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Digby’s AFL Preview – Round 5

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Friday, 21 April

Port Adelaide v Carlton, Adelaide Oval 5.50pm

Port Adelaide haven’t done a lot wrong this season, yet find themselves squared away at 2-2 and needing to arrest a mini slide. Expect it to happen, especially if they are able to produce the standard of football that has required both Adelaide and Greater Western Sydney to slip themselves to beat the Power in the past fortnight.

Carlton had a gilt-edged opportunity to defeat Gold Coast last Saturday night, but were blitzed after half-time. Their lack of efficiency in attack and inability to match the Suns around the contest proved costly. It was no surprise that Carlton’s issues at the coalface came about with Patrick Cripps battling to have his usual impact because of soreness.

The young gun is tipped to play in this match, but with a Port on-ball division led by Travis Boak, Ollie Wines, Brad Ebert, and Robbie Gray, he is going to need serious support from Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs. The Power’s prospects will also be assisted by the return from suspension of athletic ruckman Paddy Ryder.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 34 points.

Saturday, 22 April

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane, Etihad Stadium 11.45am

The Western Bulldogs dodged a bullet against North Melbourne on Good Friday and will be without experienced forwards Travis Cloke and Stewart Crameri for this assignment against Brisbane, which doubles as captain Bob Murphy’s 300th game.

The Bulldogs are not the same ferocious outfit that suffocated its rivals during a golden September-October last year, but have a quality young list, especially through the midfield, that should overwhelm the Lions. Dayne Beams and Tom Rockliff are in excellent form for Brisbane but don’t have the support cast the Bulldogs possess in and around the centre square.

Brisbane were opened up by Richmond at the Gabba, with their execution by foot really poor. If the Bulldogs bring the right attitude early and get the game on their terms, this could open up in the second half and prove a procession, enabling Luke Beveridge’s men to improve to 4-1.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 49 points.

Gold Coast v Adelaide, Metricon Stadium 2.35pm

You could probably argue that there isn’t a good time to front up to Adelaide when they are in this rich vein of form. With that in mind, spare a thought for Suns coach Rodney Eade at the prospect of taking on the high-octane Crows without his premier two defenders Steven May (hamstring) and Rory Thompson (quad).

And if you think Adelaide aren’t as potent minus Josh Jenkins (fractured ribs) and Mitch McGovern (hamstring), watch a replay of last Saturday night’s rout against Essendon. The Crows booted 24 goals in a 65-point win, with Eddie Betts and Taylor Walker contributing 11 goals between them.

Adelaide’s midfield, headed up by Rory Sloane but featuring a swag of in-form teammates, is winning a heap of contested football and then hurting its rivals on the spread. The ability of Rory Laird to set up so many attacking moves off half-back is also an area Eade needs to address. The Suns like to freewheel and can score heavily, thanks in no small part to Tom Lynch, Brandon Matera and Gary Ablett. But the Crows are a different proposition to Hawthorn and Carlton.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 32 points.

Sydney v GWS, SCG 5.25pm

The cavalry is coming for Sydney. It is music to the ears of Swans fans, but whether the injection of quality talent is enough to stop last year’s grand finalists sliding to 0-5 remains to be seen. In saying that, Greater Western Sydney are also a fair way off their best and missing several names who would be in their best 10-12 players.

The Giants struggled to shake Port Adelaide for three quarters, but their final 30 minutes in Canberra was outstanding. It served to illustrate why they were installed as premiership favourites heading into the season, with the running power of Josh Kelly, Dylan Shiel, Tom Scully and Callan Ward, and the power of forward Jonathon Patton, significant.

Sydney closed to within a kick against West Coast, but couldn’t get the job done. The lack of a four-quarter effort is hurting the young Swans, as is their dearth of goal-scoring options. Conversely, the Giants boast imposing pair Patton and Jeremy Cameron, not to mention reigning best and fairest Toby Greene. In what promises to be a physical stoush, the Giants’ depth of contributors loom as the difference.

VERDICT: GWS by 20 points.

Fremantle v North Melbourne, Domain Stadium 5.40pm

The emotions experienced by these teams at the final siren of their round-four games couldn’t have been more contrasting. North Melbourne were gutted after losing by less than a kick to the Western Bulldogs, having led by 29 points early in the third term. Fremantle couldn’t have been more excited after rallying from 27 points in arrears to topple Melbourne at the MCG.

The victory by the Dockers followed their round-three upset of the Bulldogs and now presents them with the perfect opportunity to chalk up a third successive win. Indeed, if Nat Fyfe, David Mundy, Lachie Neale and the Hill brothers, Bradley and Stephen, are able to replicate the form they have produced in the past fortnight, Ross Lyon’s side is going to be awfully hard to stop.

North Melbourne will encounter a Dockers team that gives the opposition a chance by virtue of its evolution, but the deficiencies in Brad Scott’s unit mean the 0-4 Kangaroos are unlikely to capitalise on those chances. The inability of North to stop run-ons in the course of a match is proving more than troublesome. The round-six western derby is on the verge of being really mouthwatering.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 21 points.

Sunday, 23 April

St Kilda v Geelong, Etihad Stadium 1.20pm

Geelong threatened to blow apart Hawthorn in the first half on Easter Monday, only to be thwarted by poor goal kicking. Once the radar was fixed up, the Cats booted 15.2 in the final two quarters to career away to an 86-point win that elevated them to the top of the ladder.

The 4-0 start and lofty standing has been a big tick to coach Chris Scott and his players. But they are about to receive the stiffest test of their campaign. St Kilda haven’t been at their best in the first month, but wins over Brisbane and Collingwood have them at 2-2 and their pressure against the Magpies was ultra-impressive. It is an approach St Kilda will need to replicate, knowing that halting the Cats’ ball movement is vital.

The form of Nick Riewoldt since returning from a knee injury has been remarkable and the ongoing development of Seb Ross makes the Saints a more difficult proposition. There is no denying the Saints aren’t as appealing aesthetically as Geelong, but they are mighty effective inside Etihad Stadium. It wouldn’t be a shock if they pinched the points, but tipping against an unbeaten side is fraught with danger.

VERDICT: Geelong by 7 points.

Hawthorn v West Coast, Domain Stadium 2.40pm

No more excuses. No more waiting. The time has come for West Coast to stand up and find a way to win at the MCG. Period. Hawthorn’s woes and the commentary surrounding their slide has only served to increase the interest in this encounter. Unfortunately for the Eagles, their recent woes at the home of football also make for interesting debate.

The Hawks are expected to be bolstered by both Jaeger O’Meara and Ty Vickery after they missed the Easter Monday massacre, but their returns won’t be enough. Hawthorn have to find a way to rediscover their defensive structure and intensity and tighten up their ball use. If they don’t, they will be exposed.

As for the Eagles, they need to make a stand early and then hold on. They cannot afford to let the Hawks hang in the contest. That means taking chances when they present. They didn’t do that against Richmond and paid a high price. Sam Mitchell should play and if he can have an influence against his old club, then the Eagles will be well on their way.

VERDICT: West Coast by 11 points.

Monday, 24 April

Richmond v Melbourne, MCG 5.25pm

Of the nine games this weekend, none throws up more questions than this one. Are Richmond a legitimate 4-0 side? Will they play finals? Are Melbourne reverting to type or just a club that doesn’t ask enough of itself? You could mount an argument either way for all of the above, but one thing that isn’t in dispute is the importance of this contest.

Having coughed up two winnable games to fall to 2-2, Melbourne’s designs on a top-eight berth hang in the balance. The return from a two-match suspension of Jesse Hogan can’t come quick enough, as does the opportunity for the Demons to show they can handle the heat after wilting in the face of Fremantle’s pressure.

Richmond weren’t spectacular opposed to Brisbane last Sunday, but the even nature of the display pleased coach Damien Hardwick. Trent Cotchin and Dion Prestia continue to set an excellent example, while Jack Riewoldt found some joy on the scoreboard. Dustin Martin is battling groin soreness, which might explain his quiet game against the Lions. Having claimed that tipping against a 4-0 side is fraught with danger, maybe I need my head read.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 10 points.

Tuesday, 25 April

Essendon v Collingwood, MCG 1.20pm

Collingwood have made a great deal this week about the likelihood of Daniel Wells being poised to make his Magpies debut. Wouldn’t it have been nice if Wells had turned up to his new club in peak condition. For his and the Magpies’ sake, he needs to have an immediate impact.

An intangible is missing at Collingwood. A week after a deserved win over Sydney at the SCG, the Magpies were outworked and shot themselves in the foot with horrible skills and decision making in losing to St Kilda. Essendon were also exposed last weekend, but Adelaide at Adelaide Oval can do unspeakable things to quality sides.

The Bombers, so lively for the first fortnight, have looked sluggish in their defeats to Carlton and the Crows. One would expect the occasion of this encounter will surely rid the players of any lethargy. Both sides possess solid running divisions, but have battled to convert opportunities in front of goal. The fact that some rain has been forecast, perhaps Essendon’s experience in the conditions a fortnight ago against Carlton will prove an advantage.

VERDICT: Essendon by 18 points.

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