Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing in Sydney on Saturday is at Randwick where we can once again expect a heavy rated surface with the rain returning Friday & looking the heaviest on race day itself.  We again look for the wet trackers! The meeting kicks off with an 1100m Midway where (3) MAL COUPE is the clear ‘swimmer’ of the bunch & he’s also racing in great form. A winner 3 of his past 4 starts they’ve all been on soft/heavy ground, his dry track record reads poorly having yet to place at 4 attempts. (5) RANTAN is racing well without any luck, ready & deserves to win just has to handle the ground which is the unknown. (10) CHANGE MY ADDRESS an interesting runner, definite market watch resuming.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 10 – 2

Suggested Bet: MAL COUPE EACH-WAY.

RACE 2

(4) CAMBAR gets the nod in this week’s Highway. Only lightly raced with an enviable record he’s won on both soft & heavy ground, is unbeaten fresh & gets Tim Clark to steer who rode him to victory at Rosehill first up last prep. (8) NEIL was disappointing in Brisbane last start however does drop back in trip here which will help. (13) NATION CHANGING is unbeaten, has to step it up this afternoon however can’t knock & has been going well at the trials.

Numbers: 4 – 8 – 13 – 3

Suggested Bet: CAMBAR EACH-WAY.

RACE 3

I’m not sure whether the Ciaron Maher trained (5) BEREZKA will turn up here or at Eagle Farm at this early stage. She’s racing very well at present & to my eye looks to be chasing 1400m however she’s either going around here or up north over 1200m. Down in the weights she’s still a chance. (2) REGIMENTAL COLOURS is only lightly raced with a good record, racing up on speed is a definite threat. (8) KARINSKA a big market watch fresh, holds decent 2yo form.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 8 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

Scratched due to the heavy conditions last week & scratched with a vet’s certificate this week we’ll have to wait a little longer to see (3) TUILERIES who ran so well fresh. I’ll side with (5) AMRIEEKIYAH who resumed with a marginal Canterbury win to keep her unbeaten record intact. She beat Pinito two back at Kembla, that filly/mare then went on to almost land a Group 1 in Brisbane during the winter (Oaks) & I cannot wait to see her in the upcoming spring. (1) STARDEEL is flying & proven on wet ground, does appear as the definite danger.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 2 selections in exotics.

RACE 5

(6) BONITA QUEEN has plenty of speed & good fresh record. I can see her being well clear of who I think is her main rival (4) WORLD ALLIANCE halfway down the straight & from there surely she’s going to take plenty of running down. Straight to the front in a recent trial she kept on going accounting for some smart types, yet to see heavy however soft track form is good. (4) WORLD ALLIANCE gets McDonald to steer, if close enough is a definite chance, hasn’t shown any early speed as yet though. (1) DISNECK will be flying home late, charged to the line first up, back in trip not ideal though.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet: BONITA QUEEN EACH-WAY.

RACE 6

2400m on a heavy track, survival of the fittest! I’m going very wide suggesting having something each-way on the big odds runner (11) STYLEBENDER who yes rises in class however is in winning form, drops in weight, will run the trip & half his wins have been on heavy ground. (8) FUNAMBULIST also drops in weight & is a swimmer, definite winning chance. No knock (1) FLAMIN’ ROMANS who is racing well down south & being only fourth up today will still have improvement to come. Wide exotics well worth considering here.

Numbers: 11 – 8 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet: STYLEBENDER EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 7

(2) KERGUELEN’s heavy track record speaks for itself having never missed a placing at 5 attempts which includes 3 wins. He’s winless on any other surface & his last start second behind King Of Roseau now looks very appealing with that galloper winning at Group 3 level last weekend at Flemington. Joins the Joe Pride stable with the exodus of talent from the now closed James Cummings yard. (7) SESSIONS ROAD has done his most recent racing in Melbourne, the wet ground won’t hold any fears for him. Stablemate (12) THEBLADE an interesting runner winning comfortably on debut before failing only other two starts, note returns a gelding.

Numbers: 2 – 7 – 12 – 1

Suggested Bet: KERGUELEN TO WIN.

RACE 8

The day’s feature is the Group 2 Missile Stakes which signals the spring is on our doorstep. Honestly, I can’t see too many winning chances. (1) PRIVATE EYE is very hard to tip against, he’s got lengths on these class wise & gets in so well at the weights on a surface he’s handled well in the past. Lead-up trial was solid, has residual fitness through the Stradbroke just under 2 months back. Interestingly (4) GENERAL SALUTE is yet to see a heavy track, his soft track record is a good one though as is his recent form, definite danger. No knock (2) ROBUSTO bar a very heavy track, he’d prefer it to dry out a little.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet: PRIVATE EYE TO WIN.

RACE 9

Many stayers resuming here with spring/Cups aspirations, how forward will they be? It’s a raffle where I’m going to have something on a couple of resuming imports who I feel can make their mark during the spring & yes I may be going off a run or two too early. (1) MORE FELONS really impressed me in the autumn of 24’ before going amiss, liked his most recent trial & he is a class act. (2) ADELAIDE RIVER returns a gelding & has been going well at the trials, ready for a first up crack. (16) SALCOATS is fit & ready to strike, inside gate? Wouldn’t be surprised to see (11) THALASSOPHILE run a race, loves the very wet ground & has a fitness edge on most having raced over the Brisbane winter.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 16 – 11

Suggested Bet: MORE FELONS/ADELAIDE RIVER EACH-WAY (small bets).

RACE 10

Tough race to wind up the day. (7) PURE ALPHA continues to race well & has a liking for heavy ground, he won’t care how much rain we get & he’s only marginally up in the weights on his last start placing here when just unable to get as wide as the winner did (better going). (3) PUNTIN drops back to the mile which suits, super consistent still with upside. Ex-Victorian now Novocastrian (12) MORNINGTON PIER is a ‘mudder’ who has won both starts for the new yard, must respect.

Numbers: 7 – 3 – 12 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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