Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing in Sydney on Saturday will take place (hopefully) on a soggy Rosehill track which has received plenty of rain as I type Thursday & there’s more on the way. I’ve basically looked for the wet trackers throughout this card, tread very warily. We get things underway with a BM72 where I’m going with one at odds putting (9) AROHA STONE on top purely based on her heavy track record of 3 placings from as many attempts. She was stiff two back on a heavy (9) before outclassed on a drier deck last time out. (1) BELLA KHADIJAH bolted in fresh (heavy) before ok the latest. (4) NARBOLD in the mix, (5) AMUSING may struggle on something this wet.

Numbers: 9 – 1 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet: AROHA STONE EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 2

Leaning to (1) DENMAN STAR in this week’s Midway who has come back to racing in good order this prep winning & placing at both outings. Although unplaced only heavy track attempt his soft record is a good one & with J. Mac to steer from a good draw he looks tough to beat. (7) CONVERGENT shows plenty of promise having only had the two outings, very progressive looking type with a ton of upside. Although yet to see a heavy surface (5) COLD BREW has raced well on soft ground to date, very impressive winning his maiden two starts back.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

The unbeaten (5) WITHOUT PARALLEL hasn’t been exposed to a heavy track as yet however she’s handled a soft (5) & (6) well to this stage. Liked her first up Eagle Farm win leading throughout to hold out another good type with a decent gap back to 3rd. I’ll definitely have a saver on (2) FIRST LANDING who is busting to win a race, placed second his past couple both without luck & holds a perfect heavy track record. (7) CAMBAR resumes, yet to be beaten whilst fresh, interestingly his 3 career wins have come on all 3 surfaces.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 7 – 16

Suggested Bet: WITHOUT PARALLEL & FIRST LANDING TO WIN

RACE 4

Tough to tip against (7) TUILERIES here who will likely be sent around the shortest priced favourite of the day. Drawn wide first up she went back before running home strongly against the tempo of the race, she gets out to 1400m here & although the heavy ground is the unknown I’ll take the punt providing she’s not silly odds. (2) PIPPIE BEACH is 2 from 2 on heavy ground, that’s her go, she’ll get conditions to suit today, must include. Certainly no knock (1) LADY EXTREME who gets through any type of ground & comes back in grade from the Ramornie last start.

Numbers: 7 – 2 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet: TUILERIES TO WIN ($2 or better).

RACE 5

(11) GRAND PRARIE is a very promising colt out of a top yard who won well first up albeit in easier maiden grade. He will drift back & that’s not ideal off the inside draw however with a touch of luck he can weave through the pack & finish hard. (5) STARDEEL is on the quick back up from last Saturday at Randwick, may be looking for further however racing well this prep. (13) KARINSKA is a very interesting runner, maiden winner on debut she then tackled a couple of Golden Slipper lead-ups when far from disgraced, note that debut win came on a soft (6) deck.

Numbers: 11 – 5 – 13 – 9

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 6

Small field where I’m with (1) WELWAL who closed off strongly two back before completely out of luck in the Winter Stakes here 4 weeks ago. Two horses ran into traffic issues in that race being he & Robusto who made amends next outing, the claim is a big positive & importantly all wins to date have been on soft & heavy ground. (8) IT’S A KNOCKOUT bolted in fresh, gave every indication second-up he was ready for further, gets an additional 100m today. Certainly no knock (3) HEADLEY GRANGE who will appreciate the weight drop of 4kg from the South Grafton Cup where he lumped 62kg & was asked to work early.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet: WELWAL TO WIN.

RACE 7

Victorian visitor (9) JUJA KIBO looks well placed here providing he handles the heavy ground. Only lightly raced & in one of the country’s leading stables he’s progressing very well placing both outings this time in before romping home third-up on the Sandown Hillside circuit. With Braith Nock’s claim he looks well placed at the weights. (7) PIGGYBACK the toughest to beat, holds the best heavy track record in the race by a fair way & hasn’t had things pan out her past couple. The consistent (4) CORMAC T will appreciate the drop back in distance.

Numbers: 9 – 7 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet: JUJA KIBO EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

Very open looking race this one. I’ve ended up putting (9) LIBERTY STATE on top although I’m certainly not overflowing with confidence. Impressive winning first up (heavy 8) his last couple have been pass marks on drier ground however back to the boggy conditions he’ll excel. (12) JUST IN TIME has returned to racing in cracking form having won both outings this prep by decent margins, both have been on soft (5) ground, she’s bred to handle this wetter surface. Surely (1) FULLY LIT can improve, unplaced all 4 runs this prep he’s been a disappointment, this isn’t strong, he can at least place.

Numbers: 9 – 12 – 1 – 14

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 9

(9) BUNKER HUT looks very well placed here second-up from a break. He sat wide facing the breeze first up & fought on very well to the line clocking in 4th beaten just over a length. Same weight today, fitter & placed 3 of his 4 outings on heavy ground he can get away with this. (12) YOSHINUBU finished out of the placings all 3 runs last prep however they were in Listed grade & he didn’t have the best of luck on a couple of occasions, returned a gelding here recently winning well & drops 5kg. (5) ASTERO put in a poor one last start, previous efforts were solid & the ground won’t be of any concern.

Numbers: 9 – 12 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet: BUNKER HUT TO WIN.

RACE 10

Going with one at big odds to round out the day & that’s (10) HERBERT PARK who is clearly a ‘swimmer’, his record spells that out very clearly. 2 from 2 on heavy, 2 from 4 on soft & not one single placing on dry ground, should he run up to the effort two starts back he’s in with a chance at a good price. (7) ROSELYN’S STAR is the BIG watch, cracking debut, beat a good one second start before placing in a Group 3 Golden Slipper lead up his only other outing. All of that was back in the autumn of 2024, trials have been good, market? Happy to give (3) SPYWIRE another chance, likely appreciates the drop back in distance & fully fit third-up.

Numbers: 10 – 7 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet: HERBERT PARK EACH-WAY.

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