Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill, 5 Group 1’s, it doesn’t get much bigger. The weather is the unknown, showers are forecast in the lead-up & on race day, what will we get? Hopefully nothing. We get underway with a 1500m Midway & as is usually the case the market suggests it’s a wide-open affair. (5) TENDERIZE was a Canterbury winner over this distance range two starts back before sitting outside the leader at Randwick last time out, that race was run at a quick tempo suggesting the effort to finish just out of the placings was a sound one. (3) SATNESS is generally around the mark at this level whilst (8) MY PHAR LADY & (9) KINGSTON CHARM are also in the mix.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 8 – 9

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

Topweight (1) CAMPALDINO has come back in good form this prep. Out of the placings first up he did a power of early work & stuck on extremely well to be beaten just over 2 lengths. Second up drawn an inside gate he enjoyed a much softer run & finished off strongly to land the money over 2000m. The additional 400m here is ideal (won up to 3200m) however I’d be lying if I didn’t say I was a little concerned with the big weight rise (up 4kg to 59kg). (8) JUJA KIBO the clear danger, should be nearing his peak third run back & did place at Group 1 level last prep, trip no issue for him either & he meets (1) CAMPALDINO 2.5kg better for the last start 1.5L defeat. The consistent (4) TRAVOLTA next best.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 4 – 14

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

Looking forward to seeing (2) PINITO go around once again here. She’s a favourite of mine who made good ground first up over 1300m before up to the mile & finishing off very strongly to win her latest. Now she hits 1900m which is going to suit ideally & importantly she handles all types of going. At the odds on offer I’d definitely have a saver on (7) POLYMINA who finished 1.7L behind (2) PINITO last start weaving home strongly from the back of the field, very honest mare who looks ready to peak. Connections suggested (6) MOVIN’ OUT would be looking for further now & she gets its here, place chance.

Numbers: 2 – 7 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet: PINITO TO WIN/Saver POLYMNIA.

RACE 4

Cracking race for the 3yo’s at Listed level. I’m really going wide of the mark here suggesting we have something small on (15) MARETH each-way. Just noted her hitting the line well late in a race not run to suit here by BEADMAN who also goes around here & keep in mind her only win came on soft ground. (2) SKYHOOK resumes with a trial win under his belt; he’s got some super form lines last prep through the likes of Tempted & Tentyris. (8) NASHVILLE JACK is an underrated type who can figure in the placings.

Numbers: 15 – 2 – 8 – 9

Suggested Bet: MARETH EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 5

Only a small field to face the starter in this year’s Group 1 Ranvet over the 2000m. (1) SIR DELIUS & (4) AELIANA dominate the market which is no surprise as they have a fair bit on their rivals. Have to be with (4) AELIANA who has been the bridesmaid to her star stablemate Autumn Glow both runs this time in, with her out of the picture, fully fit & rising in trip she’s the one however don’t expect any decent odds. (1) SIR DELIUS ran third in the same race first up & was no match for the two mares however will have come on fitness wise & the 2000m is much more suitable. (2) LINDERMANN best of the remainder, forgive his latest pulling up with cardiac arrhythmia.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet: AELIANA TO WIN.

RACE 6

The Group 1 Rosehill Guineas is dominated market wise by (1) OBSERVER & (2) AUTUMN BOY. I’m going wide suggesting we have something each-way (4) GREEN SPACES who took the run first up before giving too much start in the Randwick Guineas (1600m) however he did catch the eye very late & through the line making ground. That was his second try at 1600m with the first being a 3-length romp in the Group 3 Spring Stakes at Newcastle at his final run last prep. Can only assume he will lap up this longer trip? (1) OBSERVER will roll forward from the ideal draw & land a perfect run, I’ve got him well ahead of (2) AUTUMN BOY who takes on 2000m for the first time.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet: GREEN SPACES EACH-WAY.

RACE 7

The Group 1 George Ryder is up next featuring the unbeaten mare (8) AUTUMN GLOW who is going to go around an extremely short-priced favourite. That’s not surprising as she’s won all of her 10 starts coasting home first up before overcoming a slowly run affair to bring up double-figures last start. She ticks every single box, there cannot be any knock, only bad luck can beat her. (9) LADY SHENANDOAH raced back & wide in the Canterbury Stakes last start & did a good job to hold down third, she’ll land a much softer run from the rails this time around. (1) GRINGOTTS & (4) HEADLEY GRANGE were both strong to the line in the same race & will appreciate the additional 200m.

Numbers: 8 – 9 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet: AUTUMN GLOW TO WIN, box up 9, 1, 4 for the placings in trifecta/first 4’s.

RACE 8

What an open Golden Slipper. I know I’m not the only one who has been waiting week in, week out for that potential star 2yo to raise his/her hand & dominate the betting market. Well, unfortunately time has run out & what we are left with is a hugely competitive Group 1 where it’s pretty much $5 plus the field. Could this be the year of a major upset?

How much speed is likely this year? From inside rail to outside I’ve got nos.8, 4, 2, 5 & 16 going forward, gut feel is (8) Music Time will ease & let the other four go, should that be the case (4) WARWOVEN will comfortably slide across & becomes big chance of finding the fence with the other trio (2, 5 & 16) all pushing on endeavouring to lead which should produce a good tempo. Of those on speed I feel (4) WARWOVEN will end up with the right run & with gaps in the straight get his chance. He was strong here last week on a decent speed & Bjorn Baker has surely left a little in the tank. Off speed I’m with (14) CHAYAN who should have won on debut (wide) before seeing more of the outside rail than inside in the Blue Diamond. She finally scored a decent trip in the Reisling at Randwick & put her rivals away looking very strong from the 200m. Of course (12) STREISAND has beaten (14) CHAYAN on the two occasions they have met, absolutely no knock on that filly however reverse the runs & I’d suggest (14) CHAYAN would have beaten her at least in the Blue Diamond Prelude. (7) ZAMBALES was strong late in the Blue Diamond, just gave away too much start in the Sires & although back in trip is well worth throwing into exotics.

Numbers: 14 – 4 – 12 – 7

Suggested Bet: CHAYAN/WARWOVEN.

RACE 9

Keen to have something each-way the third emergency (17) INKARUNA in the Group 1 Galaxy however as I type there are no scratchings suggesting I may have to wait for her to turn up in the next race & at much shorter odds. She looked a good thing beaten first up when having to wait for clear running half-way down the Randwick straight, once into the open she wound up well & ran home hard to just miss. This is obviously a great deal harder however if around the double-figure mark is worth an each-way bet. Should she not gain a start I’ll default back to (1) BRIASA who is the class runner in the race, the wide gate & how much start he gives away is the concern though. (14) GRAFTERBURNERS has missed a trial leading in, he’s flying however market moves close to race time (post mounting yard) the best guide.

Numbers: 17 – 1 – 14 – 2

Suggested Bet: INKARUNA EACH-WAY/Exotics.

RACE 10

Well if (10) INKARUNA misses out in the previous then she’s running here & I’m with her for all the same reasons (good thing beaten first up when having to wait for clear running half-way down the Randwick straight, once into the open she wound up well & ran home hard to just miss). (4) MONTE SUPREME was good on the clock running on from the back second-up, not as impressive to the eye however she strikes an easier race, is a second up winner & handles all types of going. (13) SPRING LEE could be an improver at odds.

Numbers: 10 – 4 – 13 – 3

Suggested Bet: INKARUNA TO WIN.

Market Market



Recent Articles