Races

Scott Embry’s Thursday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

Race 1

INCREDIBLE MR FOX was really hard to settle in the early and middle stages last week. So like that A) he’s off 7 days; and B) they’ve taken the visors off him. Looks like there’s a good amount of speed drawn around him in various parts of the line and he can either kick through underneath them or take the trail in the box seat. Open and even maiden with plenty of chances. THAT IS JUSTICE will no doubt come out running on debut. It’s hard to get a strong gauge on these horses who only have 400m jump outs but if there’s a stable that can do it, it’s Dion Luciani. FAIR MACHINO looks speedy and did keep fighting on when tested in the 1000m trial. KEPPEL GATE is a shaky favourite. Drawn horribly and likes to duck inwards when asked for an effort.

Numbers: 6 – 12 – 11 – 10

Suggested Bet – INCREDIBLE MR FOX EACHWAY

Race 2

TALK TOO MUCH rightfully scratched from Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup Day meeting to start here. Looked really good leading and winning his recent trial, and while I’m always a bit wary of the 4yo and up trials because they can contain a few battlers he was strong from start to finish and looked stylish stretching out over the concluding stages. The way Belmont has been playing – leading = winning and he’ll be right up over the speed throughout at an eachway price. MAKE ME TURN is yet another Mitchell Pateman runner with big claims. Was put under the stick, but the longer the trial went the stronger she was. Stable going at 30% last 90 days – getting ridiculous. CAPALL GASTA drops out of a Belgravia when only beaten 2.8L by Beatty, Achy Breaky and Godspeed and prior to that the winner producing Blue Destiny race. MR KAPLAN always goes around short? Not convinced.

Numbers: 2 – 15 – 6 – 10

Suggested Bet – TALK TOO MUCH EACHWAY

Race 3

SHENTON ROAD trialled super at Belmont behind Queen Diva before stepping out first-up at Ascot when third to Hamadryad and subsequent winner Bourbonontherocks. She showed as a 2 year old when placing at 1400m to Thani Talk that there’s some ability there and this race looks wide open. JUST KICK brings massive intrigue. 9 start maiden but has raced in 1x Group One, 1x Group 2, 2x Group 3s, 2x Listed Races and an open 3 year old Saturday at Caulfield (when third). Trialled well and with those form lines it’s hard to see a world in which she isn’t hammered in betting? RAKITIN was going from 1000 to 1400m first-up to second-up and led for a good portion of the race, setting a strong tempo throughout. Will need to burn the candle at both ends again but if he can get across, he’ll run another cheeky race. VINNY NAY ran all the best sectionals first-up but again draws in the river?

Numbers: 15 – 3 – 9 – 7

Suggested Bet – SHENTON ROAD EACHWAY

Race 4

NICCIMOTA is really well placed into a C5 by Jim Taylor. Since winning a Graduation 1000 at Belmont in August (off an 84 day freshen) she has finished 1L off Dawn Dancer and Eternal Wine in a 66+, 1.5L off Pond Master, Pin Deep and Swingman in a 72+ (after being uncharacteristically slow away) and then half a length off Pingers in a 66+. Back in grade, great use of the Sharni Webster claim and has won previously under 58kg. Love to see her jump and cross them. KINGS DRAMA and CANNYKEV both come through the same race behind Keep Reading, a 66+ at Ascot and are also both really well placed. Not much between them. RAW UMBER is a huge unknown now after setting a record for betting drifts ($3.4 to $23) and being beaten 11.5L.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet – NICCIMOTA WIN

Race 5

CAPABLE ANGEL picks herself here. Two starts back she won a 54+ 2100 at Belmont (track, distance, grade) and won by an extending 3L margin. She then headed into a 60+ Graduation at Ascot and wasn’t disgraced beaten 2.4L behind I Love Ya Money, Dark Looks and Dandy’s Gem. She’s on the 5 day back-up and she’s back into a 54+. Only a 2kg spread in the weights (before claims) and looks a great race for her. POINT OF LUCK gets 2kg on her for a 3.7L margin when they met last start. Smaller field helps her cause. TOKYO FIRE gets her regular senior rider back aboard. QUEEN NARDI does actually have a 54+ 2200m grass placing to her name if you go back far enough.

Numbers: 2 – 9 – 10 – 3

Suggested Bet – CAPABLE ANGEL WIN

Race 6 (Best Bet)

CABLE ROCK is flying this preparation. He has finished in the money at his last five outings, including an all the way win at Pinjarra in a C1 and a strong win from the breeze here at Belmont in a C3 1300 (same conditions). Since that win he has split Streak of God and Streamlined in a Grad 1400 and most recently finished third to Delzee and subsequent winner Linchpin in a 0MWLY. Back in grade, back to Belmont and if it’s another leader’s paradise he has to be the one to beat. I’M ODETTE is lightly raced, has a strong SP profile and has a decent turn of acceleration when saved up for one last run. VON ROMMEL found the line strongly on debut and the runner-up ran well at Ascot on Tuesday. FORGOTTEN SON was 999 days between outings and solid behind Wolf Whistle Zel. Draw/map hurts under 60kg.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet – CABLE ROCK EACHWAY

Race 7

ENCROACHING was a different horse with the fence to follow. Thought his trials and his first-up run were moderate, but given he’s drawn barrier 1, happy to keep following him in races where he can lead hard up against the fence. TEX N CEE was ridden to win that race last start. He’s clearly going to be a better chaser but when it became obvious that you had to be in the first two to win, they rode him forward outside his comfort zone. DUCHESS OF DANCE was sent out at over 100-1 on debut but won like a filly with a future. Powered away late and proved the market very wrong. PROPERATA led in his barrier trial and then led in his return to racing off a 50 day freshen. He’s versatile so can be ridden to track conditions.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 9 – 2

Suggested Bet – ENCROACHING WIN

Quaddie (Race 4 – 7)

1,2,3,5,7

2

2,3

2,3,4,5,9




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