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Digby’s AFL Round 23 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Adelaide v West Coast

Friday, Adelaide Oval 6.10pm

West Coast’s hit-and-miss season was brought in to sharp focus earlier this season when Adelaide stormed over the top of them in the final quarter at Domain Stadium in round 12. It would be the last game Nic Naitanui played before he headed for Achilles surgery. As we all know, Naitanui will be absent for the remainder of 2016 due to a knee injury, with Scott Lycett’s ability to step up in his absence likely to dictate the Eagles’ fortunes.

He has filled the role previously, but will know well and truly that he is in a contest against Sam Jacobs and the classy Crows outfit. The Eagles produced their best football of the season against Hawthorn, with the midfield overwhelming the Hawks. It will need to step up again opposed to the Crows’ running machine, which will be without the suspended Rory Sloane. But halting the dominance of the hosts’ forward line is a massive ask, especially at Adelaide Oval.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 19 points.

1st goal scorer: Josh Jenkins

Geelong v Melbourne

Saturday, Simonds Stadium 11.45am

Melbourne midfielder Dom Tyson declared earlier this week that the Demons would throw the kitchen sink at Geelong in a bid to finish the season off strongly. Talk about too little too late. In the frame to snare a finals berth, Melbourne were ordinary from the outset opposed to Carlton, dashing their September dreams.

Later on the same day, Geelong toyed with Brisbane in a manner most expected. Their midfield was dominant and the forward line functioned well, with Steven Motlop’s five-goal display highly encouraging. Geelong did succumb to Melbourne in the corresponding match last year, but with a top-two spot still attainable, expect the Cats to be alert.

VERDICT: Geelong by 29 points.

1st goal scorer: Tom Hawkins

Essendon v Carlton

Saturday, MCG 12.10pm

John Worsfold can be very proud of what he has achieved in 2016. That’s not to say he won’t be happy that the tumultuous season will be over after this match. The Bombers have been competitive more often than not despite a lack of talent and would love nothing more to get one up on their bitter rivals.

Likewise, the Blues would relish being the club that ensured Essendon finished with the wooden spoon. That is likely to occur even if Essendon win, but on what occurred last Sunday at the MCG — a motivated Carlton side led by midfield pair Patrick Cripps and Bryce Gibbs — it would be a shock if Brendon Bolton’s debut season at the helm didn’t finish on a fitting note.

VERDICT: Carlton by 30 points.

1st goal scorer: Levi Casboult

Sydney v Richmond

Saturday, SCG 2.35pm

Sydney have done a mighty job to find the top of the ladder entering the final week of the season. They would love a soft kill to remain there, but have to face up to bogy side Richmond, who have beaten them in the past three meetings. And complicating John Longmire’s desire to deliver the club only its third minor premiership is a hip injury to spearhead Lance Franklin.

However, the Swans have defended stoutly for the bulk of 2016 and Richmond’s issues in front of goal have been laid bare for effectively the same period. If Sydney’s midfield, bolstered by the return of Kieren Jack, is as efficient as we have come to expect, the Tigers’ goal kickers will face precious few chances to boot a winning total.

VERDICT: Sydney by 29 points.

1st goal scorer: Isaac Heeney

Gold Coast v Port Adelaide

Saturday, Metricon Stadium 5.25pm

Yes, it is round 23 and Gold Coast’s finals fortunes were dashed well before the midway point of the season, but this is an important game for Rodney Eade’s men. They have turned in back-to-back shockers against Essendon and Collingwood and will be keen to see much of the headway made after the bye is not frittered away.

As for Port Adelaide, one wonders how much spirit they have left. Time will tell whether their brave performance opposed to Adelaide last Saturday night was their grand final. Certainly a repeat of that effort would be enough here. Provided Power captain Travis Boak and his senior teammates set the right standard early, the visitors should be able to enjoy their Saturday night on the Glitter Strip.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 20 points.

1st goal scorer: Tom Lynch

North Melbourne v GWS

Saturday, Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

The bombshell delivered by North Melbourne on Wednesday stunned just about everyone. The decision to retire Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Nick Dal Santo and Michael Firrito by not offering them one-year deals into 2017 was made public to ensure all Kangaroos fans can celebrate their careers in is potentially the last game they will play in Victoria.

It is probably the last thing Greater Western Sydney needed as they endeavour to snare a crucial win and perhaps climb inside the top four. But Leon Cameron will stress to his players, particularly the midfield, that if they display the work rate and efficiency on show last weekend against Fremantle, that should be enough. The tall timber of Jeremy Cameron, Jonathon Patton and Rory Lobb also looms as a major headache for North.

VERDICT: GWS by 14 points.

1st goal scorer: Rory Lobb

St Kilda v Brisbane

Sunday, Etihad Stadium 11.10am

A season that never took flight will come to an end for Brisbane when the final siren sounds, most likely consigning them to a 19th defeat for the year. And sadly for Justin Leppitsch, it appears his time as coach of the Lions is also up, barring a seismic shift from the board.

And if last weekend is any guide, don’t expect St Kilda to show any mercy. Within their rights to be a little sluggish against Richmond a week after having their finals hopes extinguished by Sydney, the Saints never gave the Tigers a look in. They held sway through the midfield and their defensive structure was outstanding. This match represents an opportunity for their forwards to shine. Expect them to do just that.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 67 points.

1st goal scorer: Josh Bruce

Hawthorn v Collingwood

Sunday, MCG 1.20pm

In a round featuring many ho-hum matches, this is the exception. Hawthorn enter the contest having lost two of their past three games and facing the prospect of sliding from first to outside the top four and an elimination final in the opening week of the post-season. The Hawks of old would respond big time. Whether Alastair Clarkson’s men still have their mojo will be revealed.

Aiding their desire to snare the points and a double chance is the unavailability of Darcy Moore (hamstring). The Magpies’ forward line has a different feel about it when Moore is running and leaping at the football. Travis Cloke plays in his absence, but the organised Hawthorn defence, even without Ben Stratton, will make it hard for Collingwood to impact the scoreboard. The premiers should have no such issue in that department.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 34 points.

1st goal scorer: Jack Gunston

Fremantle v Western Bulldogs

Sunday, Domain Stadium 2.40pm

One can only hope the Fremantle faithful turn up in their thousands to witness Matthew Pavlich, the club’s greatest ever player, strut his stuff for the final time. And provided they do, here’s hoping that Ross Lyon and his players do the same given their putrid efforts in recognising the milestones of Pavlich (350 games) and captain David Mundy (250 games) in the past month.

Nobody expects the Dockers to win, but a four-quarter crack would be nice. There is never any questions asked about the intent of the Western Bulldogs, who continue to overcome adversity and will have to do so again here minus stand-in captain Easton Wood (ankle). The Bulldogs are ferocious around the contest, defend well, make smart decisions with ball in hand and execute with high efficiency. Basically, they are everything the Dockers aren’t.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 45 points.

1st goal scorer: Matthew Pavlich

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