Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

MISS MARGAUX gets another wonderful opportunity to open her account. Was huge on debut when setting a blistering mid race tempo before giving a kick only to be run down by Karijini Aurora. Didn’t live up to market expectations at her second start behind classy stablemate Last of the Line before being freshened and again going under as favourite. Bounced back to a bit of form at her most recent and either leads or breezes here. JUST UNDER comes from the same race and was every bit as good as Miss Margaux. Not a lot between them and Just Under draws far softer here. SPIRITED LAD caught the eye at his most recent when making considerable late ground behind talented duo Beat the Bro and Giant Leap. FINAL CHILL will be artificially short with Pike aboard. Is fairly limited.

Numbers: 8 – 9 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – MISS MARGAUX WIN

RACE 2

SURVEILLANCE has only had the two career starts and on debut ran into the highly talented Dom to Shoot (eventual second place getter in the Sires Produce) and then went to the Pinjarra Magic Millions when running a strong second to Gemma’s Son, who was undefeated 4 from 4 before being rolled in the Karrakatta. Strongest form in the race and the trials have been good enough. SHE’S GOD TO YOU ran a ripping race on debut when charging through the line. Improves with experience and drawn to get a nice run midfield. KING LUICIFER was well thought of on debut and didn’t fire a shot. Has been back to trials since and expecting a better showing. MISS IVY LEAGUE likely comes out running with Shock Result to try and cross. Grand effort to give cheek behind Reign of Fire last time out.

Numbers: 1 – 11 – 7 – 2

Suggested Bet – SURVEILLANCE WIN

RACE 3

WUNDERKIND was Chris Parnham’s choice of ride before Queen Brown was scratched. She draws the inside on debut and provided she jumps cleanly should land in a great position. There is not a lot of exposed speed in this race and she should give cheek. MYSTERY MAN has looked the goods at trials. Likely to settle in the back half of the field and will take a special debut effort to win from there but he looks a raw talent with a turn of foot and a motor. With even luck he should be going close. DEVINE BEAST trialled up well for her return to the races. LEFT AT DAWN showed a bit and could be worth throwing into novelties.

Numbers: 14 – 7 – 13 – 6

Suggested Bet – WUNDERKIND WIN

RACE 4

SHOWMANSHIP is putting on a clinic at the minute. Going through the grades faster than the handicapper can keep up with. Another perfect placement getting him in on the minimum and this is probably the last time we will see him this campaign. Should cap off a sensational preparation with another win. Clearly his toughest test to date but has been coming through every test with A+ results. WRINKLY and ABDICATOR are no slouches and they will be running them along out in front. If there is a chink in Showmanship’s armour logic says it’ll be a leader who causes the boilover. NOT TO BE MIST is a talented horse and we’ll be following him into his third up run for sure.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – SHOWMANSHIP – WRINKLY/ABDICATOR EXACTA

RACE 5

LEVITATE should continue the dominance of late season 3 year olds against the older horses. Backs up off 7 days and drops in grade from a particularly high rating 3 year old 1400 which was run 3.5L faster than average. He was only collared late by Bright Diamond and Puckapunyal. Previous to that finished a nose behind Indian Pacific, gapping Resortman and Aberdeen Queen. Comes across and should simply run them off their legs. No surprise to see him plunged. MONTELENA and TIFF HAS SPOKEN both come from the same race and both look major minor end players. SOWAR will get back in running and may need an ounce of luck to get in but ran well fresh with a big weight.

Numbers: 2 – 11 – 8 – 9

Suggested Bet – LEVITATE WIN

RACE 6

WINE NIGHT returned in a blaze of glory first-up. Was extremely well commissioned off the back of a hot trial and her efforts in the Pinjarra Magic Millions and Challenge Stakes at the end of last preparation. Should again towball a hot tempo behind We’ve Got Dreams and Mia Dolce and from the box seat she is more than capable of making the step into Saturday grade. WE’VE GOT DREAMS gave 66+ opposition a sprinting lesson two starts ago. Comes back to her own age group and gets the services of a noted front running apprentice. AMELIA’S ON FIRE maps to get a lovely midfield run. BOOMTASTIC will need a Pike special from the horror draw.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet – WINE NIGHT WIN

RACE 7

INDIAN PACIFIC much like Levitate earlier in the day is extremely well placed taking on the older horses. First-up was able to find the front and control the tempo at 1200m and hold off the late challenge of Windstorm, with Mood Swings and Captain Kink left further back in the field. Then stepped to 1300m, smashed the clock on a soft6 (4.5L faster than average) and had to dig deep under 59kg to hold off Levitate with a gap back to Resortman and Aberdeen Queen. Likely to cop some pressure here but he is super talented and tough. NERODIO drops in weight and draws a gate to settle closer in the run. Wasn’t disgraced last start and has a big turn of foot. SIR MAMBO is in career best form and maps to get a soft run one out and one back. LONG BEACH is undeniably talented but will need to produce a PB to win from nearly last.

Numbers: 4 – 6 – 2 – 12

Suggested Bet – INDIAN PACIFIC WIN

RACE 8

FUHRER was beaten 9L last start but it was a herculean effort not to have been beaten 20L with the work that he did and the overall race time. For 66+ grade they went 6L faster than average and the race has already unsurprisingly produced 2 subsequent winners. He maps to get it soft one out and one back and could well prove the value in an evenly graded Aquinita Stakes. UNCLE DICK is lightly raced and in his first preparation but is improving at every outing and looks like he is screaming out for the trip. Will settle last and that could see him vulnerable. EURASIA ran into Chantrea last start and that could prove to be Listed quality form on Saturday. NO APOLOGY was gifted the race last weekend when stealing two of the slowest mid race furlongs of the season to date. Backs up again off 7 days.

Numbers: 6 – 8 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet – FUHRER EACHWAY

RACE 9

KAY CEE is looking to complete the Raconteur, Belmont Guineas, Belmont Oaks treble. First time past 1800m in her life but gives every indication that she will eat up the ground. Isn’t the type of filly who will accelerate away from them and win by a gap but knows how to win and Steve Parnham has given her 12/10 rides her last four outings. See no reason to tip against the class mare at set weights. CHANTREA is the new comer who has been kept away from the feature race scene. She oozes quality and if landing on the back of Kay Cee will be game on. CAMBIST always goes round at a price for a filly who never runs a bad race, can stay and has a turn of foot. KARIJINI AURORA should get a softer run than last start.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – KAY CEE WIN

RACE 10

SERENITY BAY returned in a blaze of glory first-up when ridden to perfection and scoring soft in the finish. Comes up in grade but draws a gate and has the necessary tactical speed to take up a position in running. There looks a distinct lack of speed in the event and she should be smoking the pipe just in behind the leading brigade. KING BLITZ has huge X-Factor about him. Ran a massive race 8 weeks between runs at his most recent and this is a much more suitable race for him. Obvious danger. ROCKON TOMMY gets his chance to find the fence for the first time in the preparation and can improve sharply. FRED DAG has hit form and seldom runs a bad race.

Numbers: 14 – 1 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – SERENITY BAY WIN

Quaddie (Race 7 – 10)

4,6

3,4,6,7,8

1,2,4

1,14

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