Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

HANCHI dominated vastly similar opposition to record an emphatic 2.3L debut victory. He sat in the breeze on debut and pulled clear from the top of the home straight and in this race a fortnight later he looks like landing the same spot in running. The way he ran on debut the extra 200m shouldn’t worry him and he should prove too strong. Looks a nice animal in the making. WEERAECHOUX was the luckless runner in the same event. Got back, found traffic and only got clear once the bird had flown. Liked the trials, liked the run. AYUMI hasn’t done anything wrong to date and maps well. BLAZING EMERALD is screaming out for even further but regains William Pike’s services.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 6 – 7

Suggested Bet – HANCHI WIN

RACE 2

WAR GEM trialled particularly well leading into his return to racing and put in a ripper over what looked to be an unsuitable distance (1000m). He should hold a prominent position in running, has run well previously on rain affected tracks (placed twice on Soft6) and is well placed back into this Westspeed Platinum grade. Neville Parnham’s yard is going particularly well and he’ll go round eachway. VALENCY has returned a bigger and better mare this time in. She was stiff not to go close last start when looking for a run the majority of the home straight, held really tight at stages. If she runs a strong 1400m she’ll come hard late. DIFFERENTIATOR was enormous at her return. Always dictated to by her racing pattern. WITHOUT REG is two from two this preparation and gets another very similar run in transit.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 8 – 4

Suggested Bet – WAR GEM EACHWAY

RACE 3

NOD AND SMILE is on trial at the trip but does look a handy and progressive 3 year old (a phrase which will also be rightfully lobbed towards I Love Your Smile). Won a maiden by 8L on a heavily rain affected surface, finished second in a 60+ 1800 behind Mahaleo and then was caught three and four deep the trip (without any cover at any stage) in a 60+ mile last start. He can kick through to lead or take the trail and looks a live eachway hope. I LOVE YOUR SMILE is coming through a weak maiden and a weak C1 but she’s getting better with racing and really attacking the line. Gives every indication the further the better and Lucy Fiore can have her tucked away midfield with cover throughout. IHTS CLOSING INN continues to show up. 12th run of the preparation and still going well. MANAVENDRA looks like he’ll stay.

Numbers: 11 – 12 – 7 – 4

Suggested Bet – NOD AND SMILE EACHWAY

RACE 4

SUPERSESSION went into every blackbook that his name wasn’t already in at his return to racing. He travelled strongly at the rear of the field and was faced with a wall of horses from the 800m mark of a 1000m scamper. He never got out and when he eventually saw an inch of daylight he was sprinting brilliantly without any prior momentum. Think he’s better drawn out than in and this looks very winnable for a horse of his ability. POT SHOT goes lengths better for William Pike than anyone else. She’s stepping into relatively unchartered territory at 1200m but can save all the ground along the fence. MISS DRAKOVA trialled exceptionally well for her return breaking 1 minute comfortably over the 1000 at Belmont. Considering she’s only a C1 there’s a big preparation ahead for her. PRINCESS CHUNK is a raw talent from the Goldfields.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 9 – 13

Suggested Bet – SUPERSESSION WIN

RACE 5

HARMIKA looks a great chance in this 1000m Graduation. She ran a luckless second at her return off the back of two nice trials, won over 1100m (beating subsequent winners Honey Dew and Tallangatta) in this grade and then finished second to highly progressive mare Category Three. Happy to follow that through as a form reference and happy to suggest she’s better suited over the short course than the 1200. Ticks plenty of boxes. SENORITA DOROTEA was huge last start when tramping wide throughout. She’s drawn to park and ride the speed. MEGA REWARD won well last start and the stable is on fire. Respect. SHAKA ZULU is undefeated and looks well and truly above average.

Numbers: 4 – 8 – 7 – 9

Suggested Bet – HARMIKA WIN

RACE 6

MOI CHOUX has had 8 starts since arriving in WA in the care of Summer Dickson. He has won three and placed on three other occasions. He’s never missed the top 4 in WA, he goes well fresh and he’s a proven wet tracker (carried 63kg to victory on a Heavy8 at Sapphire Coast). There’s nothing wrong with tracking up three deep with cover over 1000 at Belmont and he’s shown previously he more than measures up at this grade. GHOST WHO WALKS “is as honest and consistent as they come” – that’s the description used at his last three outings. Ctrl C + Ctrl V. TOP OF THE POPS wasn’t at his brilliant best last preparation. Produced by a stable who knows how to freshen them. CAPITAL FLIGHT has X-Factor.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 11 – 5

Suggested Bet – MOI CHOUX EACHWAY

RACE 7

QUEEN ALINA is shockingly unsuited at WFA. In a handicap she would be getting 15.5kg and 16kg off Dom To Shoot and Startrade respectively. Everything in the weights and measures column of the form says that she can’t be winning, but the eye says she’s more than good enough to get over these. Going to go against everything logical (WFA – no, second-up 2000m – no) and roll the dice in the hope/expectation that she’s progressive enough to sit back and zap them. If she was to be victorious here the Handicapper could justifiably give her between 23 and 27 points…..would make for an interesting Monday morning discussion in the office! NOTORIOUS ONE won’t go straight but even running sideways he’s going well enough to be highly competitive. STARTRADE needs to prove himself at 2000m but he’s the kind of horse who has been under-estimated every start for 12 months. DOM TO SHOOT is not the same horse on rain affected tracks.

Numbers: 7 – 5 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet – QUEEN ALINA WIN

RACE 8

CATEGORY THREE looks the kind of mare who can make her way right through the grades over winter. She put in a sharp trial over 930m at Lark Hill when flashing home late down the centre and then had to duck and weave a passage through them first-up to win impressively. Extra 100m helps and there should be a three deep train for William Pike to blend into mid-race and work her through her gears. She’s got plenty more in store. KEEP ATTACKING over did it badly in the Sky Provincial Series Final. Has been a great race for subsequent winners (Civvy Street & Captain Sharmane already) and he reunites with Shaun McGruddy. PROBITY is a noted wet tracker who is dangerous from three back the fence. KOSTA’S CROWN is quickly forgotten by the market.

Numbers: 8 – 11 – 12 – 9

Suggested Bet – CATEGORY THREE WIN

RACE 9

GINGER BAKER has come back to racing in career best form. He doesn’t have the same excitement factor or flashiness (is that even a word?) as many of his rivals but he’s proven in the wet and he’s proven over a mile. Think there’s a fair few in this line-up who are a big query at the trip so while he’s in form he’s a safe eachway selection from the ideal draw. SAVAGE ONE worked hard in that messily (confident that’s a word) run race last start where there were five and six across the track at stages. Has a lovely Belmont mile card. THE SPRUIKER never got clear in that same race and gets his preferred surface on Saturday. ABOVE THE PEG likely sits back and saves for one last crack at them. Pike kind of ride.

Numbers: 7 – 10 – 9 – 11

Suggested Bet – GINGER BAKER EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,2,3,4,5,11
1,2,5,7
8,11
3,7,9,10,11,13

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