as smoothly as we have seen, though the threat of Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins, Tom Lynch and Eddie Betts remains. With the Bulldogs unable to call on Jason Johannisen (hamstring), Robert Murphy (knee) and Matt Suckling (ankle), their team defence will need to be at its optimum. Adelaide score heavily and quickly and Jarrad Waite’s influence last weekend suggests Walker and Jenkins loom as major stumbling blocks.

At the other end of the ground, the Bulldogs’ forward structure also requires a tune up. Jake Stringer is off the boil and though Tory Dickson is back in the line-up, the lack of a key marking target against the Kangaroos was costly. That Brad Scott opted to allow the Bulldogs to have an extra around the contest in favour of a spare in the back line, will not be lost on Pyke. The Bulldogs failed to handle the pressure of North also, especially with ball in hand. It might serve as a wake-up call for Beveridge, but it could also be a blueprint for opposition teams.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 15 points

1st Goal Scorer: Eddie Betts

Fremantle v GWS

Saturday, Domain Stadium, 6.10pm

How times have changed. Accustomed to efficiency, discipline and success, Fremantle coach Ross Lyon has now resorted to talking about effort and competitiveness for abbreviated periods of games. Just nine months after claiming the minor premiership, the Dockers are in free fall, as evidenced by being the only winless side in the competition and parked at the foot of the ladder after six rounds. One positive for Fremantle fans is that their club’s plight has forced Lyon to promote youth.

The Dockers have dished out some heavy punishment to GWS since the expansion side entered the competition. Indeed, the Giants are winless in six visits to Perth, with their inability to cope with Fremantle’s and West Coast’s pressure, and the capabilities of moving the ball through the lines at Domain Stadium, extremely stark. But they head west in terrific form, the mauling of premiers Hawthorn catching the attention of the football world. Sturdy in defence, brilliant through the midfield and potent in attack, it was the most complete performance turned in by a GWS side.

Jeremy Cameron remains the Giants’ No.1 goal kicker, but the development of Rory Lobb, evolution of Toby Greene and recruitment of Steve Johnson gives them a different look that will well and truly stretch a Dockers defence missing Michael Johnson. As for Fremantle, Matthew Pavlich is no longer capable of kicking bags, Chris Mayne struggles to convert and Hayden Ballantyne isn’t the player he once was. No Nat Fyfe and no Aaron Sandilands doesn’t help either.

VERDICT: GWS by 30 points

1st Goal Scorer: Steve Johnson

St Kilda v North Melbourne

Sunday, Etihad Stadium 1.20pm

North Melbourne continue on their merry way and would love nothing more than to extend their unbeaten sequence in 2016 to seven games and ensure Drew Petrie’s 300th game for the club is remembered for all the right reasons. On what we have witnessed in the first six rounds from Brad Scott’s team, that is a fair expectation. The Kangaroos dominated the Western Bulldogs last Friday night, with their pressure and harassment of Luke Beveridge’s side first class.

St Kilda are also heading in the right direction, as evidenced by their victory over Melbourne. They may have won four matches less than the Kangaroos, but they adhere to the defensive principles of the game and are well placed in the current climate due to their bold ball use. Nick Riewoldt was magnificent from the outset against the Demons and worked well in tandem with Tim Membrey, who kicked five goals in his first game for the season after being recalled in place of the rested Paddy McCartin. The presence of Riewoldt, Membrey and Josh Bruce in the Saints’ attack will ask much of the Kangaroos’ defence given its issues with big forwards in recent times.

A feature of North’s rise this year has been a healthy and deep midfield operating underneath Todd Goldstein. Andrew Swallow was superb against the Bulldogs and along with Jack Ziebell, Ben Cunnington and Ben Jacobs, gives the Kangaroos strength at the clearances. That in turn is being capitalised on by their forwards, chiefly Jarrad Waite, who is clearly in career-best form. The Saints have struggled in this fixture in recent times, but this match promises to be closer than many expect.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 19 points

1st Goal Scorer: Josh Bruce

Port Adelaide v Brisbane

Sunday, Adelaide Oval 2.40pm

Port Adelaide now have a baseline. It might have taken six weeks to discover it, but the Power players and coaches can no longer be satisfied with anything less than what they produced against Richmond last Saturday night. Missing Chad Wingard, Robbie Gray, Jackson Trengove and Alipate Carlile, Port were dialled in from the outset and, for the first time this season, willing to defend like an accomplished AFL outfit. Jared Polec’s return after a stint in the SANFL and Nathan Krakouer’s first match following a club-imposed suspension were undeniable positives.

Can the Power replicate it? One would think so, even taking into account Brisbane are bolstered by the return of Dayne Beams and were particularly brave last Sunday against Sydney. The Lions started well, hung tough and then surged late, only to come up short as the experience and class of Sydney’s proven performers came to the fore. The Lions and Stefan Martin insist he is over his brutal round-four bump from Steven May, but his efforts in the past two weeks haven’t been great. If Martin is at his peak, he should dominate third-gamer Dougal Howard.

That Wingard returns from his delayed concussion and Charlie Dixon appears to be warming to his work, along with the opportunistic talents of Jarman Impey, puts this game well within the Power’s reach. It would be a massive shock if the Lions were able to stun Ken Hinkley’s men for the second time in 12 months, especially given this match is at Adelaide Oval.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 32 points

1st Goal Scorer: Chad Wingard

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Digby Beacham is Deputy Sports Editor of The West Australian




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