Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1

We race at Rosehill in Sydney on Saturday. Track around the good/soft range to kick off with the chance of a shower/storm later in the day, hopefully much later! We get the meeting underway with a Highway over 1200m. Last start placegetter (4) BRAVE XENA hit the line strongly once into the clear at Hawkesbury, she also found the line well fresh & draws well for Mollie Fitzgerald who takes 2kg off. Logical threat must be the unbeaten (3) MAINSTAY who to date has won over short trips, by The Autumn Sun you’d have to think he’ll lap up 1200m, his closing sectionals at all 3 wins suggest he definitely will. Must include (5) LE CHOCOLAT, out of the most prolific winning Highway stable we have, phenomenal strike rate.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 5 – 18

Suggested Bet: BRAVE XENA EACH-WAY.

Race 2

Very open looking Midway where I’ll stick with (5) MAIDOFF who finished out of the placings at this level last start however did sit wide throughout. That won’t be the case today from a favourable draw & his prior form was winning form. Should (2) HELLOVA NATURE produce his best he’ll prove very hard to hold out, unfortunately his last couple haven’t been up to standard, go back further & you’ll see what he is capable of. (12) LAWLESS LUCY looks to have the ability however not the gate, may need luck.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 12 – 4

Suggested Bet: Exotics best.

Race 3

2400m affair where the Waterhouse/Bott yard hold the key with a couple of very strong chances in (3) SAVVY SPY & (5) CRITERIA. They did meet at Warwick Farm last start with the former finishing too well running clear of the latter opening up a 1.4 length margin on the line. There’s a weight swing of 2.5kg in (5) CRITERIA’s favour however the way his stablemate attacked the line last time I’m not convinced that’s enough. (1) MEDATSU back in grade, well up in the weights though & (2) SAVISANTA best of the rest.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet: SAVVY SPY TO WIN.

Race 4 (Best Bet)

Looks the right race for (6) DONATELLO to return to the winner’s circle. Yes, he gets back in his races & needs things to pan out however very strong to the line at Randwick last Saturday he’s going to lap up the rise to 1800m a distance he did win over before signing off last campaign. (2) SAMARELLE is flying this prep running a big race fresh before winning her past couple, she’s now ticked the distance box winning last start & has been kept on the fresh side which won’t harm, Anna Roper offsets some of the weight rise which is a help. (8) SHE MOVES TOO was never a chance last week, prior run suggested a win is close, include in everything.

Numbers: 6 – 2 – 8 – 4

Suggested Bet: DONATELLO TO WIN.

Race 5

Victorian raider (1) CASHOUT the runner to beat here. Rolls forward in a race which doesn’t look to have a great deal of early pace & he’s been very strong/solid on speed all prep sitting in the first couple winning 3 of 4 placed second the other. Won 4 of 5 over the trip also, ticks a lot of boxes. (3) WOOTTON LASS ran well after messing up the start fresh, completely outclassed last week can figure whilst (4) BELLA KHADIJAH & (9) SHOTGUN BELLA both go around second up off solid first up performances.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 4 – 9

Suggested Bet: CASHOUT TO WIN.

Race 6

The million-dollar Golden Gift for the 2yo’s with plenty going around on debut, market moves will be all important. I’ve been quite taken by the lead-up trials of (12) SHARJAWIYAH who raced away to win at her first appearance before tucked away with little room second hit out making nice ground when clear & under no urgings whatsoever. (9) EXO VELOCITY appreciated the solid up-front speed on debut overhauling the leaders, she needs further now & gets that here rising 100m. (5) PROVERB had trialled well before running last down the Flemington straight on debut when well supported (favourite). Back to the trials has won a recent heat, must give him another chance.

Numbers: 12 – 9 – 5 – 14

Suggested Bet: SHARJAWIYAH EACH-WAY.

Race 7

The Group 2 Hot Danish for the fillies & mares is up next. How do they beat (1) LAZZURA who is just so well placed under the conditions of the race. She should be giving away plenty of weight however gives none to any runner & holds the best form lines also. Getting a decent price is the concern. Don’t be surprised to see (4) ARABIAN ROSE run a race here, very good first up she then just couldn’t get a crack at them at Randwick, she has a big finish on her. (8) CHAINS OF LOVE is well up to the task, promising with a very good record only improving with each run.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 8 – 10

Suggested Bet: LAZZURA TO WIN/box up 3,4,8 & 10 to run the exotics.

Race 8 (Best Bet)

The 2 million dollar Five Diamonds has brought together a very competitive looking line up & there’s a few who might struggle to run the 1800m trip out strongly, not many of the main contenders have been out to the trip. I’ll lean to (9) PLYMOUTH on an each-way basis, strong to the line in the Group 1 Epsom before solid in the Group 2 Craven Plate, he strikes clearly inferior opposition & has won up to 2100m. Can find spots for (1) LINEBACKER, (8) DECLICHY BOULEVARD & (11) WELCOMETOTHESHOW who were all good in the Prelude to this race however 1800m? The Kiwi raider (2) TUXEDO not without a chance also.

Numbers: 9 – 8 – 11 – 2

Suggested Bet: PLYMOUTH EACH-WAY – The 2-million-dollar Five Diamonds sees the first 5 in the market all untried at 1800m! An amazing stat, not the case with this Team Hayes trained galloper who is in good form & a winner right up to 2100m. Great value!

Race 9

Limited chances here where I’ll lean to (2) MERCY ME who was a scratching from Randwick last Saturday, the additional week (not aware of any injury concerns) off shouldn’t provide any issues as she’s generally quite effective when on the fresh side. (9) AGATHA is quite consistent, draws the pole gate & likely would have finished closer last start if not for being held up, that’s twice this prep she been out of luck at a crucial stage in the race. (11) SHOW BUSINESS a similar hard luck story first when she resumed at Warwick Farm recently.

Numbers: 2 – 9 – 11 – 6

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 10

I’m pleased to see (4) NITRO hasn’t gone up favourite in early markets as he’s a complete menace to punters whilst being a pin up horse for the bookies having started favourite more often than not yet winning only once which was on debut in a maiden by a very small margin! He’s a perennial eyecatcher running on from the back, maybe he wins today, I can assure you if he does it will be without me. Liked the return run of (9) HORSESHOE HILL in a recent Warwick Farm midweeker, closed off solidly & will appreciate getting out over further today, up in class, down in weight. (1) ESMAHLI brings good southern form, (2) ANNIE’S ROSE better suited back to this level, just found the Group 3 too tough last time out although far from disgraced.

Numbers: 9 – 1 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet: HORSESHOE HILL TO WIN




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