Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

OCEANZARA sat in the breeze last start and was left flat footed and floundering when talented leader Prize Pursuit kicked into the corner and skipped away. From gate 1 Shaun McGruddy can take the soft run leader’s back and from there with even luck she can give rookie trainer Kirsten Melis her first winner. Looks to be a much weaker race than her most recent. BELAFONTE BOY and ROSSO TEMPTESTA will both be double figures and both have shown enough in the past to suggest they’re blow out hopes. BELAFONTE BOY ran a really nice race in 55+ company at 100-1 back in May and ROSSO TEMPESTA arguably should have won a race at Belmont through winter. KEEP IT HUSH is honest and consistent.

Numbers: 8 – 3 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet – OCEANZARA WIN

RACE 2

HEAVENLY WATERS and SNIPAROOCHY clash in what does look a match race on paper and will likely be reflected in the market (thinking ~$2.40 the pair). HEAVENLY WATERS has the slight barrier advantage in a race which looks to have a fair bit of early pace in the unraced brigade, especially stablemate Hoi An. Siding narrowly with her but no real lean. SNIPAROOCHY was one of the more impressive barrier trials of the 2 year old season to date and dominated rivals on debut. May need to work early to get across from what looks a sticky alley. EX SPORT MAN was a late betting move on debut to trouble Sniparoochy. Didn’t get within 4.5L and meets her on level weights. GOD’S DREAM ran home well on debut.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – HEAVENLY WATERS WIN

RACE 3

LA FAROLA is well suited in these set weights and penalties 3 year old races. Was backed off the map last start when getting the job done and meets a field which is no deeper. Only penalised 1.5kg and can roll forwad to sit outside Tambora. From there it’s a tactical affair Pike vs Parnham and La Farola has the runs on the board. CHILI IS HOT comes from the same race and finished off alright. Looks like the mile will suit her and she is capable of sprinting off the back of a moderate tempo. TAMBORA beat a field of battlers on debut. Nothing from that race has done anything of note since form wise and he is likely to open very short for a horse coming out of a midweek maiden. FREE SOLO is a maiden but looks to be improving with racing and distance.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 6 – 7

Suggested Bet – LA FAROLA WIN

RACE 4

CUBALLING wasn’t himself first-up no trial when last in work. Blew like the wind in betting and ran accordingly when sitting outside the leader and offering 0 in the run to the post. Went back to trials and then pushed Tajmali to a nose when getting minimal luck in the home straight. Recent trial was soft and in a race with a mountain of speed and a few big question marks on the map he is the one who will get a gun run behind whoever burns to take it up. WILCHINO was a brilliant trial and tremendous return to racing when skipping around Ascot 6.5L faster than maiden average. Talented mare Universal Pleasure made the form look good at provincials and if she can get across, she’s the one to beat. TINTO BELLE could conceivably be 10L off the leaders at the 600. Will need to reel off something special from back there but is a capable mare. CITY CIRCLE will be chasing but should get the right run.

Numbers: 1 – 13 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet – CUBALLING WIN

RACE 5

DIG DEEP won his first race since the Karrakatta Plate last start when the beneficiary of a patent William Pike masterclass. He should enjoy a soft run midfield with cover in a genuinely run 1400m and he can now start to fulfil his potential. Great race for him to make it back to back wins. ABDICATOR had a really competitive campaign when last in work and still dropped a luxurious 3 ratings points. Brings him back into contention in a ratings race and first-up last preparation he got within 2L of Group and Listed winners Perfect Jewel, The Velvet King, Angelic Ruler and Gatting. Don’t underestimate. SON OF A GOD is highly progressive but this is a nightmare map for him. Drawn outside Lorentinio, Abdicator and Harry Thomas. Looks really tough for him. Acid test. LUKE’S GOLD has been in white hot form for 6 months.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 6 – 7

Suggested Bet – DIG DEEP WIN

RACE 6

COMFORT ME really caught the eye first-up over 1100m behind Platinum Bullet and Resortman. Second-up he was dragged back to last in the Mandurah Cup in a race and meeting which was dominated by on speed runners. He came home in the fastest overall last 1000, 800, 600, 400 & 200 of the race and was a huge ‘get on me next start’ run. This is a deep 66+ full of quality but he is starting to stamp himself as an emerging talent. SOLAIA comes from a slowly run 60+ which hasn’t held up as a form reference race but she won it in style and her 3 year old feature form is super. RED PUBLISHER is brilliantly placed in this grade and the old boy always sneaks under the radar. LAST OF THE LINE trialled the house down and seems to be getting bigger and better.

Numbers: 6 – 8 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet – COMFORT ME EACHWAY

RACE 7

OUR IDYLL comes from the Solaia race which has seen a lot of subsequent money moves flop and flop badly (Tiff Has Spoken, Indominus, Dark Mission, Aberdeen Queen), however she stays in 60+ graduation company, draws an ideal gate, gains the services of William Pike and meets a far lesser quality of opposition. Seems to be improving into the preparation and is capable of sitting both on and off speed. Can be ridden to conditions and looks well placed to score. FIRESALE has his third run in a fortnight and his effort behind Ration Aly last week was brilliant. Dangerous with the right run. NO SURRENDER rolls to the top and always gives a cheeky kick. BEAT THE BRO finally broke through after a frustrating run of minor placings. Can go on with it now.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet – OUR IDYLL WIN

RACE 8

MOOD SWINGS was excellent first-up when narrowly defeated by in form 1000m specialist Leica Jaguar. Going to need to be good again here from a horror alley but there are a fair few noted midfield/backmarking types in the field so if Troy Turner can get him across safely without burning too much fuel then he looks awfully hard to beat. Has 3 year old form around Indian Pacific, Windstorm, Bright Diamond and Boomtastic. George Dupre’s team are low flying. EXCELLENT DREAM is his own worst enemy. Hangs badly at times and throws races away (like he did first-up). DOWNFORCE has been solid first-up and second-up and again maps to get every favour in running. DEW WEST drops back in grade and the Black Diamond has been a strong form reference race so far.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet – MOOD SWINGS WIN

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

2,3,6,7
1,6,7,8,9
1,2,5,6
8

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