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Robbie Von’s F1 Preview – Japanese Grand Prix

Posted on | Posted by Robbie Von

LIGHTNING STRUCK TWICE… BUT SURELY NOT THREE TIMES? Piastri Heads to Suzuka

What is going on this year?! Shanghai somehow topped the chaos of Melbourne… and I didn’t think that was possible!

Let’s start with the headline.

Kimi Antonelli. Amazing. The 19-year-old kept his head while chaos unfolded around him, drove with maturity beyond his years, and delivered Mercedes a statement win.

McLaren had an absolute disaster. Oscar Piastri AND Lando Norris didn’t even take part due to mechanical failure. For Piastri especially, this is a catastrophe. Two races, two times he’s missed the start. Hopefully we’re not looking at a ‘things usually come in threes’ scenario here going into Japan.

In the end four cars ‘did not start’ and a further three ‘did not finish’.  The new cars and regulations are proving to be a serious challenge for most teams. Max Verstappen has gone as far as saying the new cars are a “joke” and reigning champion Lando Norris said “it’s certainly not the purest form of racing”. Could their negativity be linked to the fact they aren’t winning? There’s a good chance!

From a betting perspective China was good to us. “Antonelli Top 3” and “Ferrari to be leading First Lap” both came up trumps. While the drivers are hating it, the punters are doing alright. Let’s look to Japan for another good weekend.

The Japanese Grand Prix:

This is a track loved by drivers due to its free-flowing nature and pace. It will be fascinating to see how drivers handle these new regulations around Suzuka.  Fernando Alonso and Esteban Ocon are particularly complimentary of the track.

Mercedes have started the season in unbelievable fashion… finishing one and two in both Australia and China. It’s hard to see many, if any, teams capable of beating them this weekend. Kimi Antonelli made history in China, becoming the second youngest race winner the sport has seen. Antonelli (47 points) sits just behind Drivers Championship leader George Russell (51 points) and Mercedes as a team currently lead the Constructors Championship on 98 points. I think the market is a little short to take Mercedes on the ‘Team to feature Winning Driver’ market at $1.22. Kimi Antonelli at $3.75 to Win seems worth a look considering last weekend. Personally, I think George Russell will bounce back here to secure his position as ‘Top Dog’ of Mercedes.

Ferrari are interesting and I genuinely think the ‘Leader after 1st Lap’ market offers great value again. At the time of writing, the market hasn’t dropped yet, but if you look at the first two races Ferrari are a great bet here. Both Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc are in the mix, with Top four finishes across the opening two races. Ferrari is clearly a contender in 2026.  ‘Team to feature Winning Driver’ at $5.50 is a value proposition considering you get two bites of the cherry in this market.

For Australian F1 supporters the first two weeks have been a nightmare. Oscar Piastri hasn’t made it on to the track for lights out yet. McLaren were so dominant last year it’s hard to believe how the season has started. I predict more pain this weekend. McLaren should get points, but they won’t feature on the podium with their current set-up.

Haas are capitalising early and have become the clear ‘Best of the Rest’ team. Ollie Bearman has been the top finishing driver outside the ‘Big 4’ (Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull, McLaren) and I don’t see any reason why this should change. If the weekend goes as planned for Haas, I’m predicting a best of the rest hat-trick for Ollie Bearman.

Plays for this weekend

Charles Leclerc Top 3

‘Team to feature Winning Driver’ – Ferrari

‘Best of the Rest’ – Ollie Bearman

Happy Punting!

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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