Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Outstanding day of racing at Randwick on Saturday with plenty of spring stars resuming. Thankfully with no rain in the forecast we should be racing on a Good rated surface, it’s been a while! We kick off with a 1400m Midway where I’m leaning to the 3yo filly (9) CHANGE MY ADDRESS who will take on the older horses for the first time & also see a dry track for the first time. Thought she did enough first up at Group 2 level not shirking her task at all down the straight, the rise to 1400m suits to my eye & she gets in with a postage stamp weight (note Molly Bourke’s riding weight is 51.5kg). (1) DENMAN STAR the toughest to beat dropping back in grade, sound in something stronger last start. (4) TENBURY WELLS resumes, all 4 runs last prep were in either Group 1 or 2 company, massive class drop here.

Numbers: 9 – 1 – 4 – 7

Suggested Bet: CHANGE MY ADDRESS EACH-WAY.

RACE 2

Absolute lottery of a Highway, wouldn’t be taking under $5 about any runner here. (4) KREON wasn’t suited first up on the very heavy track yet he was less than 4 lengths from the winner on the line. His record around this circuit is of concern however he should improve. (1) HIGHWAY STRIP has the right form however not the right gate, had he drawn a better alley he’d be the top tip. There’s a ton of other chances in the race too numerous to mention.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 10 – 15

Suggested Bet: Go as wide as you can with exotics!

RACE 3

I’ve got the resuming (10) SPIRIT OF WEALTH on top here however I wouldn’t be launching into red figures. Dominant winning on debut she again led throughout second outing however was disqualified, third start she didn’t lead & never looked likely although winding up only 4.9L behind Switzerland & co at Group 2 level. Trials have been good; will she be a little vulnerable late? Does she have to lead to win? (1) HUSK has trialled well beating a subsequent winner, won fresh & placed at Listed level last prep. (9) CHIDIAC not without a chance either.

Numbers: 10 – 1 – 9 – 4

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

Difficult race, wouldn’t be the least surprised to see an upset here. I’ll lean to (1) CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD who does have consistency on his side & should be suited by the freshen & drop back 130m in distance. By the same token I wouldn’t have my last on him, or any other runner in the race to be honest. (8) TRAVOLTA is fit & firing, does he need a wet track to produce his best though? Suggest (5) TAJANIS can improve away from a heavy track.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 5 – 6

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 5

I’ve got (9) LORD PENMAN firmly in my black book off his first up 1200m run zooming home from the back. The concern here is the 400m rise in trip off a 3-week break jumping from the extreme outside gate however with (1) BIRDMAN a scratching I’m going to stick, I suppose Chris Waller knows a bit more about the horse (& horses in general) than I do!  (13) SHOHISHA strips fitter, drops in grade & weight, her second up record is a good one, definite threat. (3) WOOTTON VERDI has been costly 2 of his 3 starts since coming from France, maybe a dry track is what he needs?

Numbers: 9 – 13 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet: LORD PENMAN EACH-WAY.

RACE 6

Big field set to go around in the Group 2 Furious for the fillies. I’m sticking with the very much in-form (3) SAVVY HALLIE who was sent to Newcastle first up for a dominant win, she than parked up on speed in the Silver Shadow & just kept on going. The second-paced effort behind Tempted in the Percy Sykes last prep stands out as that filly arguably could have won 2yo of the year honours. Keen to see what (16) APOCALYPTIC does, without doubt should have won on debut if not for being held up, trials ok, market? (1) WITHIN THE LAW doesn’t draw well however is an automatic include every time she runs she’s that consistent. Look for (11) KARINSKA to be hitting the line.

Numbers: 3 – 16 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 7

The Group 2 Chelmsford is loaded with stayers looking to make an impact on the big spring cups down south & no more so than (5) SIR DELIUS who was so impressive at his only Australian run winning the Chairmans at Doomben in the winter. He’s likely to find the 1600m too short however I wouldn’t be writing him off by any means. (2) CEOLWULF is the one, cracking return in the Group 1 Winx when having to come wide & cover plenty of ground, he wound up just under 3L from the star mares Via Sistina & Aeliana who saved all the ground. (10) BIRDMAN has done me no favours however his trials & first up run were all very encouraging suggesting he’s in for a good prep.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 10 – 8

Suggested Bet: CEOLWULF TO WIN.

RACE 8

Not exactly sure what to do here. There’s no doubt in the world (4) LADY SHENANDOAH is the best horse in the race & I’d be surprised should she not add to her Group 1 tally during the spring. However, 1000m first up is definitely short of her best & there’s some flyers engaged. (1) JIMMYSTAR & (5) HEADWALL will get back & run on, the latter has the better 1000m record & I liked his lead-up trial, I’m still filthy on him getting beaten in The Quokka however I’ll stay loyal & stick with him here. (1) JIMMYSTAR will be motoring, he was dominant winning the Oakleigh Plate (1100m) fresh last prep, yet to race over 1000m however I don’t see that being of concern. (3) JEDIBEEL not hopeless.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 9

The Group 2 Tramway is a cracker although also a lottery! He’s been a heartbreaker (15) SWIFT FALCON with his get back & charge home pattern often proving to be the eye-catcher yet doing exactly the same at his next run. I’ve loved both trials & keep in mind he beat all bar Broadsiding first up last prep this track & trip. I can’t catch (2) LINEBACKER however he’s surely well placed here whilst (5) PRIVATE EYE was dominant at Caulfield when resuming. (17) DEPTH OF CHARACTER had a successful winter & is on an upward spiral, could well measure up.

Numbers: 15 – 2 – 5 – 17

Suggested Bet: SWIFT FALCON EACH-WAY.

RACE 10

Keen on the chances of (8) SCINTILLA in this closing race. Not raced since the beginning of March when close up in a feature race down the Flemington straight she has won her 3 prior starts & was unlucky also not to win first up at Canterbury. Nice soft trial leading into this she looked to have plenty more to offer. (1) POINT AND SHOOT & (10) DOMINETTA bring the class however for mine the weight can stop the former whilst the 1200m is likely too sharp for the latter.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 10 – 7

Suggested Bet: SCINTILLA TO WIN.

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