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David Shortte’s AFL Round 7 Preview

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

THURSDAY

Western Bulldogs v Sydney, Marvel Stadium, 5.30pm

After winning their first 4 games in fine style the Doggies have had a horror fortnight losing to Adelaide by 40 points and then last week by 75 to Geelong. Worse than that though is the injury toll that has taken place in the process. Young Gun Sam Darcy is out for the season and joins Tom Liberatore, Rory Lobb, James O’Donnell,  Tim English, Connor Budarick and Arty Jones on the sidelines.

Meanwhile Sydney have gone about their business in stunning fashion winning 5 of their 6 games including wins over Brisbane, Gold Coast and GWS. Isaac Heeney is out with injury but in comparison to the Dogs injury list the Swans are relatively healthy with just Errol Gulden and Heeney missing from their best 22.

Life is all about timing and the Swans look to be getting the Dogs at their most vulnerable here. I don’t like tipping against the Dogs at Marvel Stadium but every team has a tipping point when it comes to injuries and I think the last 2 week’s worth of carnage makes it hard for them in this.

VERDICT: Sydney by 23 points

Same Game Multi: Joel Freijah to get 15 or more disposals, Adam Treloar, Justin McInerney, Ryley Sanders and Brodie Grundy to all get 20 or more disposals and Aaron Naughton to kick 2 goals or more @ $4.10*

FRIDAY

Richmond v Melbourne, MCG, 5.40pm

The Tigers suffered another heavy loss last week going down by 75 points to North Melbourne and unfortunately for them their injury list continues to grow. Both Tim Taranto and Sam Banks join 10 of their team mates on the injury list but in more positive news they are likely to welcome back Tom Lynch for this contest.

Melbourne have been one of the surprise packets of the season to this point and their 2 point win over reigning champions Brisbane last week is one to be proud of.

Providing the Demons turn up in the right frame of mind they really should be winning this, and by a margin too.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 49 points.

Same Game Multi: Melbourne to win by 25 points or more, Jack Steele, Max Gawn and Jayden Short to all get 20 or more disposals and Brody Mihocek to kick one goal or more @ $3.30*

SATURDAY

Hawthorn v Gold Coast, UTAS Stadium, 10.30am

The Hawks made it 5 wins on the bounce when defeating Port Adelaide by 3 points but it wasn’t their sharpest performance of the season. They also had two costly suspensions out of the game with both Dylan Moore and James Sicily set to miss here. Importantly veteran forward Jack Gunston is set to return.

Gold Coast were pushed to the limit in their 9 point win over Essendon. Star recruit Christian Petracca was again the catalyst for a lot of their good work and slotted 3 goals as did current Coleman Medal favourite Ben King. Noah Anderson is expected to return from injury.

This should be a tremendous contest between two of the better sides in the competition so far in season 2026. Hawthorn love playing at this ground where they have won their last 10 matches in a row and that record may well prove the key to this contest.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 7 points.

Same Game Multi: Jack Ginnivan to get 15 or more disposals, Christian Petracca and Jai Newcombe to both get 20 or more disposals and Jack Gunston to kick 3 or more goals @ $3.10*

Essendon v Collingwood, MCG, 1.20pm

The Bombers have had a decent fortnight with a 45 point win over Melbourne and a narrow 9 point loss to the Suns on the Gold Coast where they pushed a good opponent right to the wire.

The Pies sit in 11th spot on the table with a 3-3 record and they relied heavily on the genius of Nick Daicos to get them over the line in last week’s 5 point win over arch rival Carlton. DeGoey, Sidebottom and Moore are all pressing hard for a return and would be valuable inclusions.

This traditional Anzac Day fixture always comes with great anticipation and despite neither of these two sides being in the top 10 you can expect a fierce contest that I think can go right down to the wire.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 5 points.

Same Game Multi: Either team to win by 39 or less, Scott Pendlebury to get 20 or more disposals, Josh Daicos and Archie Roberts to both get 25 disposals or more @ $3.25*

Port Adelaide v Geelong, Adelaide Oval, 4.35pm

Port handed in one of their better performances of the season last week when going down to the Hawks at Marvel Stadium by just 3 points. Zak Butters was huge again for the Power with 35 disposals, 5 tackles and a goal.

The Cats made it 4 wins from their last 5 matches with a thumping 75 point over the Doggies. Veteran forward Jeremy Cameron stole the show with his 10 goal haul.

Geelong have a class edge here and visiting the Adelaide Oval has posed no problem for them in recent times.

VERDICT: Geelong by 23 points.

Same Game Multi: Max Holmes and Bailey Smith to both get 25 disposals or more, Mitch Georgiades to kick 2 goals or more and Jeremy Cameron to kick 3 or more goals @ $4*

Fremantle v Carlton, Optus Stadium, 6.15pm

Fremantle brought up their fifth win on the trot when they were able to convincingly defeat cross town rivals West Coast by 56 points. Jye Amiss looks to heave regained his confidence and his 5 goal effort was excellent.

It was yet another narrow defeat for Carlton who lost to Collingwood by 5 points. They have now lost their last 4 in a row and sit 16th on the AFL table with just 1 win for the season.

This is another wonderful opportunity for Fremantle to extend their winning streak to six. If they play anywhere near their top they will take a power of stopping.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 37 points.

Same Game Multi: Fremantle to win, Shai Bolton and Luke Jackson to both get 15 or more disposals, Jordan Clark and Murphy Reid to both get 20 disposals or more and Sam Walsh to get 25 or more disposals @ $3.30*

SUNDAY

St Kilda v West Coast, Marvel Stadium, 11.10am

The Saints are coming off a heart breaking 1 point loss on the road to Adelaide which could easily gone their way with an ounce of good fortune. They now sit 2 wins and 4 losses and sit 13th on the AFL table

West Coast are coming off three big losses, losing to Sydney by 128 points, Geelong by 46 points and the Dockers by 56 points.

Saint Kilda will be looking to bounce back hard here at the venue where they play their best footy. They look tough to oppose.

VERDICT: Saint Kilda by 31 points

Same Game Multi: Saint Kilda to win, Willem Duursma and Elliot Yeo to both get 15 disposals or more, Callum Wilkie and Tim Kelly to both get 20 disposals or more and Jack Sinclair to get 25 disposals or more @ $3.95*

Brisbane v Adelaide, GABBA, 1.15pm

After winning 3 matches in a row most expected Brisbane to take care of Melbourne last week but it was not to be and the Lions suffered a 2 point loss.

After an emotional week for their football club Adelaide were able to dig deep and pull off a 1 point victory over the Saints. Veteran Tex Walker turned back the clock and was first class with his 5 majors.

Brisbane get back to the GABBA here and while they are not playing to their absolute top they must always be respected on their home turf

VERDICT: Brisbane by 11 points.

Same Game Multi: Either team to win by 39 points or less, Jasper Fletcher and Josh Rachele to both get 15 disposals or more and Logan Morris to kick 2 goals or more @ $3.10*

GWS v North Melbourne, Manuka Oval, 2.40pm

GWs have had a rotten run of injuries but are likely to welcome back some genuine fire power with the likelihood that Jesse Hogan, Aaron Cadman and Stephen Coniglio will all return for this clash.

North Melbourne have had their best start to a season for many years and are playing with a growing confidence. They smashed the Tigers by 75 points last week and have now won 3 of their last 4 outings.

I like the ins for the Giants here and despite the Kangaroos playing some good football I am leaning towards GWs to get the job done.

VERDICT: GWS by 17 points

Same Game Multi: Luke Davies-Uniacke and Luke Parker to both have 20 disposals or more, Clayton Oliver and Finn Callaghan to both get 25 disposals or more and Aaron Cadman to kick 2 goals or more @ $4.30*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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