Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

SUCCESS PLAY finally broke through last start after being competitive in much stronger 3 year old Plate company prior to his maiden win. Half a length off Secret Deploy at 1400m, 2L off Red Fifty Three at 1400m and now stepping out to a mile. Looks like he’ll see out the trip and maps to get the run of the race and looks to have plenty of upside. MAHALEO was gifted the perfect run by Beaux Edwards last start when shooting up the inside of Kolchino to score. Rises in weight and quality of opposition but does look to have ability. TWICE LUCKY found a very weak C1 and broke back into the winner’s circle last start. PRINCE OF GUELPH was fair last start over further.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet – SUCCESS PLAY WIN

RACE 2

THE FRONT BAR burst onto the scene at Belmont over winter with two completely different wins back to back. Lead throughout over 1000m on a Soft6 to beat handy 3 year old He’s A Sizzler by over a length and then showed an incredible turn of foot when running them down over the short course from an impossible position at the 200 only a fortnight later. Her recent trial was sharp and she maps to get a lovely run behind Ultimate Command. ULTIMATE COMMAND is a jump and run 1000m type who has been tuned up with two 400m jump outs. Takes running down. PONYO is a big beneficiary of the early withdrawal of Flying Missile. From the breeze she’s a live chance. Super run in the Classic. KNOT SECRET is raw and talented. Draw hurts.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet – THE FRONT BAR WIN

RACE 3

STANDOUT ROSE was a strong winner last start rattling through the line to pick up Native Chimes in the shadows of the post. Looks ready to step out over 1400m, however, with the Westspeed Platinum final at 1400m Bruce Watkins astutely puts his mare into Heat 2 to qualify. Maps to get a lovely run midfield with cover and as she showed last start she only needs to be within a few lengths on straightening to be a big danger. MINI WINNIE trialled particularly well at Lark Hill and the form when last in work holds up strongly for a 58+. SMASHING has a bar on which is always a red flag, however, was stiff not to win Heat 1. NOWHITEFLAG will always bring attention as Fabergino’s little brother. Kicking through to lead brings him right into this.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet – STANDOUT ROSE WIN

RACE 4

GINGER FLYER has been a model of consistency throughout her career and is proven on the wet tracks should there be any residual dampness to the track on Saturday. Showed last start that she is versatile and if something wants to roll (ie Beaucount) then she is more than capable of sitting in behind the leader and bursting through late to win. Holly Watson’s 3kg claim gives Simon Miller the opportunity to stay in these similar grades of race. LORDHELPMERUN is 6 weeks between runs and has the bars on which raises queries but his first run for Michael Grantham was a ripper. ZERO DEMERITS hasn’t seen a race like this for 18 months and may be the forgotten horse. FASHION QUEEN beat up on battlers at Geraldton.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 7 – 10

Suggested Bet – GINGER FLYER WIN

RACE 5

GOD HAS CHOSEN had his first start for Lindsey Smith and it was hard to ignore. Was chiming in late in the race at 1100m and then was chopped out in the final 50m between Excelestial and Ghost Who Walks. Put the writing on the wall and now steps out to 1400m which looks to be suitable. Looks a raw talent who can go through the grades this campaign. Exciting type who has convinced W.Pike to abandon Peters Investments to take the ride. MARLIZE and GLAMOUR PACKED are both more than capable in this grade and both map to get the runs they require to play a part in the finish at eachway quotes. BERET is a hard mare to catch and with her racing pattern will need some luck in traffic at some stage.

Numbers: 9 – 6 – 10 – 2

Suggested Bet – GOD HAS CHOSEN WIN

RACE 6

SAVANIK is going through the grades nicely for Simon Miller and Chris Parnham. Maiden, C1, C3 and now tackles a moderate 60+ Graduation. Not a pretty race from a speed map perspective with little to no pace in the race so it will take a handy steer from Parnham to get her into the race at the right time but she’s a mare in form. JARMAN broke a long run of outs at Kalgoorlie on Cup Day and then backed it up with a solid second to Spritely Star. Showing tactical speed which may prove gold in this race. OUTBACK JACK is again drawn in the middle of nowhere but he has some upside. Liked his return to racing. SECRET PEARL was stiff not to finish close to Roman Flirt last start. Going well.

Numbers: 5 – 4 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – SAVANIK WIN

RACE 7

REAL CHARISMA looks well placed to score again. Resumed in a 66+ on the minimum and was one of the most popular runners in the Country when descending upon them from three deep with cover. Likely to land in an identical spot here and with a similar run she should go close to producing the same result. Lightly raced, highly progressive and has a powerful turn of foot. BIG BADA BOOM is no slouch and from the front he’ll stay out of trouble and hold an advantage over her in running. Big effort to win with 60kg first-up no trial and every time he goes to the races he seems to get better. BRAVE ANGEL was the replay run of the meeting at her return. Drawn better and looks to have come back well. PLAYING MARIKA is a 7-day mare. Keep safe back in grade.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 9 – 1

Suggested Bet – REAL CHARISMA WIN

RACE 8

WILCHINO got punters excited with what she displayed 7 days ago and post-race interview of Danny Morton only added fuel to the fire when he suggested he was slightly concerned going into the race that she was slightly underdone. Broke 58 seconds on a Soft5 when destroying 66+ rivals in a sprinting exhibition. Backs up off 7 days and finds herself in a crazy good 72+ running into the likes of Graceful Girl and Triple Missile. If she can reproduce and run them off their legs she’ll stamp herself a genuine contender for bigger races over the Carnival. TRIPLE MISSILE only won a 60+ Graduation but it was the manner in which he covered them which got the imagination going. Needs to stay in touch with them in the middle stages. GRACEFUL GIRL is the real deal. Her turn of foot is electric but without much natural gate speed she ends up three back the fence and will need gaps to appear. THIS’LL TESTYA can tow ball Wilchino if crossed early.

Numbers: 7 – 9 – 4 – 8

Suggested Bet – WILCHINO WIN

RACE 9

ELITE STREET is a Weight For Age Group 1 winner who simply looks the best suited horse in the conditions of the race. Meets all rivals from the Crawford Stakes better at the weights for beating them home and maps to get an identical run in transit. The way he returned to racing suggests he’s the one to beat in the Winterbottom and the way Danny Morton trains he’ll still have improvement left in him which is scary. INDIAN PACIFIC went round a well supported favourite in the Crawford but didn’t get past Mervyn at the top of the straight like most expected. Drawn inside of him here which is much more suitable. MISS CONTEKI brings intrigue. Not at all suited at Weight For Age but is a gun 1000m get back sprinter. Can she match motors with Elite Street? They might find themselves alongside each other in running. ROCK MAGIC is a marvel. Another stop on the farewell tour. Be there.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 9 – 1

Suggested Bet – ELITE STREET WIN

RACE 10

KISSONALLFORCHEEKS and WESTERN EMPIRE head the market in a tricky edition of the Asian Beau Stakes. The main reason it is tricky is because there is no leader in the race. Who takes it up? Does William Pike get left in front with Western Empire and punters have to relive the PTSD of the Lee Steere Classic? KISSONALLFORCHEEKS has met him twice and beaten him twice. She knocked off Kaptain Kaos and he went on the win the Northam Cup when backed as if unbeatable. Where does she get from the draw? NOTORIOUS ONE went around $1.55 in a Farnley Stakes when everything went wrong. LUKE’S GOLD is flying and grows a leg off 7 days. UNI TIME won the Birthday Stakes fresh. PLATOON and NAUGHTY BY NATURE were completely unsuited in the Northerly. If you’re still reading you’ve realised by now – I’m in 17 minds about this race.

Numbers: 5 – 9 – 8 – 6

Suggested Bet – KISSONALLFORCHEEKS WIN

RACE 11

SON OF BACCHUS has always promised to go through the grades and is starting to fulfil that potential. His last start win over Karijini Aurora and Staralign was arguably a better class and quality of race than what he meets here and the way he’s going he’ll be hard to hold out late at 1800. Rhys Radford’s yard is flying and Shaun O’Donnell seems to get the best out of this quirky animal. TEMPTACION drops considerably in weight and steps out to a more suitable distance. Most winnable race she has seen this campaign and looks ready to win. ROMAN FLIRT is in form and if she can get across and gain cover, she’ll be thereabouts again. MIDNIGHT BLUE is first-up at 1800m on a Perth Cup campaign. Hard to miss his recent 1450 trial.

Suggested Bet – SON OF BACCHUS WIN

Quaddie (Race 8 – 11)

4,7,9
2,4,9
1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9
2,3,4,7,11

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