Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

KING OF LIGHT was super on debut when settling last in running, following highly touted youngster Aberdeen Flyer into the home straight and then sprinting on past him in the home straight. It was the win of a nice horse and expecting that he’ll safely take care of rivals to remain undefeated. VATICAN STORM was in that same race and got into all sorts of bother in the home straight. Looked like he had something to offer if the gaps had appeared. RADIANT LIGHT trialled well behind Twisted Steel and then was closing the margin late on Mardusa on debut. MEDIA CLUB kept coming under pressure on debut.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 4 – 10

Suggested Bet – KING OF LIGHT WIN

RACE 2

SUPERNATURAL again steps up in grade but stays on the minimum. She’s coming off a last start Heavy victory and given the amount of rain that the metro area copped on Wednesday night/Thursday morning it’s likely to be at least in the soft range come Saturday. These progressive fillies on the min are always hard to hold out and while this race has more depth expect she’ll take beating. COOL MEMORY sat outside Richanco first-up at 1200m and returned a winner and second-up was squeezed out late in a 76+. This is a great race for him if he can roll to the top. SUNNY HONEY has had no luck throughout the entirety of his preparation. He deserves to win one, he’s been tough in defeat. HELL I AM is building.

Numbers: 10 – 3 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet – SUPERNATURAL WIN

RACE 3

LUCKY I AM is just thriving on being ridden for pure speed and relishing the wet track conditions. Great opportunity for Chanel Cooper to open her Saturday winners account with aj ump and run horse with only 55.5kg on her back. YORGA PRIDE was three from three undefeated leading into the WA Breeders when beaten under 3L by London’s Image at Bunbury. Was immediately tipped out for a spell and now returns off the back of a strong trial. She’s got gears. SNOW GOD was heavily commissioned at stages in betting last week and ran really well, however, he’s again dealt a tough barrier/map? GOD’S GATE beat the older horses impressively last start.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet – LUCKY I AM EACHWAY

RACE 4

ARCADIA PARK won the Aquanita – FANCY RED won the Belmont Oaks. Which race is the stronger form reference? There’s no doubt going into the race that the boys division had more depth (Our Paladin Al, Elite Missile, Redback Flyer) but there was something to like about the way that FANCY RED sat back, cut her way through the conditions and the traffic and burst clear late. Going to go with the filly. ARCADIA PARK is drawn barrier 1 in a race without much speed. Does he lead or does he box seat on Lano? LANO is up in grade but is bred to stay. LILLIAN did a stack of work in the Oaks.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet – FANCY RED WIN

Same Race Multi – Fancy Red (Top 2) + Arcadia Park (Top 2)

Playing very simply this week: using the SRM to create a fixed odds Quinella. A lot of the time the SRM of two equal favourites will pay considerably better than on the tote having a Quinella, so we’ll bank on the Aquanita winner Arcadia Park and the Belmont Oaks winner Fancy Red fighting out the finish.

RACE 5 

FAMOUS DAIN just couldn’t quite reel in Lano last start in a 60+ Graduation over 1690m at Bunbury on a Heavy track. He’s ‘up in grade’ but don’t think this race has any addition depth to it and yet he drops 2.5kg and gains the services of William Pike. Drawn to stalk a solid tempo and should be given every possible. ARCADIA KNIGHT was a last to first winner on a Heavy at Pinjarra and then never got into the contest second-up. STYLISH LOD is a model of consistency but does seem to find it hard to win races. KISSES FROM KELLY does his best work at Belmont and wasn’t disgraced first-up in a 72+.

Numbers: 2 – 7 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet – FAMOUS DAIN WIN

RACE 6

WANT A WINNER suffered his first career defeat at the hands of Desert Whisper last start. He’s back out to 1200m and considering that filly nearly pinched a 72+ last week at Bunbury there’s no issue with the form. He should bounce out and take cover on the speed that comes across from out deep and all of a sudden he’s likely to be nearly eachway. ESSENTRIC NATURE burst onto the scene with a brilliant first-up C3 1100m win at Bunbury and trialled well at Lark Hill. Nice type. OBJECTIFY can mix her form but her best is good enough to win this. HORCRUX is better ridden for speed. Without Pike he’ll balloon in price.

Numbers: 9 – 13 – 10 – 11

Suggested Bet – WANT A WINNER EACHWAY

RACE 7

MASAMUNE deserves to win another this prep. Was no better than 3 deep the trip behind En Plein Air three back, got a squeeze out and had genuine excuses two back and last start was the only horse to make ground behind high speed filly Desert Whisper. Going super. KARNUP QUEEN was seriously stiff last week at Bunbury. She ran fourth beaten nearly 2L but watching the replay it’s easy to sell yourself that with clear galloping room she nearly wins that event. Great placement on the 7-day back-up. TRUE APOSTLE lumped 59.5kg first-up and peaked late. SOLDANELLE is a hard mare to catch but Stef Vahala has now figured her out: she’s best fresh and she doesn’t stay!

Numbers: 1 – 14 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet – MASAMUNE EACHWAY

RACE 8

SURF PATROL is knocking on the door and looks to strike a very winnable race on the 7 day back-up. Closed off well behind Fancy Red in a C3 1400 (she’s since won a 60+ Grad, Belmont Oaks and likely jumps fav in the Belmont Classic), finished half a length off Simply Thinkin’ and gets a 1.5kg weight swing and then last week ran third in a 3 year old Plate behind Timeless Gem. All stacks up. ANTIQUE STAR was held up the entire last week and looked to be bolting. SIMPLY THINKIN’ is a mare in form and is versatile. MY JIMMY trialled like the horse of old. Hopefully he can show it on race day.

Numbers: 13 – 11 – 1 – 14

Suggested Bet – SURF PATROL EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

2,7

5,9,10,11,13,14

1,4,6,14

1,11,13,14

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