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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 12

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Brisbane v Essendon, Gabba, 5.30pm

Brisbane sent a timely reminder to the football community that they have a major role to play in the premiership race with their demolition of Hawthorn at the MCG. It was the Lions at their crisp and powerful best.

It is a brand of football which we saw in last year’s grand final and will be beyond Essendon in this clash. The Bombers not only have to journey north, but do so with a line-up that has been absolutely riddled by injuries.

This match gets as messy as Brisbane want it to get. The Bombers only two weeks ago were annihilated by the Western Bulldogs. This is considerably harder.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 40 points or more

Same Game Multi: Zach Merrett, Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft to have 25+ disposals @ $2.12*

FRIDAY

Collingwood v Hawthorn, MCG, 5.40pm

We often hear about clubs seeking an opportunity to redeem themselves after a less than satisfactory performance the week prior. Having been humbled by Brisbane last Saturday, Hawthorn have been required to wait just six days for redemption.

And what a stage that awaits them. There is no bigger task in football than taking down Collingwood before a heaving MCG. The Magpies, aside from a couple of slip-ups in 2025, are humming. Their best is breathtaking, headlined by their ability to defend stoutly but also apply scoreboard pressure in the blink of an eye.

They welcome back a swag of stars for this clash and the fresh legs could prove to be a bridge too far for the Hawks, who are missing Will Day badly through the midfield.

VERDICT: Collingwood to win

Same Game Multi: Jai Newcombe and Josh Daicos to have 25+ disposals and Jamie Elliott to kick 2+ goals @ $4.10*

SATURDAY

Gold Coast v Fremantle, People First Stadium, 11.20am

Fremantle flew the flag for Alex Pearce at the AFL Tribunal this week and were rewarded for their efforts. Unfortunately, a leg injury will prevent the Dockers skipper from playing against Gold Coast, leaving the responsibility of curbing Ben King to somebody else.

However, the forecast of a wet afternoon on the Gold Coast could well nullify the influence of King and Jed Walter, who form a potent 1-2 punch in attack. The decision to include both Sean Darcy and Nat Fyfe would suggest the Dockers match committee are expecting a slogging affair.

If that is indeed how it plays out, gilt-edged scoring opportunities might be few and far between. It wouldn’t be a complete and utter shock if Fremantle notched a third straight win over the Suns.

VERDICT: Gold Coast 1-39 points

Same Game Multi: Gold Coast 1-39 points and game total under 168.5 points @ $2.60*

GWS v Richmond, ENGIE Stadium, 2.15pm

If GWS are able to bottle what they have produced on more than one occasion this season, they will have a role to play at the pointy end of the season. Their scalps include Collingwood and Geelong and only last round dismantled Carlton in Melbourne.

Their best is elite. But they have an alarming habit of mixing their form. Recalling Josh Kelly is a significant boost, the silky left-footer returning to bolster a midfield that should have too much firepower for Richmond, even factoring in Toby Nankervis and Dion Prestia’s inclusion.

VERDICT: GWS by 40+ points

Same Game Multi: Tom Green and Lachie Ash to have 30+ disposals and Jesse Hogan to kick 3+ goals @ $4.35*

Sydney v Adelaide, SCG, 5.35pm

D-Day has arrived for Sydney. There will be no coming back, no finals appearances, no talk of another September surge should they fail to take care of business at home against Adelaide.

Alarmingly, the bookmakers and broader football industry is expecting the Swans to slide to 4-8 with another defeat, this time at the hands of the Crows, who are ticking along nicely and have the weapons forward of centre to prove a real handful.

The key here for Adelaide is embracing the challenge. They knew a response was coming from Fremantle after a poor showing the week prior and failed to handle it. Similarly, a bounce back is expected from Sydney after their mauling by Melbourne. Over to you, Adelaide.

VERDICT: Adelaide to win

Same Game Multi: Adelaide to win and game total over 174.5 points @ $2.80*

SUNDAY

Melbourne v St Kilda, Traeger Park, 1.20pm

If you needed any convincing that Melbourne were on the right track, it came last weekend at the MCG with a powerhouse performance opposed to Sydney. It was modern-day football played the right way and had they kicked accurately, the margin could have ventured near triple figures.

Such a number is foreign to St Kilda. They don’t want to attack like other sides do and when they do venture forward, they are disjointed. Ross Lyon doesn’t have the tools in regards to quality personnel like other coaches, but the ones he does possess are invariably used to blunt rivals.

Twice this season Kysiah Pickett has amassed five goals and 20 possessions, a return that underlines his standing in the game at present.

VERDICT: Melbourne to win

Same Game Multi: Kysiah Pickett and Jack Higgins to kick 2+ goals @ $2.95*

West Coast v Geelong, Optus Stadium, 5.20pm

Andrew McQualter knew he was going to do some hard yards in his first season as West Coast coach. But the task confronting him at present is proving really challenging.

With key players unavailable through injury already, the rookie mentor and his assistants now need to structure up a forward line for the remainder of the year without Jake Waterman, arguably West Coast’s best player and a reigning All-Australian, because of a shoulder setback.

And for good measure, Geelong now hit town. Enough said.

VERDICT: Geelong 1-39 points

Same Game Multi: Liam Duggan, Gryan Miers and Tom Stewart to have 20+ disposals @ $3.60*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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