Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

STORM COMMANDER put the writing on the wall on debut when chasing hard behind Beads into second placing. Was able to turn the tables last start care of a 12/10 ride from Chris Parnham when somehow managing to lob one out one back from gate 12. Going to need a similar steer here from an awkward gate but provided he gets across to the breeze he looks clearly the one to beat. KNOT SECRET should land in the first 4 and then will likely gain some cover as horses like Storm Commander come across. Trial win over It’sarayday reads up brilliantly and he looked a ready made race horse. FOREVER AUTUMN has been a professional trial black booker and took that to the races at his return. Hit the line powerfully and now has a barrier to work with. GUARD THE SAFE hasn’t drawn a gate for his past two.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet – STORM COMMANDER

RACE 2

EXPRESS TIME won second-up when backing-up off 7 days, dropping in grade and breezing in a Westspeed Platinum 58+. Neville Parnham follows the same recipe for success here with his mare backing up off 7 days, dropping in grade from a 60+ to a 58+ and after the claim for Laqdar Ramoly carries a half kilo less than she did when winning in this grade three starts ago. No luck last week, going well, great race for her. BEDOUIN BELLE is a hard mare to catch but these types of horses tend to grow a leg for W.Pike as witnessed on Wednesday. SNIPPY MISS was a strong winner last start and is a highly consistent and honest mare. Never far from the winner. SHE’S VITAL an improver at odds.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – EXPRESS TIME WIN

RACE 3

COMES A TIME is a noted back-up horse. Last victory was off 7 days at Belmont Park, over 1000m, in 60+ grade, on a soft track when leading throughout. Backed up again 7 days later when stepping into 66+ company and was run down in the shadows of the post by a red hot Amasenus who went on to win again in 72+ and placed at Listed level. Comes a Time finds himself off 7 days, 72+ back to 66+, 1200 back to 1000 and in a race where he can track the speed from an inside draw. Should go well. CAPTAIN KINK is rarely seen in this company and if Kristy Bennett can fire him out to sit on speed he’ll take running down.  MATERIAL WITNESS is attacking this grade for the first time in his life but definitely looks a 4 year old on the rise. Belmont Park should suit him down to the ground. SILKINIZE has the right form but the wrong barrier.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet – COMES A TIME WIN

RACE 4

BLACKWATER BAY can be forgiven for his last two outings when covering additional ground and having to be put into the race a long way from home when drawing wide gates and striking races which didn’t unfold the way the stable would have liked. Laqdar Ramoly takes over to bring the weight back down to 58kg and hopefully he can slot in midfield with cover rather than having to do all the donkey work. Going much better than his last two look on paper. SUGAR CAIN is the kind of mare who goes 10L better for Pike than anyone else and her last win was on the quick back-up. SLUICE BOX is becoming a bit of a tease. Clearly Ash Maley has him flying but he continues to find bad luck and traffic. On trial at the staying trip but hard to argue with the way he’s going. MELARAB should be able to find the front without absorbing any pressure.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet – BLACKWATER BAY WIN

RACE 5

TENA KOUTOU is a raw and progressive stayer on the rise and he should be going very close to adding another feature win to his name at set weights. Capable of sitting on top of the moderate tempo and capable of sustaining a run. He has shown versatility and toughness in a whirlwind preparation that has seen him elevate from a 4 horse Kalgoorlie maiden to a Listed winner in the space of 4 weeks. KERMAN ROCK looked plain on face value in the Aquanita but in the field of 6 Lucy Warwick can find the front and ride her own race. CHILI IS HOT sat closer than expected in the Belmont Oaks in what proved a tactically genius move by the yard. BARONOVA is a proven staying filly who had no luck in the same race when caught up behind tiring horses.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 5 – 6

Suggested Bet – TENA KOUTOU WIN

RACE 6

PLAYING MARIKA has always shown glimpses of brilliance in her career after bursting onto the scene as a 3 year old filly when winning her first three in style. She gets through the wet tracks, she travels up strongly in her races and she simply runs for Lucy Warwick. Tricky gate to contend with but if she gets in midfield with cover she’ll be looming large turning for home. TRUE ATTRACTION comes back from an eye catching staying effort to the mile and provided he stays out of trouble he’ll be winding up late in the race. FUHRER finds a new home with Debra Lewis and he strikes a race without any real speed and pressure. Beware leaving Mitch Pateman alone in front too long. FRIARESQUE is always a winning chance in this grade.

Numbers: 7 – 5 – 6 – 3

Suggested Bet – PLAYING MARIKA WIN

RACE 7

BROOKLYN PIER should be bouncing back here after two defeats as favourite against the older horses in a 78+ and a 72+. Finished less than 1.5L off Jericho Missile and Excellent Dream before finishing 1.5L off Amasenus and Silkinize. This is one of the weakest 3 year old 62+ handicaps of the season to date and expecting that Laqdar Ramoly will be coming out running in an attempt to find the breeze. Gate makes things interesting but class should take him a long way. ALL DAY SESSION is on the back-up from a strong effort behind Secret Plan. Had a wide gate and had no luck at all in running. Keep safe. POKER FACE is coming up sharply in grade but has pace to burn. SKETTA will be finishing powerfully late but may just need further.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 7 – 9

Suggested Bet – BROOKLYN PIER WIN

RACE 8

REAL GRACE was backed solidly at her return in a 3 year old 62+ and then nothing went right for her and her supporters when she was over-racing and knocked around in between runners throughout the middle stages before being eased out of the race to finish an unflattering last. Given a freshen by Team Williams and then was another tough watch last start when unable to find clear running and open air until the race was all over. Pike has the luxury of jumping back aboard and with the right run she should be finishing over the top late. AGENT JAY has shades added to gear in a race without a lot of speed and pressure. If he finds the fence he’ll take running down. WAKAN TANKA doesn’t win out of turn but won in style last start. JAG THE JOKER will need a peach from McGruddy.

Numbers: 9 – 1 – 7 – 6

Suggested Bet – REAL GRACE WIN

RACE 9

THE SPRUIKER is just a nice horse going through the grades powerfully and rapidly. Beat Timely Outburst first-up at odds in an effort which shocked many (not SJ Wolfe) and then backed it up with another impressive tradesman like effort in 3 year old grade. Last time out took on the older horses in a 66+ and was given the ride of the meeting when landing one out one back from barrier 13 before letting loose to fend off Bright Diamond and Playing Marika. Lonsdale Lady made the form look even better last weekend and from the draw he gets the same ideal run in transit. ABERDEEN QUEEN is the kind of mare who races without much luck. She’s drawn an awkward gate where she likely has to drag back to last. Concedes him a head start and that makes things tough. CAMBIST can sprint well fresh. SPEEDY MISS is racing well and gets weight relief but as we saw with I’m Pretty, cautious about the 58+ form.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 5 – 7

Suggested Bet – THE SPRUIKER WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

3,5,6,7
1,3,7,9
1,9
2

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