Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing at Rosehill on Saturday will be on wet ground after the deluge earlier this week. Things will dry out from Thursday suggesting a soft surface is highly likely. I’m with the much hyped (1) RAGING FORCE in this opening race who has been totally dominant at both wins this prep, his only other run was when failing in the Breeders Plate last October when having valid excuses. He can measure up to Saturday company. (7) CAESAR is a stablemate who has won both lead up trials, always a good sign from this yard. Plenty of good trials amongst the other debutantes as well, monitor market moves closely.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 6 – 10

Suggested Bet: RAGING FORCE TO WIN.

RACE 2

(7) EQUILIBRIST gets conditions to suit in this week’s Midway. His effort here last week running on well to finish fourth was a good one & note all his wins have been on soft/heavy ground. (1) IRON MAN should be getting close now & does drop in grade although rises plenty in weight, may end up going around in Race 8? (3) ZOURIPPER bolted in first up at Kembla, chance should he turn up in the same mood here.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 3 – 8

Suggested Bet: EQUILIBRIST EACH-WAY.

RACE 3

(6) EXIT FEE is already a winner at this Highway level & is never far away each time he goes around. Beaten less than a length first up he arguably finishes closer if able to get a clear crack sooner. Gets his chance to make amends here & should go very close to doing so. (4) LUNAITE had her chance last start setting a below average tempo, effort was sound enough to rate some hope although the outside gate is no soda. (11) PLENTITUDE is back in trip which suits, can improve sharply off the latest run.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 11 – 8

Suggested Bet: EXIT FEE TO WIN.

RACE 4

Although yet to win out to this 1300m trip I’m with (1) CODETTA who ran a cracking race here last start. Caught deep throughout she was more than entitled to toss in the towel down the straight however kept on fighting doggedly finish third. Wide draw here no favour & it could well end up a ‘cut & paste’ however let’s hope that’s not the case. Liked the finishing effort of (10) AMUSING first up, may want further now however not out of it. (7) GATEKEEPER a very interesting runner whilst (13) LUNAITE has also accepted in the previous race, much better alley in this however it’s a tougher assignment.

Numbers: 1 – 10 – 7 – 13

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 5

Topweight (1) STORM THE RAMPARTS is absolutely flying of late almost making it 3 on the trot last start. Run down late he did a terrific job with the big weight & he needed to as he’ll carry a kilo more here. On speed, wet track around Rosehill should be more suitable than Randwick where he’s been going so well. (4) SHALL BE resumes with a very impressive fresh & wet track record, hasn’t been off the scene all that long suggesting he should be ready to go here. (5) TARPAULIN a very interesting runner, last three runs prior to the break all in black type company, prior to that he won two straight on heavy ground.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 5 – 10

Suggested Bet: Box up top 3 selections in exotics.

RACE 6

Thought (1) HI DUBAI was very solid up on speed last start over 1000m sticking on well right to the line, in fact her last 25m or so she got a surge on to only go under by a small margin in a 3-way thriller. All three wins have been at this 1100m trip & that’s exactly what that last run suggested she’s now chasing. (5) LONHRO’S QUEEN gets through all types of ground, she gets back in her races which is never ideal however can find the line which was definitely the case last start. (10) SAVAGERY VIBE is racing well, 5 lengths off a potential top liner at Flemington last start suggests she’s in the mix here.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 10 – 8

Suggested Bet: HI DUBAI EACH-WAY.

RACE 7

Pretty confident I’ve never tipped (8) CORMAC T in my life to date however that’s all about to change here. Very consistent this prep until running into trouble last start I’m suggesting he can bounce back at this level & he does have a good wet track record. (15) GOOD BANTER is one I have tipped many times & she’s yet to repay my faith, the wetter the better for her sees her in the mix once again. The consistent (14) GENTILESCHI goes in as does the emergency (17) ASSAILANT who can be pumped up the order should he gain a start.

Numbers: 8 – 15 – 14 – 17

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

Very wide-open affair this one. Should the track dry out to a soft (13) COSMANOVA may be worth an each-way play. Clearly she doesn’t handle anything heavy however that’s not the case on soft where she’s won 3 of her 6 attempts, her effort in a stronger race last start was a good one & she still gets in quite light at the weights. (9) FULLY LIT should be ready, if not he’ll heed to at least finish close up. (5) CIGAR FLICK is an enigma for punters however the wet ground holds no fears.

Numbers: 13 – 9 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 9

The Listed Winter Stakes is the day’s highlight & it looks a very competitive affair. Now (4) ACCREDITED is back in winning form I’m happy to stick with him. Good fresh, excuses second up before saluting last start with the big weight. He’s well up to this & drops 3kg, drier the track the better he won’t want it in the heavy range. Has this race been 1600m I’d be all over (2) WELWAL however it’s only 1400m which might just be too short based on the latest run, he’ll be charging home late once again though. (1) ROBUSTO drops back from the Group 1 Stradbroke, massive class drop, don’t underestimate. Chances certainly don’t end there.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet: ACCREDITED EACH-WAY.

RACE 10

(5) KERGUELEN & (12) SACRED ROCKS are the two for me here & my decision has been made a little easier by their respective barrier draws with the former faring a lot better than the latter. He’s a swimmer (5) KERGUELEN & would have preferred it to keep raining however things should still be damp enough for him to get his chance. (12) SACRED ROCKS was never going to get there until very late last start, promising & must have a saver. (10) BRAVE RUN was never on the track when winning last start, softish tempo helped however still a strong effort & cannot be overlooked.

Numbers: 5 – 12 – 10 – 11

Suggested Bet: BACKING KERGUELEN TO WIN/SAVING SACRED ROCKS.

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