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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 24

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Melbourne v Collingwood, MCG, 5.40pm

If Simon Goodwin wanted to know what it looked like when he removed the shackles from his players, the round-23 display against Gold Coast was a great indicator.

The Suns aren’t a defensive juggernaut, but Melbourne’s potency forward of midfield was evident in perfect conditions. This challenge against Collingwood is a stark contrast admittedly, but one should never lose sight of the importance of scoreboard pressure.

The Magpies will be without Dan McStay, eroding some of their own attacking firepower, but still boast a gamebreaker of the highest calibre … Nick Daicos.

VERDICT: Collingwood to win

SATURDAY

Geelong v West Coast, GMHBA Stadium, 11.45am

This has the potential to get ugly. Actually scrap that. Let’s remove potential and go with “this will get ugly”. Geelong have everything to play for and know that a sizeable win, coupled with other results falling their way, could deliver them second spot on the ladder.

The Eagles have nothing to play for and very little experienced personnel to call on for a trip that remains one of the most daunting for bad teams. If West Coast can manage only four goals at home in a milestone match, it’s impossible to think how they boot a bag against the Cats.

VERDICT: Geelong to win by 60 points or more

Richmond v Gold Coast, MCG, 12.10pm

There are a lot of sides facing up to considerable pressure this weekend. One of those who is but perhaps escaping scrutiny is Gold Coast. A finals berth is out of the question, but many questions will be asked if they fail to round out an underwhelming first season for Damien Hardwick with another interstate loss.

Especially considering their opponent is Richmond, the likely wooden spooners who Hardwick left high and dry midway through last year. He hasn’t been able to address the Suns’ soft underbelly despite his standing in the game. And unlike Adem Yze, he has had access to most of his talent.

Richmond have been ruined by injury and are going to lose a stack of experience at the end of the year. Can they summon one last effort?

VERDICT: Gold Coast to win

Hawthorn v North Melbourne, UTAS Stadium, 12.40pm

There isn’t a lot that separates North Melbourne and Richmond … a quick glance at the ladder backs that up. Given Hawthorn gouged the Tigers in a devastating 30-minute blitz to open round 23, one wonders how the Kangaroos handle this assignment at the Hawks’ Tasmanian fortress.

No Will Day (collarbone) will make North’s task a little easier, but considering how easily Alastair Clarkson’s side can be scored against, this presents as a beautiful chance for the Hawks to tune up for September.

They do so much right and place so much speed on the ball that even the better sides can’t harness them. And North are a long way removed from being one of those “better sides”.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 40 points or more

Brisbane v Essendon, Gabba, 5.30pm

Earlier this month, this was a match that loomed as a perfect opportunity for Brisbane to tune up for September and a double chance in the post-season.

Back-to-back defeats at the hands of GWS and Collingwood have put a fork in that. They not only have to dismiss Essendon, but hope West Coast produce an upset of epic proportions and take down Geelong at GMHBA Stadium. The second part isn’t happening, so Chris Fagan has to concentrate on what he can control.

And that is getting the Lions to recapture their best ahead of a likely home elimination final. As for the Bombers, getting out of Melbourne for their finale might just be a good thing. The decision to provide Dyson Heppell a farewell appearance is a week too late. Better late than never I suppose.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 25 points or more

Sydney v Adelaide, SCG, 5.40pm

Do we feel 100% confident that Sydney are back? Fighting wins over Collingwood and Essendon in the past fortnight assured the Swans of the minor premiership, which is no mean feat.

But nagging doubts remain, ones that will linger even if they account for the Crows at the SCG. They can only be dispelled by a strong September campaign. That is something Adelaide need not worry about.

The rollercoaster campaign of 2024 was encapsulated by last Saturday night’s defeat to bitter rivals Port Adelaide the fallout, which continued right through to selection this week by the axing of Josh Rachele.

VERDICT: Sydney by 1-39 points

SUNDAY

Western Bulldogs v GWS, Mars Stadium, Ballarat, 10.30am

It’s hard to reconcile with the fact that the Western Bulldogs are a genuine premiership threat yet to secure a spot in the finals. A win here against GWS would guarantee the Bulldogs a post-season berth and put their rivals on notice.

Failure to beat GWS in Ballarat though, coupled with other results, could see them miss altogether. And it’s not as if the Giants, fresh off another tight victory last weekend, don’t have plenty of incentive to finish their home-and-away commitments with purpose.

Marcus Bontempelli and Adam Treloar form a brilliant one-two punch in the midfield for the Bulldogs and you just know Tom Liberatore is going to put his head in the hole.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 points

Carlton v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium, 1.20pm

Carlton’s scenario is simple. Win this week and play finals football. They are in their position courtesy of last round’s bullying of West Coast interstate.

It was impressive, although not as electric as St Kilda’s ability to stand finals-bound Geelong a start and then give them a beating. It served as a timely reminder of the talent Ross Lyon has at his disposal and what they’re capable of when allowed to operate with some freedom.

The Saints are extremely comfortable inside Marvel Stadium and have the wheels and availability to cause an upset, which in turn provides Fremantle with a heartbeat.

VERDICT: St Kilda to win 

Fremantle v Port Adelaide, Optus Stadium, 2.40pm

Accurately assessing the prospects of either side here in respect to tipping is difficult. If Fremantle have had the door shut on their finals chances, it’s hard to see how they can upset Port Adelaide, who have so much to play for.

Conversely, if the Dockers enter this contest knowing it is a “win and in your in” scenario, you’d like to think they will have the motivation to get the job done, regardless of how well Port are travelling.

What is assured is a midfield battle for the ages. It is an area of strength for both, with the Dockers and Power engine rooms boasting bona fide stars.

VERDICT: Fremantle to win

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