Races

Michael Heaton’s Monday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Michael Heaton

RACE 1

NIGHT SHIFT didn’t get the best of luck first-up but wasn’t disgraced in a stronger field than this. Steps straight from 1100m to 1700m which isn’t ideal but gets in well after the use of the claim and her form last prep suggests she has more upside than most rivals here. MARKINSON has to lump 4.5kg more than Night Shift but has the benefit of a 1500m run at his last start when not beaten far. Should get every chance from the draw. MELWOOD COAST is a 23-start maiden who has had more than enough chances but there isn’t much depth here. RONELLEDO next best.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 7 – 6

Suggested Bet – NIGHT SHIFT WIN

RACE 2

BIRTHDAY BALLOT is very well placed back into a Maiden Handicap. Ran 4L off It’s All A Rumour, El Patron, Kelvinator and Bird’s The Word on a Saturday on debut, struck a heavy-10 track second-up then finished behind subsequent winners Leniency, Aiyza and Bird’s The Word last start. Drops a half-kilo here and C Parnham retains the ride. VISIONS OF GRACE makes her race debut off the back of a trial win over the (unraced) 2021 Perth Magic Millions sale topper when appearing to do it under her own steam. Drawn ideally with the cutaway in play. AIN’T SHE CUTE hit the line strongly in last start, has placed at five of her 10 career starts and can position up closer from this alley. BRING THE BLING will need luck but can play a part off her first-up third behind Western Knight and Smiling Girl.

Numbers: 9 – 8 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet – BIRTHDAY BALLOT WIN

RACE 3 

ANYOLDTIME has hit the line well at all three career starts and made a nice return when recording the fastest closing sectionals first-up. Stays at 1200m, draws the cutaway and should prove hard to hold out late. JAG SUPERTROOPER comes from a far deeper race when finishing behind Here’s Dreaming (subsequent Belmont winner), Laquetta’s Gift and City Angel. 1200m might be a stretch at this stage of her career? ROBERT THE BRUTE hasn’t raced for almost 12 months but ran third to Metallon on debut and maps to get a favourable run. SQUILLIONAIRE is a 4YO on debut who has trialled up well enough to play a part in this.

Numbers: 7 – 5 – 1 – 10

Suggested Bet – ANYOLDTIME WIN

RACE 4

NIIGATA was blocked for the entirety of the straight three starts ago, was beaten just over a length in a Belmont C3 two starts ago then chased hard in a very fast-run race won by Defending (who goes to Belmont on Saturday) last time out. Comes back into a moderate 52+ and Darren McAuliffe’s stable has hit form in the last couple of weeks. SHAKE BABY SHAKE is a consistent front-running type who can take running down if finding the rail. SHOCK RESULT hit the line strongly in this grade last start, has measured up in higher grade previously and is another suited with by cutaway draw. SNEAKY FOX resumes and will appreciate a drier track.

Numbers: 7 – 2 – 8 – 3

Suggested Bet – NIGGATA WIN

RACE 5

ZAC LOVES TO FLY has raced in higher grade at his past eight starts, meets Abloh a half-kilo better for beating him home two starts ago and was beaten only 1L in a metro 58+ last time out. Can roll forward and be there for a long way. ABLOH has raced in far higher grade at his past three outings, including finishing second in a moderate Belmont Graduation. Didn’t get much luck last start, is now brilliantly placed into a lowly 46+ with 59.5kg after the claim here and maps to enjoy a favourable run. LOOKS LIKE MAGIC has hit the line okay at two of her past three starts and gets the advantage of the cutaway here. PARLARE hasn’t had any luck in his two runs back and could be an improver with cover.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 9 – 4

Suggested Bet – ZAC LOVES TO FLY EACH-WAY

Same Race Multi – Zac Loves To Fly (Top 3) + Abloh (Top 3)

RACE 6

ROCKON TOMMY is a five-time Saturday winner (including a 76+) who has dropped 24 rating points since his last victory almost 1,300 days ago. He finished second in a 1700m metro 60+ at Belmont three starts ago, ran some of the fastest closing sectionals in the same grade when beaten only two lengths last start and now drops into a country 52+ event – the lowest class he’s ever seen in his life – drawn the cutaway. Now or never for old Tommy. ROMMEL’S JEUNEY looks the likely leader if he races off the five-day turnaround. Didn’t get any luck on Wednesday but his previous efforts are good enough to figure here. WILD GALAH won at this track, grade and distance nine starts ago and his eight runs since have all been in higher grade. Was beaten only two lengths first-up and maps favourably here. SMOKING BARREL was doing his best work late with 62.5kg first up and now drops 3kg.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – ROCKON TOMMY EACH-WAY

RACE 7

COSMOPOLITAN GIRL is looking for a winning hat-trick after all-the-way wins at her past two outings. Drops back to 1000m here which might be a slight query but is well-weighted for this grade after the claim and looks the likely leader again. LUCKY SUE makes her 3YO return after going within a neck of winning two Saturday 2YO races at the start of the year. Contested the Listed Supremacy Stakes, Group 3 Gimcrack Stakes and Group 2 Karrakatta Plate after that and brings intrigue. ROMERO has raced in higher grade at all nine of his starts in WA, is a proven 1000m type and the booking of C Parnham catches the attention. RATHMINE LADY might have to get a long way back from the wide draw but beats most of these on natural ability alone.

Numbers: 4 – 10 – 6 – 7

Suggested Bet – COSMOPOLITAN GIRL WIN

RACE 8

CHOOSE FREEDOM has only won two of his 37 career starts but has raced in exclusively higher grade all campaign and was beaten only a half-length when second to His Eminence last start. Well placed back into this class and is drawn to get every chance. ARROWSWIFT made good late ground in Saturday grade last start and looks suited up in distance and dropping sharply in grade. IMA SLY FOX’S best runs this campaign have been on heavy tracks but he’s another class dropper and should be able to ride the speed. MISS RONA next best.

Numbers: 2 – 9 – 6 – 1

Suggested Bet – CHOOSE FREEDOM WIN

RACE 9

KAZKAZI looks extremely well placed to score his first win for Jordy Rolfe. Beaten only 2L in 60+ company both two and three starts ago before running sixth to General Grant in a 66+ last time out, now gets CJP back in the saddle for his most suitable assignment yet. RUBY NOIR toyed with moderate rivals when stepping up to a staying journey for the first time last start in an effort which has made the Pontiff happy to venture out to Belmont for one ride on a Monday. GREAT FORTUNE looks a one-paced middle distance type who gives the impression he’ll appreciate the step up in journey. MYSTERY ISLAND has a tricky draw to overcome and looks like he’ll need every bit of the 2200m and more.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet – KAZKAZI WIN

RACE 10

ACEFIRE is brilliantly placed in this grade. Hit the line strongly when second to Cold Shizzle last start (beating home subsequent winners All Metal and Henchard), finished a half-length off Regal Magic and Cwyer (beating home Enticing) four runs ago and was beaten only two lengths in a Magic Millions 3YO Trophy last campaign. Maps to get every chance and Rawiller retains the ride. FINAL AUTHORITY looks the likely leader and made a solid return when not beaten far behind Mega Reward and (subsequent winner) Pepper Assault first-up. Can give them something to catch. EXCELTRAIN showed natural ability to win on debut over a seemingly-unsuitable 1000m and looks as though he’ll appreciate the extra 200m. Has plenty of upside. LUCY DA GREY joins Ryan Hill’s yard and is an honest type who he should have some fun with.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 10 – 3

Suggested Bet – ACEFIRE WIN

Quaddie (Race 7 – 10)

4,10,6,7,5

2,9,6,1,5,7

2,6

1,6,10

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