Races

Glenn Ingram’s Saturday Caulfield Preview

Posted on | Posted by Glenn Ingram

RACE 1

BLACK RUN had the run but clearly the superior horse defeating key rivals for this event, arguably better suited on wet tracks and the forecast in his favour, ridden positive from the wide draw he gets another winning chance claiming down. TIKEMYSON is racing super for the Wilde stable, given a great ride and no excuses at Caulfield, weight relief is significant, 3kg swing, softer track conditions are against him. GENRICHERO gets all of Rose Hammond’s allowance and can go forward in running. ZIRYAB will appreciate the class drop and maps for every chance with M Zahra aboard.

Selections: 2,8,11,4

Suggested Bet: BLACK RUN win

RACE 2

ALIBABA is the pick of the unraced for Ken & Kasey Keys. He’s shown to be versatile, leading up on a wet track in early September then swooping from of the speed at Caulfield Heath on dry. That holds him in good stead to cope with race-day pressure and is drawn to be handy to the speed. SIMPLY STEFFI has impressed in all her work, a professional type and handles cut in the track on the evidence of her jumpouts. MORNING WHISPER is only neat in size, the filly by Written Tycoon looked forward and professional in her one and only jumpout and is sure to be well-educated in the Maher stable. ALMOST AN ANGEL was impressive at the trials and on debut, she beat a moderate bunch at Caulfield and will need to improve into this race with more depth.

Selections: 1,12,10,5

Suggested Bet: ALIBABA win

RACE 3

Confident SKIPPERS CANYON is the best horse, he did it the hard way fresh at 1700m with a good ride, slow out, looped the field at the right time to win. The prospect of a soft track increase his chances and gets the 2kg claim of an airborne Logan Bates and they may go quick with Chakado, Opening Address, Angland and Shiny New Deel all having forward ambitions. SIGIRYA ROCK will out be the back doing no work and could get the unimpeded run coming wide. FULL HAO steps out of mares grade, a long way back off a genuine speed and made good ground at Flemington, gap between runs is a query, if she can position up behind the speed a definite threat.

Selections: 1,10,15,3

Suggested Bet: SKIPPERS CANYON win

RACE 4

HI VAL bumped into a smart filly at Cranbourne and then capitalised on the right run to defeat another promising filly at Ballarat. She’s no star clearly but genuine and drawn for a soft run behind a good speed in a very open race. CAFFETTIERA left the gates well for her standards but had no interest in the lead at Cranbourne, chased gamely behind the winner, blinkers on and may challenge the speedy Romantic Miss as likely leader. REGENERATION is a nice horse with upside, heavily-bet in a weak maiden at Geelong and did enough without being impressive, finds a moderate race at stakes level. NAIFAH led up in the G3 Red Roses and under pressure quickly, back around a bend helps.

Selections: 7,6,2,5

Suggested Bet: HI VAL 1 x 3

RACE 5

DIFFERENT GRAVY was exactly that winning at Flemington on Cup day and likely to get similar conditions with the early forecast. A target race against his own age, he’s drawn to be closer in the run and will need to be with a lack of speed engaged, again the horse to beat. ZA ZA BEST creates some interest winning a low maiden race for a hot stable/jockey combination, proven at the 2000m already and may get a cheap lead. CALL DA VINCI will have market support coming back from the higher level, will need to jump better than he did last start or risk getting buried down low. KALEO has some upside and winning claims stepping up to 2000m.

Selections: 1,7,3,2

Suggested Bet: DIFFERENT GRAVY win

RACE 6

JENNI GONE BONKERS is an exciting Maurice filly with Ciaron Maher and had wet conditions to suit at Pakenham dominating off a strong tempo. She ticks all the boxes and appears another of many recent examples of fillies making the successful leap into stakes grade. LYRICS ‘N’ SONG is regally-bred and was good on debut before a freshen and punted at Cranbourne sitting on-speed with blinkers on and sprinted quickly, she too can measure up. KUJENGA has a poor win strike rate, will have friends as a performer at this level already and very good in the G3 Thoroughbred Club Stakes last start. RUSKA ROMA next best.

Selections: 2,8,1,5

Suggested Bet: JENNI GONE BONKERS win

RACE 7

Soft tempo makes this an intriguing race with key chances needing the pace on. PRECIOUS CHARM may take it up, loved her win fresh on heavy at 1200 then stuck on well after being out-sprinted at the mile in G3 company. Takes on the boys, ridden with intent is her best chance at pinching this and the weather forecast helps.  POISON CHALICE is ready to peak, interesting start to his prep taken across the border for the Gawler Cup and plain, improved between runs in the Chester Manifold and rising to 1800m now this is his sweet spot. KINGSWOOD was given a peach and John Allen didn’t miss him to defeat the heavily-backed Saint George on cup day, another winnable race, would prefer it dry. DETONATOR JACK leaves Flemington which is a knock and needs speed but also a key winning chance.

Selections: 9,5,1,3

Suggested Bet: PRECIOUS CHARM 1 x 4

RACE 8

Two key winning chances come through the same race. Like the placement of ALALCANCE second-up for this, set a brutal task in the conditions when slow out and ridden up to hold a midfield spot and tried hard in the Matriarch, the race getting away from her at the 600m mark. Expect they take it up rising to 2400m and sure to be improved for the run. SHE’S A HUSTLER was game in defeat beaten by an absolute wetty at Flemington in Sunset Park who skipped through the conditions. Racing in super form, provided she took no harm from that effort she’s competitive again. BERKSHIRE BREEZE is going ok, freshened and capable if it’s run as a true staying test. LIGHT INFANTRY drops back to G2 level, racing below his best in recent efforts.

Selections: 13,14,10,1

Suggested Bet: ALALCANCE win

RACE 9

PRAIRIE FLOWER has raced below her best this prep but can improve given a trial and a freshen since her outing on Cup day she returns back around a bend at 1100m at Caulfield where she’s put in strong performances at higher levels and can swoop home to fight out the finish off an expected strong tempo. BOSTON ROCKS received a great ride and maps to get a similar run in as he did winning a similar race defeating Hedged, prefers it dry, he’s on weather watch. AVIATRESS took her medicine from a wide gate when strongly-supported here last start and went down narrowly, again a sticky draw. BELLATRIX STAR could blow this field away running to her best, fresh off 53 weeks, two trials, need a big mounting yard push.

Selections: 8,6,5,1

Suggested Bet: PRAIRIE FLOWER 1 x 3

RACE 10

A minefield in the last. PERSIAN SPIRIT was enormous with a career-best winning at Flemington over the carnival, likely to get softer track conditions which he appreciates and given a soft trial win between runs, a leading chance in a wide open affair at listed level. BIG SWINGER had strong market support at Flemington fresh after a number of jumpouts and was solid, no match for 1st & 2nd. Back around a bend with natural improvement should strip fitter, 1400m suits. CRAIG gets Craig who has jumped off Big Swinger, first-up for a year, Jett Stanley gave him a solid test winning a recent Cranbourne jumpout, need a push in the yard, he is generally a good fresh horse and can sprint quickly at 1400m. HERE TO SHOCK is not going well enough at present, worth respecting on class alone.

Selections: 13,14,11,1

Suggested Bet: PERSIAN SPIRIT each way

NEXT BEST: R1#2 BLACK RUN

ROUGHIE: R7#9 PRECIOUS CHARM

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