VIDEO: Marshall’s Mail – The BMW and Vinery Stud Stakes

Posted on March 24, 2017March 24, 2017 | Posted by Simon Marshall

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The BMW is one of the weight-for-age classics of the Sydney Autumn Carnival. Run over 2400m, this year’s addition only sees a small field of nine runners, but it’s a field that oozes class with seven of the runners having won at Group One level.

Unfortunately the rain has continued to fall in Sydney and the Rosehill track is again rated a Heavy 10 for the meeting.

There are three last start winners in the race this year: Our Ivanhowe, who is backing up from a dominant performance in last Saturday’s Ranvet Stakes, AJC Derby winner Tavago who prevailed in the Sky High Stakes over 2000m a fortnight ago, and Australian Cup winner Humidor who stormed home at Flemington on a day when leaders proved dominant. Based on recent performances all three need to be considered major chances.

I’m leaning towards Tavago after his comprehensive lead-up win. Coming off a fast tempo he stormed over the top of them and now third-up is primed to peak. He’ll again get a solid tempo, is proven over 2400 m and handles the wet conditions. In addition to the aforementioned dangers I think Jameka will prove hard to beat. She was super in the Australian Cup after working hard early and was a sitting duck at the top of the straight. If she goes in so too does Humidor who is also proven in the wet and handles the Sydney way of going. If you’re looking to add value in your multiples, throw in VRC Oaks winner Lasqueti Spirit who will run along in front and make this a good staying test.

The Vinery Stud Stakes for three-year-old fillies lacks a bit of depth this year with just one Group One winner in this year’s edition – New Zealand Guineas winner La Bella Diosa.

In my opinion, champion trainer Chris Waller has a strong hand with his two runners Foxplay and Dawn Wall. Foxplay won of the Group Two lead-up to this race over 1500m but there must be some question marks about her running a strong 2000m in the heavy going. Her stablemate Dawn Wall was very impressive when winning the Kembla Grange Classic over 1600m. Despite having some favours in the run she stormed home to make it three wins in on the trot. And now the step up to the 2000m looks to be the perfect progression.

I’m going to stick with Victorian Harlow Gold, however. She hurtled home in the Australian Guineas against the boys and was hampered at stages in the run. I don’t think she’ll have any issue with the 2000m as evidenced by the fact she ran second to Lasqueti Spirit in last year’s VRC Oaks and, if she gets through the heavy conditions, she’ll be in the finish.

To my all-important SuperPicks:

The BMW   No 7 Tavago – Profit Plus 50% (Win)

Vinery Stud Stakes  No 3 Harlow Gold – Profit Plus 50% (Place)

Good luck and, please, gamble responsibly!

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