Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Eagle Farm Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing once again at Eagle Farm on Saturday with Summer Carnival Day 6 to take place. With plenty of storm activity taking place on Xmas Day we could have a rain affected track however keep in mind this track is a very quick drying surface. We open the meeting with a 1200m BM70 where I’m going with value putting (18) BENGAL DIAMOND on top who will be suited by any give in the track, in fact she’s likely no chance on a dry surface as her good track record suggests. She was a real eye-catcher last start & gets in well here, looks well overs too. (20) FIRST EMPIRE strips fitter off the first up run when run down very late, stays at the same trip. (7) IMPENDOR next best.

Numbers: 18 – 20 – 7 – 13

Suggested Bet: BENGAL DIAMOND EACH-WAY (soft track preferred).

RACE 2

Rising to 2400m (1) SUN WORSHIPPER can bounce back to winning form here. Victorious at 2000m two back she gave away too much start her latest (2200m) before running home well & she’ll carry no more weight this time around aided by the claim for Jasper Franklin. (3) RATTLE AND HUM did a terrific job in the same race last start almost leading throughout setting a strong tempo, logical danger. (8) FARWEST looked a little unlucky at the Gold Coast last start, faces a tougher task here however the rise in trip is a plus.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet: SUN WORSHIPPER EACH-WAY.

RACE 3

1600m affair where I have definite question marks over a number of runners seeing out the trip strongly. That’s not the case with the last start winner (15) SPECIAL ARTIST who ran home right over the top of the leaders at the end of 1400m. He’s only lightly raced with plenty of upside & importantly both career wins have come on this track. (12) MIDNIGHT SPIRIT did plenty of work with the big weight last start, on trial out to this trip drops in weight. (10) ZOU BIG BOY the best wet tracker in the race, (11) CARPACCIO a risk at 1600m in my opinion.

Numbers: 15 – 12 – 10 – 11

Suggested Bet: SPECIAL ARTIST EACH-WAY.

RACE 4

This race looks likely to be run at a pretty easy tempo which should suit those racing up near the front. (3) PERFECT PLAY has been a model of consistency all preparation & maps ideally up in the lead here, placed both attempts this trip he rates a strong each-way chance. (14) PRINCE LEVI was narrowly beaten here over this trip last Saturday; simply beaten by a bob of the heads he’s peaking third-up. (2) ZAPHOD struggles to win however is more than capable of finishing in the placings.

Numbers: 3 – 14 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet: PERFECT PLAY EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 5

The very consistent (1) BELEGATO is an above average galloper who can take up a forward position when required & the way this race is likely to be run that may well be a key factor. Beaten by the open class sprinter Hidden Wealth last start he drops back plenty in grade & with the claim will carry only 1kg more weight. His record here over the 1000m is a good one. (3) KING YOSHI likely leads & has good form lines through the last start win downing Holy Racket. (2) TALTARI FIELDS is effective fresh whilst (4) PRE EMINENCE is also well in the mix.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet: BELEGATO TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 6

With the scratching of Paradoxium (1) TORNADO VALLEY will carry the hopes of punters in the Group 3 B. J. Mclachlan off his two impressive Melbourne runs in the spring. However, I just have this gut feeling (3) ZIP LOCK has good ability, he comfortably ran down Itchingtogo on debut & that one then came out & won the Phelan Ready, we know how well the stable has been going of late & he fares a lot better than his main rival at the barriers. (7) REMEMBRALL was also impressive on debut, this is definitely harder however you can’t knock winning form & she’s trialled well since.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 7 – 6

Suggested Bet: ZIP LOCK TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 7

Punters launched into (8) TORABELLA here a couple of weeks back as she looked very well placed on the map which suggested the race would be run at a leisurely tempo. Well, things turned out completely the opposite with pace & pressure on from the outset, she ended up wide & working resulting in a run which should be totally forgiven. This race really does look like being run a lot more softly & she can turn her form around sharply. (7) MISS JOELENE won that race & was well suited by the tempo, back to 1600m suits however does she give away too much start from the wide gate should the tempo not be there this time around? Throw (9) THAT’S MOLLY into the exotics, she’s a mare who has lost form however her last start was encouraging, she might be on the way back?

Numbers: 8 – 7 – 9 -1

Suggested Bet: TORABELLA EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

Very keen on the chances of (9) PEREILLE here, the only negative I have is the gate however he does settle back in his races as a rule, perhaps not as far back as he likely will today however he certainly won’t be close early. Slashing run in the George Moore here last start really attacking the line late albeit without threat to the winner. He beat home many of today’s rivals & against the shape of the race. (5) METALART placed in the Bribie fresh, that run will top him off nicely for this. Respecting the Melbourne spring form from (3) PAYLINE who comes into this off a freshen up, he’ll be strong late.

Numbers: 9 – 5 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet: PEREILLE EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

(3) SCRIPTED really doesn’t have to improve too much off her cracking fresh run to get away with this race. First up off a break of well over 12 months she powered to the line late steadily cutting back the winner’s margin & with the rise to 1200m will take a ton of holding out. (5) BARBERRY SPUR has had his chance to win at both runs back from a break, he will strip a lot fitter this time around though & again draws to get a soft run, note his only win to date was at this 1200m trip. (2) ABENDER goes in however will need luck off the wide draw.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 2 – 10

Suggested Bet: SCRIPTED TO WIN.

RACE 10

(9) CHIEF WITNESS draws down low in a race which doesn’t look strong on speed. Whilst he’s not a leading type he can take up a prominent position without working early & he drops 4kg in weight, with Angela Jones to steer he looks very well placed. (2) SCUD hit the line well in the Just Now here recently which wasn’t run to suit at all, the winner led throughout setting a soft tempo. (3) SER JOH is never far away & is another to draw favourably.

Numbers: 9 – 2 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet: CHIEF WITNESS TO WIN.

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