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Robbie Von’s F1 Preview – China Grand Prix

Posted on | Posted by Robbie Von

Seriously, has there been a better weekend of racing to watch in years?!

The first F1 race of the 2026 season in Melbourne HAD. IT ALL. Confusion around batteries, young guns flying, big crashes (but no injuries!) and high octane driving from start to finish.

Here are the key storylines from Melbourne

Oscar Piastri crashing out before the race even began. The culprit appears to be a power surge, causing Oscar to spin out. Regardless, I’ve never seen an Aussie crowd so bummed out. Not a great start for the Aussie, in what we’re hoping will be his redemption season after 2025’s near miss in the World Drivers Championship.

Aston Martin’s Nightmare. Despite a disaster of a car, Aston did manage to get both drivers on the grid race day. Fernando Alonso was fast for a while but eventually the car was retired. Lance Stroll finished the race but was +11 laps. Interestingly, Alonso declared the potential in Aston Martin’s 2026 car as ‘huge’. Watch this space for improvement in the second half of the year.

The Red Bull young guns are QUICK! Isack Hadjar crashed out of the main race, but he did qualify 3rd. Red Bull will be stoked they have finally found a worthy teammate for Max. In the Racing Bull Arvid Lindblad finished eighth overall. A huge effort for an 18 year old on debut.

Max Verstappen is still the best driver on the grid! It’s hard to know if the Red Bull car is any good. Hadjar didn’t finish his race from third which means it’s unclear whether the team can compete at the top. For Max to go from twentieth to sixth is just typical of his skill, the man could find a way in a Billy Cart.

Ferrari is LIGHTNING off the mark. In qualifying Mercedes were clearly the fastest car. BUT Ferrari have a real advantage with their power units. Charles Leclerc jumped out of the blocks and powered from fourth to first in seconds.

Mercedes is the team to beat. George Russell had a flawless weekend. The Brit has seriously matured as a driver and a leader. The interesting watch is Kimi Antonelli. Crashed out in practice, the team rallied, Kimi somehow was back for qualifying. It was an impressive bounce back from the 19 year old. He should be nipping at George Russell’s heels all year.

With that, Melbourne 1 is done and dusted. The results are in and we move on to Shanghai for the Chinese Grand Prix this Sunday, no rest for the wicked! The big question, what does this mean for punters?

The first sprint weekend of the year is a HUGE unknown. How drivers will manage the new battery deployment and deal with clipping will be interesting in the shorter form race. I won’t be taking anything on the Sprint at this point. Let’s shy away from betting here and stick to the main race.

The Chinese Grand Prix

If Ferrari are Top 3 in Qualifying, then worth a look at ‘Leader after 1st Lap’ for Lewis Hamilton or Charles Leclerc (depending who is higher on the grid). The way both cars fired at the start of the race is an interesting watch. Have a look at markets after Qualifying and if Ferrari are at the pointy end, consider strongly.

The Russell/Antonelli partnership is looking strong, the evidence suggests that George Russell is going to be top of the tree most of this year, Mercedes just looks too quick. I’m taking Russell to Win early at $1.70. I’ll be adding Antonelli Top 3 for any multis.

As said earlier, Max Verstappen is the best driver on the grid. He had no right to come second in the Drivers Championship last year in that Red Bull. In Melbourne he took the Red Bull from twentieth to sixth. We do not know what the car can do at the top yet after Hadjar crashed out. So, I’m watching Red Bull this week. Let’s see how Max goes after he qualifies Top 6 (which he should). My gut says he’ll finish Top 3, but my head says wait a week.

Arvid Lindbald for ‘Best of the Rest’. At the time of writing odds for this market haven’t dropped, but after last week’s performance Lindblad has proven he’s a serious proposition. Ollie Bearman ‘Best of the Rest’ in Melbourne with a huge seventh in the Haas, but we can’t expect this sort of result from Haas every single week. Lindblad will have confidence in the Racing Bull set-up after finishing eighth on debut, I think he goes one better this weekend.

For Oscar lovers

Unfortunately, I just don’t think McLaren are quick enough right now. Relying on other teams to make mistakes is the only way McLaren make the podium in China. We’ll be leaving Oscar Piastri alone this weekend.

Plays for this weekend

Russell to Win.

Antonelli Top 3.

Ferrari to be leading First Lap (pending a good Qualifying Result).

Arvid Lindblad ‘Best of the Rest’.

Happy Punting!

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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