Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill will be run on a dry track. No less than 5 Group 1’s on the card, what a day we have to look forward to, bring it on! A 1500m Midway gets us underway & as is the norm with these races it’s an open affair. I’ll lean to (9) IT’S A WONDER who draws a lot better than most of his main rivals (bar PROMITTO), he’s been thereabouts of late without winning, this looks a suitable assignment. (1) PROMITTO has led his past couple & been overhauled late, from the draw I’d love to see the apprentice ride him a little more patiently off speed. (4) RUSH ATTACK & (2) PEACE OFFICER right in it however will need luck off their wide draws.

Numbers: 9 – 1 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

The majority of these come out of the race run at Randwick back on March 8th over 1600 won by Little Baia. Whilst I don’t think it’s all that strong a form line there’s nothing else from left field that commands any attention. Out of that race (7) MARE OF MT BULLER does look to be the best placed, she was the one running home best & the step up in distance isn’t going to be of any concern, she’s also the most favoured weight wise out of that race. (1) HINGED was strange run on that occasion, close enough into the straight she didn’t get much room & only really held ground when doing so, she should be ready to hit her straps now. (14) BRIGADINE GAL may be the best of those runners not coming out of the Randwick race.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 14 – 8

Suggested Bet: MARE OF MT BULLER EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 3

Suggest the locals will have their work cut out matching the imports here with (6) ALALCANCE & (11) BIRDMAN looking very hard to beat. As much as I’m a fan of the former I just feel the step up to 2400m is going to favour (11) BIRDMAN a little more. Good fresh he loomed to win second up however giving away weight to a smart type he just couldn’t get past, it was a dour effort though & keep in mind he’s won up to 2800m overseas, he also drops 6.5kg. (6) ALALCANCE was typically stable tough first up fending off the challengers, he ticked the 2400m box when winning his maiden at the Curragh back in 2023. (1) ATHABASCAN couldn’t get a clear crack last start when held up, don’t underestimate.

Numbers: 11 – 6 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet: BIRDMAN TO WIN/SAVER ALALCANCE.

RACE 4

Well, we get to see the return of (3) AUTUMN GLOW in this race, just as her 3-time Group 1 winning stablemate Lady Shenandoah exits stage left this unbeaten filly who many feel is superior arrives back on the scene. She’s unbeaten with all wins being dominant, no doubt she would have strengthened up over the break & her trials have been soft, had she been let go in either of her past couple I get the feeling she would have cut loose in a big way. I’m expecting that to happen today. (2) ENRICHED is a Group 2 placegetter who has come back in good order, drawn well he should get the right run & can figure in the placings. (15) GANGSTA GRANNY has good upside, another with a favourable barrier draw.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 15 – 6

Suggested Bet: AUTUMN GLOW TO WIN.

RACE 5

(6) VIA SISTINA will go around very short odds in the Group 1 Ranvet which is the race she won last year so impressively. She’s never looked back from that day winning a further 5 Group 1’s & it would be a very brave call to suggest she won’t be making it 6 right here. Terrific first up she then dug deep to win second up & here she is now out to her pet trip. (7) FULL COUNT FELICIA is a Group 1 winner in Canada, that was two back when she opened up a huge lead at Woodbine & kept on going. No official trials, betting? Definite respect for the William Haggis runner (4) AL MUBHIR whilst of the locals (2) FAWKNER PARK was a good effort first up, if anything should have finished closer than the 1.6L margin behind (6) VIA SISTINA.

Numbers: 6 – 7 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet: Exotics – VIA SISTINA TO WIN, box up 7, 4 & 2 to run 2nd, 3rd & 4th.

RACE 6

The Group 1 Rosehill Guineas sees 2 of the first 3 home in the Randwick Guineas lock horns once again, the missing link is the winner Linebacker however (1) BROADSIDING & (3) SWIFTFALCON will fly the flag & I’d suggest the winner will come from that pair. I’ve been taken by both runs handed in by (3) SWIFTFALCON this prep running on from the back of the field, he gets to 2000m which just has to suit. (1) BROADSIDING’s only 2000m run was a 3rd in Via Sistina’s Cox Plate, beaten fair & square by (3) SWIFTFALCON at Randwick however there’s no getting away from that Cox Plate run. Victoria Derby winner (2) GOLDRUSH GURU was strong late at Flemington, more than ready for the 2000m now.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet: SWIFT FALCON TO WIN.

RACE 7

The Group 1 George Ryder looks an absolute cracker of a race. (3) ROYAL PATRONAGE should lead & there’s nothing on paper likely to apply any pressure, should the race pan out that way he’s going to take running down once again. I’m a massive (5) GRINGOTTS fan & have said many times there’s a Group 1 coming his way, whether it’s here at WFA I’m not so sure as I tend to see him as more of a handicapper, terrific first up run, this is definitely harder though. (2) TOM KITTEN is flying he’s another favourite of mine, dropping back in distance likely not ideal. (10) FANGIRL, how can you knock her form, she has the highest final 600m rating in the race, she may need it though should the tempo end up leisurely. What a race, likely all dependant on early tactics.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 10 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

This year’s Golden Slipper is one of the most competitive I’ve seen in recent times; there’s usually one or a few obvious standouts however that’s not the case with the favourite Wodeton almost $5 in most markets. I’m going with (13) TEMPTED however the inside gate is far from ideal, her pattern is to get back which she did when winning the Reisling. She was aided by a good tempo that day & from her wide gate had plenty of room to charge home unimpeded down the outside. Blake Shinn is a champion jockey, he’ll be looking to get clear of the fence asap, I’m happy to put my faith in him. (16) MARHOONA comes out of the same lead-up race & was very good on speed sticking it out well right to the line. Favourable draw, will have improved further & in very good hands, definite threat. I’m including (7) SKYHOOK who was dominant in the Pago Pago last Saturday albeit leading with tempo to suit. Chances certainly don’t end there, (2) DEVIL NIGHT won the Blue Diamond, that form line is strong, (1) RIVELLINO, (9) KING OF POP unbeaten & of course (8) WODETON who has been the rage all along, J. Mac rides, Chris Waller trains, no doubt will be peaking when needing to, tomorrow!

Numbers: 13 – 16 – 7 – 2

Suggested Bet: TEMPTED/MARHOONA TO WIN (small bets).

RACE 9

I’ll be launching into (13) PRIVATE HARRY here who kicks off his autumn prep in the Group 1 Galaxy which is not the strongest of Galaxy’s we’ve seen. Unbeaten to date 4 from 4 he easily accounted for Lady Of Camelot in record time when we last saw him & his lead-up trials have been very good, the first when accounting for Sunshine In Paris & Royal Patronage was excellent, we know how good they are & he had them easily covered. (6) GROWING EMPIRE next best, recent runs suggest he’s not going as well as last prep however getting away from the straight track could be the key, I can’t ignore his final 3 runs last prep & J. Mac jumps on. (11) BRIASA can measure up, trial was good, acid test today.

Numbers: 13 – 6 – 11 – 2

Suggested Bet: PRIVATE HARRY TO WIN.

RACE 10

We lose plenty of class here with Commemorative & Autumn Glow electing to go around earlier in the day. Going to back a couple here first up at value being (3) COCO JAMBOO & (4) ROSE NOIR who come out of the same recent trial clocking in 3rd & 4th respectively. Both were put under no pressure & are well up to winning at this level. (7) OUTBACK MISS the logical runner to beat being only lightly raced & beating all bar Commemorative last start, off the fence late she finished well on that occasion. (5) SHEZANALISTER a top 4 chance, does prefer Randwick though.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 7 – 5

Suggested Bet: COCO JAMBOO/ROSE NOIR EACH-WAY.

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