Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

GENERAL GRANT is only coming from a lowly C1 event but looks to have genuine upside. Didn’t handle the Heavy track conditions at his return to racing so if you purely go off his sharp 950m Lark Hill trial win and his last start victory with 60kg then he looks like a horse who is capable of going through the grades. This is not a deep line-up and Shaun McGruddy can have him wherever he wants in running. SPEEDY MISS is the proven commodity in this grade. Always runs well, highly consistent but just struggling to break through and pinch one of these. Unlikely to get a better chance than this. STRAWBERRY MIST comes from a race where they smashed the clock. She was deep and working throughout. Better run than it reads on paper. NICK OF TIME ran an identical L600 to the winner (General Grant) and yet finished last.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 7 – 5

Suggested Bet – GENERAL GRANT WIN

RACE 2

TRIX OF THE TRADE had his first crack at Saturday racing last start and was gunned down by He’s A Sizzler in the concluding stages. They both step to 1400m here and Trix Of The Trade gets a 2kg weight swing to assist in turning the tables. Love what he has produced so far in his career and he looks like settling closer than He’s A Sizzler in the run. See no reason why he can’t turn the tables. HE’S A SIZZLER sat back and watched the race unfold last start before unleashing a powerful turn of acceleration. Again looks the testing material and a horse on the rise. CHEERFUL MOMENT brings intrigue after a soft maiden win. Looks like he’ll only get better as they step him out over further. ELITE FIGHTER let down impressively to break his maiden.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – TRIX OF THE TRADE WIN

RACE 3

SASSY TRADER finally found a race where he was able to roll to the top and stay out of traffic and trouble. Dominated from the fence and ran time too (5L faster than average) when never looking like he would be run down. Keshaw Dhurun retains the ride and strikes another race where he should find the front and control the tempo. From there Sassy Trader looks hard to run down. DUNBAR has been plagued with bad barriers this preparation. Don’t think he’s any star but this is clearly his best map and chance yet to break through. ABSOLUTE will sit back and get it soft in what could turn into a rails race. MICKEY BLUE EYES did it tough last start and kept coming.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – SASSY TRADER WIN

RACE 4

ROMAN FLIRT is simply a different mare when William Pike rides her. She travels strongly and she lets down at the end of her races. Feels like the Pearce Brothers are about to have a purple patch (already started) and she can definitely win this and better races as they get her out over a trip. Looks like settling one out and one back in a genuinely run race and should be going very close to making it two on the trot. PHONEME is extremely well placed back into 66+ grade. Last time he was in a 66+ he was a winner and since then has gone round hard in the market in 72+ races. SEMINOLE BRAVE is knocking on the door and looks ready to win. SPECIAL VIEW steps out in trip and up in grade which allows Hayden Ballantyne to engage a senior rider.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 7 – 8

Suggested Bet – ROMAN FLIRT WIN

RACE 5

CAMPESE is bursting to win a race. Two starts ago came charging down the centre of the track when matching motors with the highly progressive Kaptain Kaos (subsequent 66+ winner) and then last start was bolting in the box seat behind the eventual winner Zephyr Queen when chopped out in marginal room against the fence. Still flashed late and looks like he has now found his race stepping out to 1400m. Stacks of speed in this and he should be finishing over them. OHBEEH is probably on his limit at 1400 and with pressure likely to come from Next Stop The Moon, Recharger and San Crispino he may be a sitting duck late. ROCKY PATH is drawn a gate to settle a pair or two closer than usual. Puts her right into it. LONEHAND LARRY is struggling to break through for his second career win but has undeniable ability.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 9 – 5

Suggested Bet – CAMPESE WIN

RACE 6

LA FAROLA looks in for a big preparation. Her trials were soft and impressive when cruising around in second gear and then looked to have a 72+ 1400 all wrapped up when she let down brilliantly at the 300 to swoop on the leaders. It took the entire length of the straight and the first use of the whip this campaign to get Notorious One past her and he is on the path to next weekend’s Farnley Stakes whilst she stays in the same grade and only rises half a kilo. Reproduces the run and should go one better. KELLY’S CALLISTO is importantly drawn inside of Magniforce and Harry Thomas which should ensure he finds the fence. From there he is always hard to run down in this grade. NO APOLOGY can box seat on Kelly’s Callisto and follow him through when he kicks for home. RED PUBLISHER is a stretch at a mile so back in trip suits.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – LA FAROLA WIN

RACE 7

PICTURE PERFECT might be the forgotten horse in the race with Pike sticking with Sugar Cain. He was well supported in betting two starts ago to beat The Spruiker and then when the shades went on last start was again heavily supported in a 72+. Couldn’t reel in Kelly’s Callisto and looked like he was screaming out for further. Gets to the staying trip, Laqdar Ramoly keeps him at a winnable weight and he has the tactical speed to take up a position just behind them. Open race and a live chance. AXEL ‘R’ EIGHT comes from one of the fastest staying races of the season on raw times. Out and out stayer who will be searching to run them into the ground. SUGAR CAIN has hit form and from three back the fence she’ll always be dangerous late. BORN TO TRY seldom runs a bad race and has shown that she’ll run as well for the apprentices as she does for the seniors.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 10 – 1

Suggested Bet – PICTURE PERFECT EACHWAY

RACE 8

REFLECTIVITY is a throw at the stumps in a 1000m scamper where there doesn’t look to be a natural leader. Ridden for speed in the Listed H.G Bolton at 1200 where it took in form mare Amasenus the entire length of the straight to gun him down. Showed it was no fluke in the Ngawyni when finishing fourth (Too Close The Sun third). Between Reflectivity and Charleton Eddie they should take care of the speed and with the stable and jockey both firing he can give cheek at a price. ISEERED ISEERED comes into this $100,000 race out of a lowly 66+ when getting the better of All Day Session and Bumper Humper in a race which was run to suit him. Possesses a stack of raw ability and with a number of rivals drawn awkwardly he can take advantage of barrier 1 and be right in the firing line. Likely to divide opinion. SON OF A GOD and EXCELLENT DREAM are both drawn to do it tough but both have the talent to get the job done with any luck.

Numbers: 2 – 8 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet – REFLECTIVITY EACHWAY

RACE 9

MOOD SWINGS comes into this first-up no trial and importantly is drawn a barrier. Last preparation he won a 66+, placed twice in 66+ and placed in a 72+. Has the gate speed to stalk Spin The Knife in running and if he gets leg weary late in the race Mood Swings should be right place, right time. SPIN THE KNIFE was one of the sharpest (see what I did there) 400m jump outs of recent times on Monday. Sizzling time, untouched and looks ready to go through the grades. Drawn to jump, run and play catch me if you can with the weight. SILKINIZE should be suited by the hot tempo and can flash late. OUR BOY DYLAN measure up in town and looks to have come back bigger and better.

Numbers: 3 – 12 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet – MOOD SWINGS EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,5,6
1,2,5,7,10
1,2,3,4,8
2,3,5,6,10,12

Market Market

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