Races

Scott Embry’s Wednesday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

LENIENCY was nabbed in the shadows of the post by Sisu Warrior on debut when lumping 59kg on a Heavy8. Thought the effort was brave and he looks a horse with ability. The barrier makes things interesting but with no natural pace/speed engaged thinking that Troy Turner may opt to roll forward and if he gets across without burning too much petrol looks the horse to beat. AIYZA backs up off a strong effort at 1000m behind Just Go and Rupert’s Empire. Love the use of the Holly Watson claim. CHERRY’S A STAR has only seen wet tracks in her short career to date. Didn’t get much room to move at stages last start. BIRD’S THE WORD had no luck last start.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet – LENIENCY WIN

RACE 2

FLY AWAY HOME looks really well placed by Danny Morton into this all age maiden. We saw 7 days ago with Protégé and Shooting Kontiki that running 3 year olds against the older, more exposed maidens is a smart move and Fly Away Home drops down to 55.5kg, draws ideally and has a cutaway on offer (if required). Fourth to Mia Gusto and Uncle Gerard, fourth to Rejuva King, The Great Hoya and Uncle Gerard and went close behind Sunplay last start. Carries 2.5kg less than main rivals and gets a better run. MR MEGSEY, GEROGE GENTLY and QUEEN’S GIFT will all be winning maidens sooner rather than later.

Numbers: 13 – 2 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet – FLY AWAY HOME WIN

RACE 3

DANCE OF THE SOUTH has found a brilliant race. Backs up from Saturday, drops in grade, gains the services of a highly in form Holly Watson (with a 2kg claim) and strikes a race with no speed and no pressure. Should be able to rack and stack and then sneak away from them. IMA SLY FOX can be forgiven for his effort on Saturday when he did a lot wrong. Another who is on the quick back-up and could improve sharply. STEAK NIGHT will battle away. RUSTY SPIRIT showed glimpses of staying ability in Esperance.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – DANCE OF THE SOUTH WIN

RACE 4

DOUBLE JEOPARDY looks all at sea on wet track and his career record tells the story. In form and more than capable of winning what is a wide open 1000m dash. Has had 8 runs this preparation, the three starts on Good rated tracks: 2 wins and 2L fifth behind Go Forward and Hibiscus Lady. Goes round an eachway price and more often than not runs an eachway race. KING CRUZER hasn’t been seen since his trial at Belmont back on 20 June 2022 which is a bit of an unknown, however, he looks the map horse here. Can track up in behind the speed. OLGA LOUISA is a well noted wet track mare but she’s still capable on top of the ground. REQUISITION returns from a let up. Has been wide throughout his last two.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet – DOUBLE JEOPARDY EACHWAY

RACE 5

POSITIVE IMPACT was a victim of circumstances last week in a farcically slow run race. First 1500m was run a staggering 26L slower than C3 average and from there they were destined to finish in settling order. Backs up, drops back to 1700, blinkers go on and we’ll follow up. Still think he’s a Saturday horse in the making. GREAT FORTUNE looks a big improver second-up. Got shuffled back into an awkward position first-up and didn’t seem at all comfortable in the Heavy conditions. Straight up to 1700m and back on top of the ground. LUCKY HEART another improver on a Good4. Take away the two Heavy track runs and his last start he beat Westriver Miracle. MONG KHON has been relishing the wet tracks.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet – POSITIVE IMPACT WIN

RACE 6

SCOPRION STORMZ is particularly well placed by Josh Krispyn. Won a C3 five starts ago and since then has raced in a 0MWLY, 2x 72+ and 1x 66+. Drops back into a C3, gains the services of Brad Rawiller and it’s hard to argue with the form around Flying Missile, Chili Is Hot, Westriver Miracle, No Apology, Vital Flirt and No Change from his last three outings. Does round eachway and maps really well. NIIGATA didn’t get out until about 6pm last Wednesday. Had no where to go in the home straight and now 7 days later there’s a cutaway for her. SERVICEMAN is starting to put it all together. Paul Harvey riding extremely well and see no reason why he can’t win again. JOHNNY ANGEL ran into a nice horse in Let’s Deal last start.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet – SCORPION STORMZ EACHWAY

RACE 7

CHERRY CAN RUN was highly impressive winning her maiden beating home subsequent winner Beneath The Covers and Mr Megsey. Went to a C1 that most will expect to hold up as a form reference when splitting Vogue’s Choice and Oceanic Rider and is likely to go around a pretty juicy eachway price. Open and even race and she’s one of many hopes. CHOICE BID is 1 from 28. Doesn’t win out of turn but this is the kind of race where he could park up outside of Shake Baby Shake and go close. SOFIA’S SYMPHONY was scratched from Saturday to save for this. Astute move. VITAL GEM has a turn of foot but will need it from the barrier.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 13 – 1

Suggested Bet – CHERRY CAN RUN EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 4 – 7)

1,2,3,4,5

1,2,7

1,2,3,5,8

1,2,3,4,13

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