Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on May 4, 2023May 4, 2023 | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

BONDI PLUNGE was scratched from Wednesday to save for Saturday. Carries only 52kg after the Luke Campbell claim and can park midfield behind what looks a really strong and spirited early speed battle (Sass Machine, Red Square, Soaring Solo, Eliteone) and provided she stays in touch with them she’ll be finishing off powerfully late. SASS MACHINE looks like she’s really well named. Watching her trial she clearly has a mind of her own and wants to go a million miles an hour as soon as the gates open. Looks a jump and run 1000m filly and from the inside draw expecting her to hold up. She went considerably quicker than Red Square over the 850m same day at trials. RED SQUARE may have to park in the breeze but looks professional. MASAMUNE looks to have a motor.

Numbers: 5 – 9 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet – BONDI PLUNGE WIN

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RACE 2

REAR ADMIRAL trialled like a bomb. Once the gap appeared on straightening she accelerated brilliantly and put them away in the matter of two strides. They’ve comfortably broken 1 minute in the trial and she gapped them by over 4L. She can either kick through to lead or park on Snippenova and from there she looks like remaining undefeated. Exciting times. SNIPPENOVA was a different filly when able to find the fence last start. GIVEMEONEREASON goes round shorter than his ability level every time he goes to the races. HAFEY has his first start in WA and didn’t have blinkers in his trial or much room to move at stages.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet – REAR ADMIRAL WIN

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RACE 3

COSMOPOLITAN GIRL and HARMIKA look the obvious quinella in the race. COSMOPOLITAN GIRL backs up off 7 days, drops out of a 3 year old 1200 where she was posted three deep the trip and finds a race without a leader. She can bounce out of the gates and take up the running with a strong Easterly breeze blowing her along. She’ll need to be good to hold out Harmika but she kicks into the corner and is racing extremely well. HARMIKA got a bit further back than anticipated at her return to racing. Eye-catching weaving a passage through late to grab second. She’s clearly the danger. HONEY DEW has had a freshen and will be running on late. TO RISE AGAIN tracks around Cosmopolitan Girl.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet – COSMOPOLITAN GIRL WIN

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RACE 4

MY FURY is simply a different horse with William Pike aboard. The Wizard has been aboard for all three career victories and he jumps back aboard here after she endured a tough run last start tramping three deep the trip without any cover. She can park behind Call Again and Black Spirit here and enjoy the run of the race. Looks the map horse. CALL AGAIN will go round a big price. Had genuine excuses last start, prior form was strong and comes back to 1400m. In front for a fair way. BLACK SPIRIT can park in the breeze and is a tough mare who loves a fight. PRAY AGAIN will get me for plenty when we get back to Belmont. Great return to racing and super trial.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – MY FURY WIN

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RACE 5 

JADAVI profiles really well for this. When you look at those engaged in this race there is no leader and no speed whatsoever. It will no doubt be turned into a sit and sprint where they’ll walk for the first mile and then sprint home the last 600m. Jadavi clearly has the best turn of foot and L600 in her arsenal and William Pike will sit back and look to sweep past them late in the race. Hard to hold out. PLAYING MARIKA has won two features this preparation and this race is likely to be run very similarly to the Diggers Cup (first 1200m 12L slower than average). LAST OF THE LINE is racing like the 2100m will suit. 60kg seems to be getting to him at the minute. SLUICE BOX gets a soft run and has change up speed.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet – JADAVI WIN

Same Race Multi – Jadavi (Top 2) + Playing Marika (Top 4)

Jadavi will sit back in the small field and has clearly the best turn of foot in the race. Think that she is really well suited in a sit and sprint staying race and she has William Pike on her back. Playing Marika steps into unchartered waters at 2100m but she’s absolutely flying this campaign.

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RACE 6

FEATHERWEIGHT was solid first-up off the back of an excellent trial. He probably settled a pair further back and wider than anticipated and considering how wide he had to come on straightening thought he did a good job to finish fifth. Senior rider goes on second-up, draws a far better gate to settle closer and enjoy a more economical passage. Looks a good race for him on paper. ABOVE THE PEG was a huge return to racing. There’s clearly more in store for him. Will have to concede them a decent head start again. CATALPA backs up off 7 days after a dominant return to racing. He’ll be making his way through the grades. KOSTA’S CROWN broke through last start and was really impressive. Finally fulfilling his potential.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 7 – 8

Suggested Bet – FEATHERWEIGHT WIN

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RACE 7

WEE RIPPER may get under the guard here. Only three starts ago he won an 1800m 0MWLY with 60kg as a well supported $4 favourite. All of a sudden having run sixth in the Narrogin Cup and then seventh when racing wide from the 800 in a 72+ he’s likely to balloon out to double figures in betting. Maps to get a great run and is more than capable of playing a part at odds. NOD AND SMILE put on a galloping exhibition in a Pinjarra maiden. Worth noting it was a rain affected surface (Soft7) and it was a heavily leader dominated program (4 leaders from 7 races, excluding the straight race). Interesting to see how he measures up. ARCADIA STAR chased hard behind Never Sober. She’s improving with racing. ACERMETRIC ran well last week and is thereabouts.

Numbers: 2 – 10 – 9 – 7

Suggested Bet – WEE RIPPER EACHWAY

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RACE 8

FLOWER IN THE WIND finished third in a 66+ two starts ago beaten half a length by Friar Away and Soviet Spy. She was tightened badly at the winning post the first time and lost her spot in running and then looked reluctant to take narrow gaps on straightening. Willing to forgive her last start failure and roll the dice at double figures on her returning to her best in this. FEAR THE WIND won like a stayer who would be making his way through the grades. Doesn’t look to be any speed in this so he’ll have to find a spot but if he reproduces, he’ll be hard to hold out. DUCHEES DEMERIT has come of age this preparation. Not much between him and Fear The Wind (except price). FRIAR AWAY is suited to sitting back and staying out of the race until the last 600.

Numbers: 9 – 6 – 7 – 1

Suggested Bet – FLOWER IN THE WIND EACHWAY

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RACE 9

NO CHANGE continues to race consistently well. He ran second to Magnificent Andy in a 72+ 1400 when fighting hard over the concluding stages and then was able to hold them off in a 72+ 1600 last start. Rises to 57.5kg but comes back into a 66+. Rock hard fit, tough, in form and sits on top of the speed. Ticks boxes for a horse who will go round eachway. MOJO RHYTHM is making his way through the grades impressively. A genuine tempo should only suit him better and he backs up off 7 days as he looks to make it three from three for Mitch Pateman. VITALIZE ran really well from off the speed in the Sheila Gwynne. She maps to enjoy the run of the race. NO DICE won well last start and gets the soft run she needs from barrier 1.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 3 – 8

Suggested Bet – NO CHANGE EACHWAY

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Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,2,3,5,7,8

2,4,7,9,10

6,7,9

1,3,5,8

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