Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1 

SHMOOV MOOVA is three from three undefeated at trials across multiple preparations. He has covered the ground impressively in each, won each trial by over 1L and never been fully tested. Was a late scratching out of the Perth Stakes back in April when sitting on the third line of betting behind Bustling and Sir Dreamalot. Expect he’ll be very popular on debut. Exciting horse. GOLD MAKER put the writing on the wall at his first-up run. He’ll be better here at 1200m and then at 1400m in a fortnight’s time. KEEP ITA MYSTERY won well last start. SOLDIER OF GOD is an improving type.

Numbers: 6 – 3 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet – SHMOOV MOOVA WIN

RACE 2

BRAVO CENTURION broke his maiden by 3.4L in fast time and then lumped 60kg in a C1 1200 when again dominating from the front. Runs into a couple of noted speedsters here in Salt Lake Shake and Made In Mexico which probably gives them the option to park behind that speed battle and unearth a turn of foot. He’s very progressive. MADE IN MEXICO races Thursday at Pinjarra down the straight. Will he back-up off 2 days? SALT LAKE SHAKE would be the big beneficiary if Made In Mexico scratches. Straight to the front with shades on. SNIPPY WHICH is a sharp sprinter resuming off a strong trial win.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 7 – 2

Suggested Bet – BRAVO CENTURION WIN

RACE 3

HEMLOCK STONE put the writing on the wall last start with a fast finishing effort behind Deferred and Tenacious Reward. Happy to label that as the best form reference in this race with Deferred gunning for four in a row this preparation and Tenacious Reward having returned with two big minor placings. Ready for the mile and has a bit more zip than most of these when the sprint goes on. SUPER ROMANI is a bit of a grinding type of miler. Needs to be put into the race rather than saved for a late burst of speed. BERNBRAE ran past him in the late stages last start and should keep improving. VASILIEV leads and dictates.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 7 – 6

Suggested Bet – HEMLOCK STONE WIN

RACE 4

PENNY ON THE QUEEN is going better than numerical form suggests. Ran well with 60kg over 1100m at Northam first-up, was in the wrong part of the track second-up in a winner producing race (Desert Nymph, Estimator and King’s Flirt) and then was marginally held up last start when working to the line. Not out of this at double figures. WATCH ME ROCK bolted in first-up to defy an aggressive drift in betting. Always promised to go through his grades. Maps sticky though? YALLINGUP GIRL was a solid return off two good trials. LOVA SESSION doesn’t win races but she’s always thereabouts.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 9 – 4

Suggested Bet – PENNY ON THE QUEEN EACHWAY

RACE 5

DEFERRED and TENACIOUS REWARD ran the exacta in a 60+ Graduation last start and this 66+ 1400m looks no tougher. DEFERRED is charging through her grades and looking to win her fourth consecutive race in the process. She’s got a big turn of foot when saved up and all the form around her is holding up brilliantly. See no reason to jump off the bandwagon. TENACIOUS REWARD has been excellent in both runs this preparation but was beaten fair and square by Deferred last start and only gets 1.5kg in his favour for an extending 1L margin. MANAVENDRA found the line well over 1200 and improves over further. WANGO AWARD is racing consistently well.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet – DEFERRED WIN

RACE 6

SONOFTHEBOSS should work his way to the top here and control the tempo. Last start he sat right up on speed in a race where they ran the first 600m 8L faster than average. He was left a sitting duck for two quality chasers in Sentimental Belle and Silver Eye and considering the early and mid-stage sections he was brave to hold on for third. Gets things far cheaper here. RUSSIAN SNIPER produced a career PB figure last start at his 21st run of the preparation. Remarkable animal. UNDER INFLUENCE has always looked like he would run out 1200. LENIENCY was a great return to racing. Drawn awkwardly here though.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 8 – 5

Suggested Bet – SONOFTHEBOSS WIN

RACE 7

SOSO LUCKY has been highly impressive in a two start career. She let rip with a big turn of foot on debut to mow the leaders down and then at her second start went right back the cutaway which so far had been a no-go-zone at that particular meeting. This is another step up in grade but she continues to raise the bar. NO BRAINER suffered his first defeat last start but watching the replay he was unable to build momentum at any stage in the home straight and was a complete forgive. SIBERIAN SIREN parks on speed and rarely runs a bad race. CRUISE TO VICTORY is thriving at Williams Racing.

Numbers: 10 – 6 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet – SOSO LUCKY WIN

RACE 8

SEARCHIN’ ROC’S and VALOUR ROAD are the two WFA horses in this WFA feature. Add to that the fact that they’ll quite likely settle first and second in running and it becomes increasingly difficult to look past them. SEARCHIN’ ROC’S went through the winter WFA series and split Western Empire and Magnificent Andy before finishing third behind Magnificent Andy and Let’s Galahvant. Can’t ask for much more in terms of form and she swims. VALOUR ROAD has blinkers on (first time since 2020) and bar plates off. Two massive gear changes for the reigning Idyllic Prince Stakes winner. GINGER BAKER gets a soft run. SALOON BAR is finishing off his races strongly.

Numbers: 9 – 1 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – SEARCHIN’ ROC’S WIN

Same Race Multi – Searchin’ Roc’s (Top 3) + Valour Road (Top 3)

Searchin’ Roc’s and Valour Road are the two proven WFA performers in the 2024 Idyllic Prince Stakes. On paper they’re a massive chance of running the quinella but just in case something bobs up at odds we’ll take the pair of them to finish Top 3 as a safer option. They could well settle first and second in running and if they do they’ll be mighty hard to run down in the conditions.

RACE 9

WESTRIVER MIRACLE almost landed the money two starts back when beaten a head by Sensessional. Meets him 4.5kg better and is drawn to sit leader’s back behind a strong tempo (Savage One / Filthy Habits). He dropped back to 1400m last start and at this stage of his career they’re a bit sharp for him at that trip. Weight off his back, maps a treat, can win and is double figures again. We butter up. FALCON TRADER has been a model of consistency throughout his preparation. With the engagement of Brayden Gaerth he now meets Sensessional 3.5kg better for a neck defeat last start. Just needs to get in. SENSESSIONAL continues to find a way. Looking for five in a row. PLAYHOUSE PATRON can bounce back after a freshen.

Numbers: 12 – 1 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet – WESTRIVER MIRACLE EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

2,3,5,8

1,4,6,10

1,9

1,2,4,12

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