Races

Scott Embry’s Friday Carnarvon Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

NICK OF TIME has found his feet on the Carnarvon dirt. He was a surprise winner at 20-1 two starts ago over 1200m in a C1 and then took a big step when heading straight into a 56+ and running into a white hot Test of Strength, who runs time. Not easy to go 1200 to a mile but he’ll be strong late and now that he’s handling the dirt barrier 1 is of less concern. SET THE SCENE continues to go round very short. Since breaking his maiden he’s gone won at $1.32, gone under at $1.80 and gone under at $2.30. PRORATED tried hard last start. Stepping out to a mile is unchartered territory but he’s going super. MAN FROM MEMPHIS wasn’t at the same level second-up.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – NICK OF TIME WIN

RACE 2

SPINIFEX FAIRY looks to have found a really winnable 1000m maiden. At this stage of the season at least half the field are looking for 1600m maidens rather than coming back sharply in trip to the short course. Only carries 52kg after the Ava Catarino claim and that means that even if she’s caught wide early she can keep punching forward. Like this set up for her. ME ‘N’ MORTS has had two runs in Carnarvon at C3 and C1 level. Far from disgraced in either and back into a maiden does look to get her chance. CITY MISTRESS is having her first start on the dirt. She’s got speed which really helps. HILLSIDE ROULETTE next best.

Numbers: 8 – 9 – 10 – 11

Suggested Bet – SPINIFEX FAIRY WIN

RACE 3

MOORUMBINE is going to need some luck from a tricky draw but this is certainly not the strongest 56+ of the season. There’s no Nights Mystery, there’s no Test of Strength, there’s no Heritage Sash or any of the other really in form sprinting types. Back to 1000 could be key. In town it’s ‘when in doubt back Pike’. In the country it’s ‘when in doubt back Austin’. WOJTEK and OLD TIMES are both coming out of the same C1. There’s not much between them and they won’t get a better chance to measure up at this level. MAJOR IMPACT brings intrigue. Only his second start in WA and ran well enough at Belmont to be competitive.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 9 – 5

Suggested Bet – MOORUMBINE WIN

RACE 4

RAGING BEAUTY was a tough watch last start. At the top of the straight Austin Galati came back inside looking for a run and it just never really eventuated for him. She probably ‘got clear’ at the 100 but by then it’s over – dirt racing is a momentum sport. Forgive and forget. HERO OF THE DAWN is still a maiden but both runs on the dirt have been handy. Would be a hugely sentimental win in a race honouring a legend of NW racing and humanity in general. Vale Don Hammarquist. SPLEPNIR is throwing it away at the barriers. Otherwise going well. ZERA BLUE looked good winning her maiden.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 7 – 8

Suggested Bet – RAGING BEAUTY WIN

RACE 5

HERITAGE SASH was enormous last start. He was dropping from 65.5kg back down to 58kg so he clearly thrived with the weight coming off his back from recent starts but not many horses tail off over the 1000 and then burst through traffic like he did. Sean Rains’ team is in form and now it’s over to Rosie Mahony to see whether she can keep him going. Winnable again. SPEEDING COMET hasn’t been seen for 6 weeks. Very dangerous with the right run and no doubt Tash Faithfull would have had options. TEST OF STRENGHT is absolutely flying. Running time and doing it tough. REGAL CITY, MYSTICAL MAN and MARXIAN begin their Carnarvon Cup prep.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 10 – 5

Suggested Bet – HERITAGE SASH WIN

RACE 6

THE DIVINE WIND doesn’t seem to run out a mile, coming back to 1400m looks a massive plus for him and he should be able to roll forward into a commanding position. Take away his last start effort when beaten a margin then he had been building towards another win. Taking the old boy on trust to bounce back. NERO CHIN CHIN is about as consistent as they come. He’s another who doesn’t seem to run out a mile so back in trip is a big plus. Tash Faithfull jumping off – not ideal. SUPERLOVE is better than last start. Tash Faithfull on and looking to lead them. Respect. GRACIEBIRD won well last start.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 5 – 11

Suggested Bet – THE DIVINE WIND WIN

Quaddie (Race 3 – 6)

1,2,3,4,5,9

2,3,4,7,8

1,4,10

2,3,5,11

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