Digby’s AFL Round 15 Preview
West Coast v Essendon
Thursday, Domain Stadium 6.10pm
The football world has been waiting for West Coast to perform at a level they showed consistently en route to last year’s grand final. With the benefit of a bye and a chance to regroup, this match represents the first opportunity for Adam Simpson’s men to show they have the mettle to be active deep into a finals campaign. Touching up the Bombers won’t convince the doubters the Eagles have turned the corner, but it will boost the players’ confidence and everyone knows what a confident West Coast side is capable of.
Scott Lycett returns after a one-game suspension for a drinking session and his availability will help the Eagles in their bid to dominate Essendon through the midfield with the likes of Matt Priddis, Luke Shuey, Andrew Gaff, Lewis Jetta, Chris Masten and Elliot Yeo. And if they are holding sway, expect Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and Mark LeCras to be major factors. Essendon were better in their most recent game against Greater Western Sydney, but the type of ball movement they enjoyed in that match is harder to replicate in Perth against the Eagles.
VERDICT: West Coast by 70 points.
1st goal scorer: Josh Kennedy
Port Adelaide v Richmond
Friday, Adelaide Oval 5.50pm
These two clubs had designs on finals at the start of the year and both of their claims were justified. Port Adelaide were expected to bounce back after a dreadful 2015 and Richmond looked well placed, having taken part in a third successive September campaign. Barring a minor miracle, the losers of this game will be spectators when the post-season begins. Given Port beat Richmond earlier in the season at the MCG and are now at home after a week’s bye, trouble looms for the Tigers.
If Richmond are to cause an upset, it will be on the back of their prolific midfield, notably Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin, Brett Deledio, Brandon Ellis and Shaun Grigg. Martin is enjoying a career-best season and has been spoken about glowingly by most in the football world all season. But Port are also very capable through the midfield when on song and even though No.1 ruckman Matthew Lobbe and his back-up Dougal Howard are sidelined with knee injuries, Travis Boak, Ollie Wines, Robbie Gray, Brad Ebert and co. will be difficult to quell.
VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 20 points.
1st goal scorer: Chad Wingard
Gold Coast v St Kilda
Saturday, Metricon Stadium 11.40am
Gold Coast’s gradual improvement continued last weekend when they stretched the necks of Hawthorn in Launceston. It was another competitive performance from Rodney Eade’s side which is at the other end of the funk that saw it suffer some heavy losses earlier in the year when a rash of injuries struck key players. But for all the overdue positivity, the Suns are still searching for their first win since round three and confront a St Kilda side full of confidence.
The Saints threw their hat into the finals mix with a stirring win against Geelong last Saturday night. Their youngsters, chiefly Seb Ross, were full of bravado and efficiency, while the cool heads of Jack Steven and Nick Riewoldt were superb. The Saints spread their goal-kicking load against the Cats, whereas the Suns remain very reliant on Tom Lynch. With the forecast of fine weather and captain Gary Ablett in excellent form, it wouldn’t surprise if Lynch and the Suns have a good reason to smile at the end of the game.
VERDICT: Gold Coast by 11 points.
1st goal scorer: Tom Lynch
Sydney v Western Bulldogs
Saturday, SCG 2.35pm
Any doubts about the Western Bulldogs’ legitimacy under Luke Beveridge 12 months ago were dispelled in the corresponding fixture when they handled wet conditions better than the hosts to record a dramatic four-point victory. That display and the progress made by the Bulldogs since will ensure the Swans are on red alert for this game as both sides jostle for a double chance in a congested top eight.
The Swans and Bulldogs will be fresh after having a bye last weekend, raising the prospect of a brutal midfield battle between Josh Kennedy, Kieren Jack, Dan Hannebery, Luke Parker, Tom Mitchell and Zak Jones against Marcus Bontempelli, Lachie Hunter, Jack Macrae, Tom Liberatore, Caleb Daniel and Mitch Wallis. Both sides tackle especially well, meaning time and space will be at premium on the saucer-shaped SCG. If that is the case, so too might be the goals. Enter Lance Franklin.
VERDICT: Sydney by 20 points.
1st goal scorer: Isaac Heeney
Carlton v Collingwood
Saturday, MCG 5.25pm
At stages in 2016, Collingwood have proven capable. Very capable. It was the case when they stunned Geelong earlier in the season and again last Friday night opposed to Fremantle when their midfield, led by Adam Treloar, Scott Pendlebury and Jack Crisp, got hold of the Dockers early. With captain Marc Murphy still missing because of an ankle injury, Blues coach Brendon Bolton will know his side can ill afford to surrender control in the most important area of the ground.
That is a genuine concern. Carlton aren’t an efficient centre clearance or a contested possession outfit, but are organised and structured thanks to the influence of Bolton. Kicking goals has been an issue for them at various stages also and the presence of an in-form Ben Reid in the Collingwood defence will provide a stumbling block. But as much as Collingwood dominated Fremantle through the midfield, they didn’t hammer home their advantage on the scoreboard. In what could well be a dour battle, the Blues’ defensive prowess might be the difference.
VERDICT: Carlton by 16 points.
1st goal scorer: Scott Pendlebury
Melbourne v Adelaide
Sunday, MCG 1.20pm
Viewed as vulnerable in the wake of Patrick Dangerfield’s defection to Geelong, Adelaide continue to perform at a high standard and be talked about as top-four contenders. Back-to-back wins over double-chance rivals West Coast and North Melbourne have elevated Don Pyke’s team to sixth and it should be nestled comfortably in fifth at worst with another win here against an improving, but second-tier Melbourne.
The Crows managed just 12 goals from 40 scoring shots against the Kangaroos, but it’s safe to say if the likes of Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins, Tom Lynch, Eddie Betts and Charlie Cameron get as many looks as they did last Thursday week, they will apply considerable scoreboard pressure. The Demons will appreciate better conditions than they experienced against Sydney a fortnight ago, but it’s difficult to see, outside of Jesse Hogan, where their goals will come from against Adelaide’s organised defensive approach.
VERDICT: Adelaide by 32 points.
1st goal scorer: Josh Jenkins
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